BOZmail – 13th JUNE

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

THURSDAY JUNE 13th  2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stands at 43.0503 points after month 6

LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

7-20 UTTOXETER

BOZmail rule number 4 came into play Wednesday with the Bermeo price drifting well away from parameters and not coming back and being a massive in play trade back at a high of 28.0 for anyone who did get on. I managed a half stake and I’ll come to my play in a minute. I hope no-one fell for laying to Betfair SP which was a very detrimental 6.6. You were best off out of the lay unless you traded as I got the race read pretty wrong anyways with Riddlestown not turning up and the weather causing havoc with form figures. Got to be watched for a few days now. Some very weird results coming in.

I said I was likely to trade on such an open and volatile race and after just a half stake lay the night before on Bermeo @ 4.4, I took Riddlestown @ 11.0 and Findusatgorcombe @ 4.8 and 0.05pt on Mickieblueeyes @ 26.0 so was -0.15pt the rest of the field on the off and keen to hedge Bermeo in running as my strategy. That proved easy with him hanging out the back early and got my 0.05pt hedged @ 26.0.

My three losers were then -0.2pts and I was 0.44pts plus on Bermeo which proved a sound play as it turned out. I wasn’t worried by West Wizard or Our Reward as written last night. My form study ruled out the former and the in play vision showed the latter an unlikely winner. Ran far too erratic and free. Velvet Cognac was going ok so I hedged a 0.1pt BACK on him @ 4.8 but by that stage Bermeo was travelling like the winner and I sat back and sighed relief. Disaster averted. Why I trade when it looks the way to go. Not always. But I’ll always mention it when it looks likely I’ll play that way. If you did end up losing here because you can’t watch the races, worry not. So long as you avoided the Betfair SP lay as warned, you didn’t do much damage. LIM does require work to make it pay especially at times like these. Current UK weather set to play havoc for a while still yet.

So Thursday is caution time again and this Uttoxeter race is far from a strong call. The tissue makers however put big store on Very First Time coming back to old form in the new hands of Dan Skelton. May well happen but 4/5 is very short and may dip to 8/13 or 8/15 and I’ll take on at that price.

Lord County’s stable ain’t firing but the horse ran well LTO and is serious value on form at 4/1. Alf n’dor could win too if reproducing LTO form despite penalty and whilst he is inconsistent he also represents value and good LIM cover.

Small play due to weather and might consider trade again if Skelton horse hangs out the back in this.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on VERY FIRST TIME (around 1.8 ; no greater than 2.2)

0.1pt BACK on LORD COUNTY

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This month plays so far:

8th:      -0.1 (-0.1) Back @ 4.8

9th:   +1.691(+1.591) Lay @ 2.82 : Back @ 6.0

10th: +0.095(+1.686) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 3.1

11th:  NON-RUNNER NO PLAY

12th:  +0.34 (+2.026) Half LAY @ 4.4 : Back @ 26.0

             — Whole race played as trade–

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 109/162 = 67.28% :   BACKS: 28/104 = 26.92%

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Using the 2.74 profit I posted on the French Open Portfolio (without picking the winner until final stage!) as a pot to play in the Wimbledon warm up events – Nottingham,Edgbaston and Eastbourne. Will be attending for a day at each. Usual portfolio approach on a smaller scale. Outrights only. Starting this week with two in the bottom half of the Nottingham draw.

NOTTINGHAM 2019 OUTRIGHTS PORTFOLIO:

0.25point BACK on MAGDALENA RYBARIKOVA @ 9/1

0.25point BACK on DONNA VEKIC @ 7.6 on Betfair exchange

Some play in the tennis at last and Vekic won her first match.

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

Commodore Barry

Nietzsche

Caius Marcius

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Moonlight Spirit

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Sir Dragonet- Entered for Irish Derby (June 29) & King Edward (June 21)

Raise You

Charl Brune

Barney Roy – Entered for Queen Anne(June 18) & Prince of Wales (June 19)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points.

Staggered acca number 11: (LEG 1)

Will shout when I’m ready to start another go at the acca

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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