BOZmail 13th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 


MONDAY JULY 13th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 20.4197 points (+0.4197 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 14.0733 points (+6.0733 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.485 points (-0.515 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +5.509 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +9.7966 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 19/26 = 73.07%  Backs : 2/10 = 20%

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LESS IS MORE: 

4-40 KEMPTON

Both Bangor race reads went as forecast (although I wouldn’t have picked Licklighter as a winner but the market did that job for us) and I will start to look at upstaking on NH fare from now on and getting LIM back on track and trying to make up for some of the lost time. The lay strike rate since my lapse from 13th – 15th June is pretty impressive and it has not gone unnoticed by a few of you – nor me either – that the trading LIM when not confident enough to gamble is no bad idea long term on the daily treadmill for the purpose of building long winning (or should I say plus profit) streaks. Something positive comes out of all this after all!

Back to jumps and traditional LIM on Tuesday as we go through a spell of one day on one day off with NH and I’m sticking to trade only on the flat. Very tight between Live Stream and Rhoda’s Choice here on collateral course and distance form. Half a second between them and Rhoda benefits for being beaten a nose by carrying 7lb less here. That should swing it. Even so, lockdown factors abound still in flat racing. Race framing,course selection and bias and the sense of manipulation in my nostrils that won’t go away. Some very weird stuff at both Yarmouth and Epsom recently. Shortlist also in flip mode and I watched some total unpredictables at Lingfield on Sunday. Seems more like September stuff still to me on the flat. I know not entirely why. You’d have thought it would have settled after six weeks or so. Something about the absence of summer tracks (where’s Brighton gone?) that troubles me.

So I stay on my trade only bent on the flat. Up to you whether you follow suit. I would in more stable times be happy to go traditional LIM here. It looks a clear play on paper. Several through that ropey spell in June did too. I remain cautious and slightly untrusting on the level. I’ve always been one to trust NH more.

So I lay Live Stream with her penalty but I hedge when appropriate and preferential odds appear. Take the best price that you can. 

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on LIVE STREAM ( around 3.3. Take the best price you can get and hedge when appropriate and when preferential odds appear)

 LIM Scores in July:

1st:  +0.1054   (+0.1054) Lays @ 2.22 & 2.4 : Backs @ 3.1 & 2.56

2nd: -0.126      (-0.0206) Lay @ 1.48 : Backs @ 16.0 & 40.0

3rd:  +0.0232   (+0.0026) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 1.96

4th:   +0.1313  (+0.1339) Lay @ 2.76 : Back @ 4.0

5th:   -0.1         (+0.0339) Back @ 3.0

6th:   NO BET

7th:   +0.098   (+0.1319) Lay @ 2.5

8th & 9th: NO BET

10th: +0.1225 (+0.2544) Lay@ 3.05 : Back @ 5.5

11th: +0.0245 (+0.2789) Lay@ 4.0 : Back @ 5.4

12th: +0.098  (+0.3769) Lay@3.75

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru 

English King 

Ransom

Virgin Snow 

Collinsbay – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for Sandown(July 16) & Newbury(July 19)

On My Way 

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10) & Curragh(Sep13)

Waseem Faris 

Little Chance

Samwell (FR)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Aleatoric

Check My Pulse

Ginstrelli 

Balagan – Entered for Uttoxeter (July 16)

Perle Rose

Ashutor

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat – Entered for Uttoxeter (July 16)

Beholden

TO FOLLOW/TRADE HORSE FOR SUNDAY:

3-25 DEAUVILLE – MALOTRU @ 40/1 – 0.1pt BACK – 3rd

Backed @ 62.0 (averaged) : Hedged 0.15pt @ 28.6 : P/L = +0.049pts

Fancied him a bit the more I looked and well done those that backed each way as he served you a juicy return. Ran a cracker and he’s another string to our bow alongside Muker in a stilted BOZmail on the flat but not an entirely barren one for those of you getting your head round trading. I saved £2 of my stake for the late drift and got some 70/1 before the off and was intending to trade again in running if he got closer to Pinatubo than he actually did. The £2 was dead money as it turned out as although he tracked Pinatubo through to plan, never got close enough to cause an in play trade and an each way fixed odds would have been better with hindsight. Or a play on the place market.Never any regrets though. Made my profit and got another super prospect to follow for the future. He is every bit as good as he has looked after that performance.

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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