BOZmail – 13th NOVEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 13th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 60.481 points after month 11 (+40.481 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +14.3557 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +62.418 points

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LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

2-55 BANGOR

LIM is busy in repair mode and this contributes to that as a secondary consideration on Wednesday as all eyes are really on Lady Bowes at Ayr (see below). The Wolf won easily for Olly Murphy FTO at Fakenham but this is a big step up in class and against several heavyweights who will demand a big run to win. So at 13/8, a very short fav to my eye and thus a lay. No visible heavy ground form either whereas the top weight Chti Balko – my idea of the winner – has competed at much higher level and although been a tad frustrating lately is second time back from wind op here and also has heavy ground form to recommend. Burrows Park is on his mark with form in the conditions and Venetia’s horses still on song whilst both Joke Dancer and Liberty Bella can be given a chance on their comeback runs if returning in win mode fettle.

So a decent LIM shout but as I say, a secondary race for me on the day as I turn to the bumper at Ayr.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on THE WOLF (around 2.8 : no greater than 3.0)

0.1pt BACK on CHTI BALKO (around 4.0)

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 191/289 = 66.08% :   BACKS: 52/192 = 27.08%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    +0.343 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.6

2nd:   +0.245 (+0.588) Lay @ 2.62

3rd:    +0.098 (+0.656) Lay @ 4.2

4th:    NO PLAY DAY

5th:    +0.096 (+0.752) Lay @4.4 : Back @ 3.85

6th:    +0.147 (+0.899) Lay @ 1.75

7th:    +0.196 (+1.095) Lay @ 4.2

8th:    +0.343 (+1.438) Lay @ 2.1

9th:    -0.475 (+0.963) Lay @ 2.9

10th:  -0.3425(+0.6205) Lay @ 1.97 : Back @ 5.0

11th:  +0.144 (+0.7645) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 5.0

12th:  +0.196 (+0.9605) Lay @ 3.85

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.75 points. 

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Al Dancer

La Bague au Roi – Entered for the King George & The Gold Cup!

Unwin VC 

Commodore Barry 

Kaizer 

Tea Clipper 

Nube Negra 

Black Op – Entered for Stayers Hurdle (Mar 12)

Verdana Blue

Maire Banrigh – Entered for Bangor(Nov 13)

Wenceslaus 

Tokaramore 

Flic Ou Voyou 

Thyme Hill

Nordano 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes – Entered for Ayr (Nov 13)

Floressa 

Vinndication –Entered for King George & Gold Cup!

Lostintranslation – Entered for Haydock (Nov 23),King George,Ryanair & Gold Cup

Cat Tiger – Entered for Haydock (Nov 23)

Welsh Saint 

Normandy Soldier

Virginia Chick – Entered for Exeter(Nov 13)&Sedgefield (Nov 14)

Ribble Valley

Kid Commando

Up The Straight

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HORSES TO FOLLOW/WATCH ONLY on TUESDAY:

1-20 LINGFIELD – CAT TIGER – 2nd

Ran well so the one that beat him – whilst maybe a heavy ground merchant – goes on the list. As impressive as Kid Commando was. Like me bumpers when they go like that. Excellent window into future NH stars.

HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on WEDNESDAY:

2-35 EXETER – VIRGINIA CHICK  @ 7/1 – 0.1pt BACK

3-50 AYR – LADY BOWES @ 9/4 or better – 1pt BACK

Going in on Lady Bowes to my full 1pt starting stake with a view to trading in running.

It is still getting to know you time with her and those antics before the off, the slight flat spot she hits mid race and the heavy going (scoop hoof action is perhaps better suited to soft ground rather than the flat concrete effect of heavy) so she is not in the cert category that would have seen her in the staggered acca for this race. But she is my number one getting to know you horse at the moment – this being my primary way of following, part owning (only in the metaphorical sense), betting on and tipping horses. By getting to know them personally. I do this mostly with Jimmy’s yard living nearby (Morning Royalty and Munsaab the two in recent years that have become personal friends) but I have been known to do same with Henderson’s (Sprinter Sacre and at the moment Verdana Blue) if they strike me as worthy of it. Lady Bowes arrested my attention in the first place you’ll remember because of the recent history of her owners (who landed stable touches with both Highland Lodge in the Bechers and Bon Chic at Aintree) and then the run at Carlisle landing 2nd at 100/1(40/1 place on Betfair) means she has already paid for anything I might lose betting her in the future! Whilst I think things like winning the Grand National in 2024 might be in her crystal ball. That’s the feeling she has given me already, dreamer that I am!

