BOZmail – 13th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY JULY 13th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stood at 43.0503 points after month 6

Stands at 48.248 points after month 7

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS POT TO PLAY WITH AT WIMBLEDON:

Current Total      = +8.8313 points

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Not getting involved in the final after all. Do think Halep can give it a go and she did get close in Melbourne earlier in the year but that was on her surface of hardcourt. Plays the queen on grass here and Serena holds a 9-1 back score so it will take a massive improvement from Halep or a surrender from Serena to effect the shock. Shouting for Serena to protect my winnings at Wimbledon! Always enjoy the irony of that!

My outrights portfolio for Wimbledon 

My personal position is thus:

Serena Williams: 0.75pt LAY @ 7.8 : 0.2pt BACK @ 17.0 : 0.45pt @ 6.6 

= Current P/L :  +0.02

Simona Halep: + 0.75 points – 0.6 points – 0.2 points -0.45 points 

= Current P/L:  -0.5

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LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

2-25 NEWTON ABBOT

Was involved in a panel debate today on how long a horse race betting system should be proofed or watched before you start actually betting it. I was in the at least 12 months camp and there were some numpties advocating 6 weeks whilst the so called shrewdies were in the 3 months camp. I’m adamant that’s too short having watched seasonal variations for many years. I mentioned that my first time customers were today coming to a system that had a 66 year proofing and jokingly said even that is not long enough! But in confidence to you guys, I can confirm that it is really! That strike rate I mentioned yesterday now stands at 48.67% over 66 years (8 years of which I wasn’t born in! It outdates my elder brother also!). Thanks Dad.

Put it under your hat if you hadn’t heard of it before. Keep it for yourself and ultimately, you never really need to back anything else! You are a stronger gambler than me though if you stick to that! 

I’m straight in again tomorrow to play up winnings on a similar type of bet with slightly less confidence but keen on it nevertheless.

Ostensibly a match race as Candyman Can only wins if the other two fall over. Novice Chase though so never rule that out! Pingshou shades it on hurdle form due to his Aintree black type win that has worked out ok formwise in the chasing sphere. The Unit was in third that day and he’s turned out smart.

Pingshou however made a serious horlicks of the last at Newton Abbot LTO so jumping reliability does indeed come into considerations. I saw Ennistown win with a double handful at Cartmel LTO beating my fancy that day you may remember. He didn’t jump perfect either though but Francky Du Berlais ran to form and expectation so it was impressive stuff from Ennistown under a masterclass ride from Coleman. Ennistown also has hurdle form to boast about that isn’t that far behind Pingshou and his chase times so far are preferable. That was a quick time indeed at Cartmel nearly five seconds above standard. Not to be sniffed at.

So Ennistown is the value and the fancy here but I revert to laying Pingshou at the prices just in case they both make a horlicks of their jumping! Pingshou currently 4/9 and may go shorter so BOZmail rules 1 and 4 both in sharp focus again today.

Recommendation:

0.75pt LAY on PINGSHOU (around 1.44 : no greater than 1.7)

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This month plays so far:

1st:  +1.005 (+1.005) Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 8.6

2nd: -0.636 (+0.369)  Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 4.5

3rd:  +0.145(+0.514)  Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

4th:   +0.145(+0.659) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @11.0

5th:    -0.4 (+0.259) Lay @ 3.0

6th:    +0.88 (+1.139) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.2

7th:   +0.643(+1.782) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 3.0

8th:   +0.932(+2.714) Lay @ 1.33 : Back @ 6.4

9th:   – 0.645(+2.069) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 7.0

10th: +0.196(+2.265) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @6.0

11th:   -0.33 (+1.935) Lay @ 1.72 : Back @ 7.0

12th:  +0.675(+2.61) Back @ 3.25

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 124/186 = 66.66% :   BACKS: 36/126 = 28.57%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate 

Commodore Barry

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Goodwood Cup (July 30)

Sir Dragonet – Entered for the QIPCO (September 14)&Irish St Leger (Sep 15) 

Raise You

Charl Brune

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered in the Juddmonte (Aug 21)

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick – Entered at Windsor (Jul 15)

Light Up Our Stars 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.0 points.

Staggered acca number 14: (LEG 1)

Will shout when the next opportunity emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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