BOZmail – 13th JUNE (revised)

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

THURSDAY JUNE 13th  2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stands at 43.0503 points after month 6

LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

2-10 NOTTINGHAM

The weather is indeed set to play havoc for a bit and so I tread forward with caution. Uttoxeter wiped out and this ‘second best’ race I was wary of because of the participation of Frontman and the form unknowns with regard to how entries would handle the forecast heavy ground. Frontman is withdrawn which makes it a two horse affair quite probably and I’m in the mare rather than the colt camp. Maydanny cost an arm, a leg and another appendage and is a serious blue blood colt but ran pretty green on debut and didn’t quicken on the softened ground at Beverly. Time and form of that race also nothing special and whilst I don’t doubt he’ll come good in time, he isn’t my idea of odds on fav here.

Ocean Paradise was a bit disappointing LTO at Windsor when finishing third as fav under a Ryan Moore power drive but was perhaps a tad unlucky having to switch a furlong out and taking time to get going on the quicker ground. Would have won with another half furlong perhaps and was finishing well.

But quicker ground probably not for her so this squelch might be more up her street. Knee action suggests it. Her debut run was in a screaming hot Newbury maiden on good to soft ground where five of the first six have won since. She is only one who hasn’t. Winner won a Listed and then ran in a Group One. The time of the race also outdoes anything Maydanny has achieved yet. That was likely very good form.

I’ll take her to win this. Won’t bother with the lay as Maydanny the only other possible winner unless the weather skews everything again. So a straight fixed odds win bet and no trading today and no risking the bank either!

Recommendation:

0.25pt BACK on  OCEAN PARADISE

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This month plays so far:

8th:      -0.1 (-0.1) Back @ 4.8

9th:   +1.691(+1.591) Lay @ 2.82 : Back @ 6.0

10th: +0.095(+1.686) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 3.1

11th:  NON-RUNNER NO PLAY

12th:  +0.34 (+2.026) Half LAY @ 4.4 : Back @ 26.0

             — Whole race played as trade–

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 109/162 = 67.28% :   BACKS: 28/104 = 26.92%

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Using the 2.74 profit I posted on the French Open Portfolio (without picking the winner until final stage!) as a pot to play in the Wimbledon warm up events – Nottingham,Edgbaston and Eastbourne. Will be attending for a day at each. Usual portfolio approach on a smaller scale. Outrights only. Starting this week with two in the bottom half of the Nottingham draw.

NOTTINGHAM 2019 OUTRIGHTS PORTFOLIO:

0.25point BACK on MAGDALENA RYBARIKOVA @ 9/1 – Eliminated

0.25point BACK on DONNA VEKIC @ 7.6 on Betfair exchange

Some play in the tennis at last and Vekic won her first match.Rybarikova retired injured in her first round. Check your bets as my bookmaker has voided that bet.

Different rules different firms. Vekic plays another winnable today and I’m tracking the draw to see if a hedging potential emerges having bet her on the exchange.

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

Commodore Barry

Nietzsche

Caius Marcius

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Moonlight Spirit

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Sir Dragonet- Entered for Irish Derby (June 29) & King Edward (June 21)

Raise You

Charl Brune

Barney Roy – Entered for Queen Anne(June 18) & Prince of Wales (June 19)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points.

Staggered acca number 11: (LEG 1)

Will shout when I’m ready to start another go at the acca

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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