BOZmail – 13th MAY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

MONDAY MAY 13th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stands at 40.8925 points after month 5

LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

3-15 KEMPTON

Just need to catch a break at the moment but when it goes like this, it goes like this and the break eluded me again Sunday as the weather turned out glorious! The market swayed our way but both our boys needed that cut to get competitive and so we drift a bit further into a poor month and the more the need for a winner, the harder it becomes. Feels like a need for change again and the tennis is on the horizon so I’ll soldier on a few more days with the system that really just isn’t firing at the moment to see if I can’t land that value winner. If I don’t, it could be a total switch to tennis for a while. Done it before when the horse picking gets stale. A need for barley water and tennis shorts to freshen things up! Watched Kiki Bertens win well in Madrid. That’s more like it!

This has the look of an LIM race on paper so I haven’t deserted the gee-gees just yet. Kilcara was a lucky winner LTO with his rival crashing through the last and losing all chance and he gets a 7lb penalty to shoulder for that which may be asking a tad of the Scott horse whose stable has also drifted out of favour a bit in the past fortnight.

Tizzard’s Shoal Bay is interesting on Chase debut and topweight Monty’s Award sparkles on the page if it turns out he can jump but I’ll stick with the experience angle and I do think Templepark is the value. Wasn’t disgraced on debut and goes over further here which ought to suit. Stable in decent nick and hurdle times read well against the field so if the tissue of 13/2 stays around, I’ll take him to try and turn my corner.Minimum stakes still though to limit potential for further damage. Bank management crucial when the frustration phase is in.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on KILCARA (around 3.5 : no greater than 3.8)

0.1pt BACK on TEMPLEPARK  

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This month plays so far:

1st:   -0.455 (-0.455) LAY @ 2.82

2nd:  -0.3    (-0.755) LAY @ 1.6

3rd:   -0.628 (-1.383) LAY @ 2.76 : BACK @ 34.0

4th:   -0.8    (-2.183) LAY @ 3.4 : BACK @ 7.0

5th:   +0.095 (-2.088) LAY @ 1.95 : BACK @ 9.0

6th:   -0.3    (-2.388) LAY @ 2.2

7th:   +0.095 (-2.293) LAY @ 1.94 : BACK @ 5.1

8th:   +0.19  (-2.103) BACK @ 1.95

9th:   -0.825  (-2.928) LAY @ 3.25 : BACK @ 8.4

10th: NO PLAY DAY

11th:  +0.195 (-2.733) LAY @ 2.92

12th:  -0.24  (-2.973) LAY @ 1.6

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 99/144 = 68.75% :   BACKS: 23/92 = 25%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

King of Comedy – Entered for St James Palace,Ascot (June 18)

Land of Legends – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Edaraat

Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for the Yorkshire Cup (May 17) & Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Sir Dragonet

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.8478 points.

Staggered acca number 10: (LEG 3)

Will shout soon as next leg emerges

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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