BOZmail – 13th JUNE revised

SORRY FOR THE ERROR IN STAKING AMOUNTS. NOW CORRECTED. IF YOU'VE ALREADY GONE IN. HEDGE OUT FAST! AND THANKS TO THOSE FLAGGING MY ERROR UP. YOU KNOW ME BETTER THAN I DO. DEMENTIA ON ITS WAY I FEAR! BOZ

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk –the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

PLEASE NOTE THE BOZ WILL BE AWAY FROM OFFICE ON SATURDAY 13TH ENGAGED IN AN EMERGENCY DRIVING COMMISSION. SUNDAY’s BOZMAIL MIGHT BE DELAYED IN SUBMISSION UNTIL AS LATE AS MIDDAY ON SUNDAY. APOLOGIES FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.

SATURDAY JUNE 13th  2020 

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LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 19.6165 points (-0.3835 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = +0.085 points

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = -0.2985 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 3/5 = 60%  Backs : 0/3 = 0%

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LESS IS MORE: 

1-50 NEWBURY

Well it proved not a very close call on Friday and it’s results like that of course that both encourage and infuriate. Things are slowly improving but the caution was completely unwarranted. The thing I got right but underestimated is that the Tim Easterby stable is under a serious cloud. Winter Power got beat for second by one he trounced LTO. Something not right there. So it remains a case of watching and storing the info. This volatile spell will end and then we’ll be armed with some good ammo I feel.

More to choose from on Saturday and I feel emboldened by this class 3 handicap at Newbury enough to bring out my double lay weapon in an attempt to get the month back on track. The main premise is a skewed market in my eyes. Tissue favourite It’s Good to Laugh is held on direct formline by the outsider Man of the Night and has the added negatives of unknown at the distance(breeding not shouting out for further) and stable not in great fettle. Second favourite Morisco has won twice but looks sternly handicapped off 93 and is another not obviously shouting out for the further distance although some stamina in dam’s sire.Must give weight to the two against the field I prefer which are Johnston’s Gold Souk and Prescott’s Tell Me All and if you really want to play in the market in this, you might include Hannon’s outsider Man of The Night as well who does look value at 7/1.

Sort of market that might change radically between now and off time so early prices are advised. I’m having a go to try and right my book at the moment.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on ITS GOOD TO LAUGH (around 3.0)

0.1pt LAY on MORISCO (around 4.4)

0.05pt BACK on GOLD SOUK(4.5 at time of writing)

0.05pt BACK on TELL ME ALL(6.0 at time of writing)

LIM Scores in June:

5th:  -0.355 (-0.355) Lay @ 2.02 : Back @ 9.4

6th-8th: NO BETS

9th:  +0.048 (-0.307) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 14.0

10th: +0.0735 (-0.2335) Lay @ 6.0

11th:  -0.23     (-0.4635) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.2

12th: +0.098  (-0.3835) Lay @ 1.66

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Frankly Darling – Entered for The Oaks (July 4)

Muker – Entered for York (Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Martineo

Malotru

English King – Entered for The Derby (July 4)

Ransom

Run Wild

Virgin Snow

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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