BOZmail 13th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet 

SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 13th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +15.2336 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 24.5328 points (+4.5328 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 19.6863 points (+11.6863 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 5.1635 points (+0.1635 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 76/108 = 70.37%  Backs : 19/63 = 30.15%

NO BET

Just wrong I’m afraid about Beat The Judge and one for the market. The money came for him late so some damage limitation but obviously Gary Moore knew more than Gary Boswell on this one. Got to take it on the chin. It had September feel in it I’m afraid with hindsight. That blip will now need to be recovered from.

Not immediately. I’m swerving the meetings at Bath on Sunday and Monday after a good look at them. If I can’t get NH right in September, I sure shouldn’t mess with the flat. Indeed I revert to trading for a couple of days and play O’Brien’s Battleground at the Curragh tomorrow just to engender some succour (see below).

Off to watch the tennis final now. Not betting on that either! Hands in bruised pockets for a day or two.

LIM SCORES FOR SEPTEMBER:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.55

2nd: NO BET

3rd:  -0.345  (-0.149) Lay @ 3.3

4th: NO BET

5th: NO BET

6th:  +0.1764 (+0.0274) Lay @ 1.84

7th: NO BET

8th:  -0.1       (-0.0726) Back @ 12.0

9th:  +0.3234 (+0.2508) Back @ 3.2

10th: NO BET

11th: NO BET

12th: -0.465 (-0.2142) Lay @ 2.86

13th: NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Curragh (Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon 

TO FOLLOW HORSE at Curragh Sunday:

4-10 Battleground @ 11/4 – 0.25pt BACK

Take the best price that you can get and hedge as appropriate and when preferential odds are offered.

This looks a three horse affair for determining the winner and my race read doesn’t suggest Battleground the most likely winner on times and back form. The O’Brien factor however with more improvement still to come going up to the top grade, says I stick with him. As a trade anyways. Back at the best price you can get and hedge when appropriate and/or when you get offered preferential odds. I may keep a smidgeon for an in play trade with the feeling that he’s gonna run a big race. Not sure about winning but there at the death I’d say.

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo – Entered @ Hexham (Sep 15) & Kelso (Sep 16)

Pisgah Pike 

Hiconic – Entered @ Lingfield on the flat (Sep 12)

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie 

Little Jessture 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press – Entered @ Kelso (Sep 16)

Samsons Reach 

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10)

Longhouse Sale 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius Entered @ Kelso (Sep 16)

Calum Gilhooly

The Butcher Said

NH TO FOLLOW HORSE on SATURDAY at FONTWELL:

3-25 ASHUTOR – 0.1pt BACK @ 5/2 -3rd

P/L = -0.1pt

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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