BOZmail – 13th JANUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

SUNDAY JANUARY 13th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

 

LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

1-55 SOUTHWELL

Mixed results for my birthday with Friday being a spot on race read but Rocky’s Treasure proving a disappointing to follow recruit for the LIM backs. Took on two good ones but I had expected him to have the stamina kick and class to carry the penalty against them and he loses his place on the to follow list as a result of that effort.

Sunday sees an attempt to keep our 100% record on the all weather going and put the consecutive winning lays streak up to 19. Azari has won well over course and distance last twice but is shooting up the weights as a result and goes up likewise in class here (two grades) and must carry a penalty. Not out of the question but a big ask and has two serious rivals with Vivernus similarly penalised for a good win LTO but slightly ahead on my speed figures and only going up one grade in class. Can therefore be argued as the book form horse and makes Azari’s 5/4 tissue price pretty short.

Especially as I would give Mixboy a shout at beating them both. He wins at this class as a chaser and at similar grade to Vivernus on the flat and also has course and distance form here. Might just lack the flat speed of the other two but makes up for that in getting a strong positive front running ride from the master of that craft Joe Fanning and definitely represents the value in the race at 11/4.

Recommendation:

0.4pt LAY on AZARI

0.1pt BACK on MIXBOY

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 33/38 = 86.84% :   BACKS: 6/24 = 25%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

 

Stands at 15.00 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Willoughby Court *

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Ascot (Jan 19)

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars  

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons *

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  

Benatar *

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication *

Valtor

Ruby Yeats

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera

 

                                      

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.75 points.

 

Staggered acca number 4: (LEG 1)

1-00 DONCASTER – TALKISCHEAP – 0.5pt WIN – WON @ 1/2

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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