BOZmail – 13th MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service 

AT THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL (DAY FOUR) 

including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

FRIDAY MARCH 13th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 22.3056 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 10.0441 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 5.01 points

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LESS IS MORE: Friday play

1-55 FAKENHAM

I was contemplating heading up to Hexham on Thursday if Spring showed its face but instead we had an ice storm overnight round Cartmel and a wind that seriously blew up in the morning. You probably saw the screens on course being used as kites! Never seen that image before. The weather negates again and winter far yet from being over. Slight arithmetic adjustment to yesterday’s LIM score in my figures by the way. I forgot to allow for the Dynamite Dollar loss! Spent ages blaming Betfair for the discrepancy in my cash balance! Indicative of how manic it gets in Cheltenham week!

Another form boost for Black Op at Cheltenham (after Champ yesterday) with Lisnagar Oscar a shock winner of the stayers. Well done if you found that one. Black Op absent from the Festival I know not why. Keep eyes out for him in weeks ahead. Simply The Betts’ win also gave me the clue how to play LIM on Gold Cup day (good luck to Lostintranslation. Not as bullish as I was but standing by him to have a good run at the Cup). Coole Well on the Simply The Betts formline and looks the class in this if he appreciates the come back down to hurdles. Swaffham Bulbeck is a course and distance winner and well treated in this but the price puts me off if he’s odds on as they forecast early. I wouldn’t want him at that price. One of the Bozmailers is in the syndicate that owns him and I have tracked him since being alerted to the horse. Sorry that I’m going against him here and hope that doesn’t make for any dilemmas betting wise! A few of you have mentioned the difficulties when I tip against one of your fancies during Cheltenham week. No advice on that from me I’m afraid. I’m busy being as impartial as possible and writing what I know and think. Up to you to identify when I ought to be overruled! Swaffham just  too short for his chance on my assessment. The Murphy factor at the track perhaps. Coole Well big danger and better value (preferred jockey too) whilst Twistys isn’t out of it and in form Tommo has a runner getting weight in it aswell.

Not found the overlooked longshot I was looking for on Gold Cup day although I did stare long at Stowaway Magic in the second at Fakenham. Will have missed one if that comes in but ultimately was unable to crab the fav in that who is another who looks the class in the race.

So simple lay of the day for me on Friday.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on SWAFFHAM BULBECK (around 2.0 or less if offered)  

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 19/31 = 61.29%  Backs: 8/24 = 33.33%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for MARCH:

1st:    +0.196 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.2

2nd:   -0.04   (+0.156) Lay @ 1.4

3rd:    +0.047 (+0.203) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 7.4

4th:    +0.146 (+0.349) Lay @ 2.1 : Back @ 5.2

5th:    -0.435 (-0.086)  Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 34.0

6th:    +0.735 (+0.649) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 12.0

7th:     -0.34 (+0.309) Lays @ 4.9 & 1.66 : Backs @ 9.0 & 24.0

8th:     +0.22 (+0.529) Lay not matched : Back @ 3.2

9th:     -0.208 (+0.321) Lay @ 1.79 : Back @ 4.1

10th:   -0.1 (+0.221) Back @ 12.0

11th:   +0.735 (+0.956) Lay @ 1.28 : Backs @ 10.0 & 13.0

12th:    RACING ABANDONED

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op 

Verdana Blue 

Maire Banrigh*  

Thyme Hill* 

Nordano* – Entered for Kempton & Uttoxeter (Mar 14)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Lostintranslation* 

Cat Tiger* – Entered for  Kempton (Mar 14)               

Welsh Saint* – Entered for Kempton (Mar 14)

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih – Entered for Kempton (Mar 14)

Magic of Light* – Entered for Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco*

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill – Entered for Taunton (Mar 17)

Quick Wave 

It’safreebee – Entered for Carlisle & Market Rasen (Mar 15) 

Captain Zebo

Ellens Way

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CHELTENHAM TO FOLLOWS/TRADES & ACCAS for DAY THREE:

2-10 WELSH SAINT – 0.05pt BACK @ 8/1

(Backed@10.0 : Hedged@7.0) = P/L = 0

         JATILUWIH      – 0.05pt BACK @ 20/1

(Backed@32.0 : Hedged @ 23.0) = P/L = 0

Both hedged before the off as free bets. Enjoyed a stress free watch! Shortlist picked the winner from two selections. I bow as ever to its greater knowledge in races like this!

CHELTENHAM TO FOLLOWS/TRADES & ACCAS for DAY FOUR:

2-50 Thyme Hill – 0.15pt BACK @ 9/2

         Lieutenant Rocco – 0.1pt BACK @ 20/1

         Cat Tiger – 0.05pt BACK @ 40/1

3-30 Lostintranslation – 0.15pt BACK @ 13/2

Take the best price you can and hedge when offered preferential odds either before the off or in running.

Not often I have three trades in the same race and will be aiming to hedge all three before the off if possible.Less bullish about Thyme Hill than I was before the week began. Don’t really have the speed of thought and reaction to manage three in running these days. Will probably leave Lostintranslation to an in running but not if the opportunity for free bet is a good one before the off. Less bullish about him also with the wind op and the King George negatives added to by his failing to make the shortlist. I retain the faith because I shall be mortified if he wins and I haven’t but, as I say, less bullish than I was when I wrote on New Year’s day! With the day’s acca already bound up in the Yankee double it is a day for conservative trading only methinks. Just noticed that it’s Friday the 13th!… Just a date I know. Wish I wasn’t a black country boy sometimes!

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WIN YANKEE FOR THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 11/2 (Gold Cup,Friday)

Sporting John @ 3/1 (Ballymore,Wednesday) – 7th

Marie Banrigh @ 12/1 (Arkle,Tuesday) – FELL

Thyme Hill @ 4/1 (Albert Bartlett,Friday)

0.01pt WIN YANKEE : Total Stake = 0.11points 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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