The hard analytical Boz says the form of the Carlisle run was visually impressive (despite the flat spot) and has been boosted since by the third who won here NTO.

That won’t have gone unnoticed and Lady B may well be fav here so I take half stake tonight as soon as prices are out. But I save half for tomorrow in case the usual drift on Jimmy’s horses happens. Historically it does unless stable cash is heavily down.

And there are some in the race that could beat her.Timetoroe and Orient Sunset already have form that puts them not far away and its a bumper so there are a few who could be anything. The ground anyway also suggests that aspect. Who will handle heavy best? That’s why I’m trading rather than betting. But I’ll be trading heavy because this is a horse I believe in. Am dreaming about. Am investing love and emotion into. Why I play the game. Probably my bet of the year so far win or lose. There will be a roar if its the former!

How you play is up to you. I’m having my watch and see stake on Virginia Chick (£10) because she is of interest too but much less so. I shan’t get to know her like I already know Lady Bowes. She beat Commodore Barry and carries a penalty for it so is an unlikely winner really but could also be something special. Far too much early days to be sure but if she wins this it will also be feather in cap time.

Both are the usual advice. Back at the best price you can and hedge back when offered preferential odds. But mainly enjoy. And in Lady B’s case remember that you might be watching a future Grand National winner!! 

P.s. prices just appeared and she’s 7/2 joint second fav so I’m straight in at half stake to that. Timetoroe a 13/8 fav which seems mighty short. Could be laying that. The dark horse for me is Richards’ She’s A Rocca who is also 7/2. We have the stable jock on ours and the conditional is on She’s a Rocca which is undoubtedly interesting. I will be professionally trading the race by the looks now I’ve seen the market. I know some things the market doesn’t! Them’s the ones you want!! Enjoy!

PLANS for the 2020 BOZmail:

The main development for next year is an annual subscription service only which will become available for purchase from December 1st 2019 and will be limited to first 150 purchasers. Membership will be closed when that number is reached or on January 31st 2020. Activity will begin on 1st February 2020.

The 2020 service will not be covering horseracing during January 2020 nor September 2020 as statistics have shown these to be negative months for LIM.

The 2020 BOZmail cycle will thus be a 10 month cycle completing on December 31st 2020.

The reason for annual subscription membership only is so that all members will be at same bank management level throughout. This enables The Boz to practice greater profit reinvestment in his staking levels (thus increasing overall profitability). Something that has not been possible in the 2019 cycle where new members were joining all the time and members were thus at varying bank levels throughout – leading The Boz to be more cautious in his staking levels than was ideal.

Membership of the 2020 BOZmail is recommended for those with some experience of how the service works although new members will be admitted up to the subscription closing date on January 31st 2020 if places are still available. First chance to purchase subscription however will be made to current members only. The service will only be advertised to non members after December 31st 2019 if some places are still available. The capping of numbers for the service is hopefully self explanatory to those who have experience of the service.

There will be some changes to content although the main focus will remain on the daily LIM service and the to follow trading advices in UK horse racing. Tennis coverage of the women’s Grand Slams will be limited to Wimbledon and the French Open only in 2020. There will be ad hoc accumulator advices throughout the cycle as they arise. The staggered acca approach practised in 2019 however will be discontinued. Simply hasn’t been as successful as hoped.

Never afraid to cull its dead wood is the BOZmail!

There are plans to introduce a paddock watching element to the service and to organise various days at the races during the year for those interested in advancing paddock watching skills and using these as an enhancement to their punting profitabilty generally. Details of these days will be available to BOZmail annual subscriber members only and will come at no extra charge (other than responsibility for paying own course entrance fee). The Boz is also publishing a guide to UK paddock watching in 2020 and will thus be in attendance at all UK racecourses at some point during the year collecting material for the book.

If you have any questions or queries about 2020 BOZmail annual membership at this stage, please feel free to contact The BOZ direct as always via email (garyboswell@hotmail.com). TGH Trading will be in touch in the coming weeks with personal invites to all current members to purchase first chance 2020 membership detailing cost etc. Opening date for purchasing 2020 membership will be December 1st 2019. First come,first served. 

With thanks to all who have supported the service in 2019 and here’s to a highly profitable and enjoyable 2020!

Cheers

THE BOZ

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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