BOZmail 13th NOVEMBER

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Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

FRIDAY NOVEMBER 13th  2020

LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 107/146 = 73.28%  Backs : 29/93 = 31.18%

2-25 CHELTENHAM

Straight back on the bike after Wednesday’s reverse and another LIM forecast for you if you availed yourself of that. Maybe the better of my two ideas for development for next year although I haven’t totally put the staggered acca to bed. Just that thing that dogged it last time I brought in on to the BOZmail. Murphys Law would never leave it alone! Who can forget Waiting Patiently in the King George? Don’t think I’ll ever get over that!

The start of a busy and fabbo three days at Cheltenham over the weekend and we kick off with an LIM there on Friday. This Novices Chase will depend on the jumping and Protektorat was sensational in that department LTO at Carlisle very much in classic Skelton mode. Carlisle isn’t Cheltenham however and Protekorat will have it to prove here where Skelton’s string notoriously do have some issues with the fences. I often think Skelton’s jump like show jumpers so can look spectacular at some of the easier NH tracks. Cheltenham however rewards the puissance horse less so than the battle hardy scrapper. You still gotta jump but there is hurly burly and undulating ground and drop fences all designed to catch the less wary jumpers out.

You ain’t a Cheltenham horse until you’ve proved you can jump it and although Protektorat won here over hurdles, that also means nothing in the jumping fences department at HQ. Mossy Fern had as good if not better hurdles form than the Skelton horse and Twiston Davies’ horses have just started winning in the past few days and so he is going to be dangerous at Twisty’s home track. Unlike Protektorat, he jumped a stinker in his debut but it was here and in the hot Galvin race behind Soldier of Love and although beaten 23 lengths, I expect him to come on for that and unlike Skelton of course Twisty buys horses to perform well in the hurly burly here. I expect Mossy Fen to progress in the battle hardening sense and not without a chance of winning here if that jumping has improved. And we have Southfield Stone as well to get the fav beat with. Nicholls’ horses remain in rude health and this one improved for his wind op LTO and looks to be the steady grinder type to take advantage if Protektorat gets flighty over his fences. There is also jockey consideration. Cobden over Skelton and STD every time!

So not as bullish about taking on this fav as the past couple of days but laying the unproven Protektorat is nevertheless the thing and the considered play for the day.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on PROTEKTORAT (around 2.3 or lower if you can get it)  

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Wild Polly

Straw Fan Jack 

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike – Entered @ Cheltenham (Nov 15)

Young Wolf

Sirobbie    

Soldier of Love (3m 2f) – Entered @ Cheltenham (Nov 15)

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive 

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said – Entered @ Cheltenham (Nov 15)

Mrs Hyde 

Return Ticket(flat track)

Carroll’s Milan – Entered @ Uttoxeter (Nov 14)

Prettylittlething – Entered @ Newcastle (Nov 13) & Fontwell (Nov 15)

Boothill

Al Dancer – Entered@ Cheltenham (Nov 14) & King George (Dec 26)

Onemorefortheroad – Entered@ Taunton (Nov 12) & Fontwell (Nov 15)

Eldorado Allen – Entered @ Cheltenham (Nov 14)

For Pleasure – Entered @ Cheltenham (Nov 15)

Fidelio Vallis (softish ground) – Entered @ Cheltenham (Nov 15)

Ucanaver – Entered @ Cheltenham (Nov 14)

Ribble Valley

Shan Blue

Snow Leopardess – Entered @ Uttoxeter (Nov 14)

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy)

Summerville Boy

Ga Law

Hitman

NH HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on THURSDAY:

1-30 Taunton – OneMorefortheroad – @ 5/1 – 0.25pt BACK

Backed @ 4.0 : hedged 0.45pt @ 2.22 : P/L = 0.196points

Never got the high price I was after and when I saw the serious money coming, I simply waited and took as low as I could before the off. The market knew that Diocletian wasn’t going to be ready (finished a respectable 4th) but like me, underestimated the two big yard runners both of whom ran stormers albeit a bit green.

OneMorefortheroad ran ok to the each way chance predicted but hit a flat spot and Bryony never able to dictate as she would have liked. Stayed on but outclassed and but for that market move, you’d have said ran a decent debut over the hurdles. Very clear watching that it was a debutant’s performance. Should improve but maybe not quite as good as they and I expected. Gets one more chance on the list.

NH HORSE TO FOLLOW on FRIDAY:

2-33 NEWCASTLE – PRETTYLITTLETHING @ 3/1 – 0.15pt BACK

I am inclined to go back only on this as jockey would be the only real worry although she’s acquitted herself ok on it in the warm-ups and this would be it’s chance I’d say if it is going to win again for the to follow. Stayed the distance well LTO. A couple of dangers in the field but I take the gamble chance as part of my push on for profit in this latter part of the 2020 cycle – reinvesting some of the previous winnings. Just need the horses to win now. Do so much trading these days that I forget about that aspect of things!

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

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LIM Scores for November:

1st: +0.049 (+0.049) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 8.8

2nd: NO BET

3rd: +0.1543 (+0.2033) Back @ 2.05

4th:  NO BET

5th:  +0.098   (+0.3013) Lay @ 1.98 : Backs @ 9.0 & 51.0

6th:  +0.4312 (+0.7325) Lay @ 3.4 : Backs @ 6.8 & 13.5

7th:  +0.196   (+0.9285) Lays @ 4.0 & 3.35

8th:  +0.098   (+1.0265) Lay @2.1 : Back @ 8.4

9th:  +0.4606 (+1.4871) Lay @ 3.7 : Back @ 4.2

10th: +0.294 (+1.7811) Lay @ 2.04

11th: – 0.364  (+1.4171) Lay @ 2.04

12th: +0.196  (+1.6131) Lay @ 2.0 : Back @ 4.0

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +45.1852 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 29.5159 points (+9.5159 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 45.4198 points (+37.4198 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.3985 points (-0.6015 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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