BOZmail – 13th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 13th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stands at 25.83 points after month 2

 

LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

2-40 PLUMPTON

So didn’t quite manage the Feb LIM repair work I was hoping for in the sabbatical six days but 0.3pt better off for those six days and no regrets that I kept it going.Always good to get live practice in what are still developing areas for me (tested but not perfected as indeed is all tipping – ever the learning curve and only ever as good as your last winner). Staying in the rhythm is important as indeed is keeping to LIM ideals like very small fields. I get the logic that laying is safer the bigger the field – with more chances of getting the lay beat – but it doesn’t quite work like that for me. Three runner races allow me to get to the real nuts and bolts of a race read and I almost always come out of work on a race like this more confident that I’ve seen the way it will go. Proof will be in the pudding as always but my study has thrown up that Midnight Tune was the best hurdler of these and holds All Currencies from victory in a black type hurdle. And yet I feel All Currencies has proved the more natural and exciting chaser having been entered and gained experience in some top chase races by Gary Moore who also knows what’s what at Plumpton. I’m not surprised the betting is tight in this heat and I fancy All Currencies has a great chance to finish ahead of Midnight Tune.

They could both however play second fiddle to race favourite Good Man Pat who only finished a 14 length third here LTO on chase debut but that race quite simply stands as the best quality novice chase seen so far this season. Master Dino was sensational – as was the time of the race – and Knocknanuss is pretty special too. Good Man Pat will take some beating if replicating that.

At 13/8 second fav, that makes Midnight Tune imminently layable and I take All Currencies as the better chaser as our cover should something go wrong with Good Man Pat.

Big welcome back to British racing and but for the fact that I expect perhaps a week or two before things settle into a rhythm again, I’d be going quite strong stake wise here.

Caution for now as I seek to eradicate the Feb deficit with no wish to make it any worse as the clock on the year’s shortest month winds down.

 

Recommendation:

0.4pt LAY on MIDNIGHT TUNE (around 2.7 and no greater than 3.0)

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 44/61 = 72.13% :   BACKS: 8/41 = 19.51%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 14.5375 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Ryanair Chase (Mar 14)

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Itchy Feet * – Entered for Supreme Novices (Mar 12)

Frodon * – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14) & Gold Cup (Mar 15)

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12) & Queen Mother (Mar 13)

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Benatar

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  – Entered for Punchestown (Feb 10) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication * – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Valtor – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14),Magners & Gold Cup (Mar 15)&National (Apr 6)

Ruby Yeats – Entered for Fontwell (Feb 14),Wincanton (Feb 16)& M.Rasen(Feb 17)

Lostintranslation* – Entered in JLT (Mar 14)

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12)

Happy Diva

Elegant Escape – Entered for Gold Cup (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Kaiser Black

Le Richebourg* – Entered for the Arkle (Mar 12) & JLT (Mar 14)

Parlour Maid

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.75 points.

Staggered acca number 5: (LEG 3)

Awaiting next weapons grade selection. Will shout when it appears.

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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