BOZmail – 13th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THURSDAY FEBRUARY 13th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 20.3693 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 8.1029 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.99 points

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LESS IS MORE: Thursday play

2-30 LEICESTER

No-one can say I didn’t work hard for my first LIM winner of the new cycle! Up at 4am Wednesday morning checking the weather and stats and double checking my time figures on Tigray. Winnings was also boosted by help from BOZmailer David M who likes his all weather and has been talking me through past few days. Can’t tell you how much that helps and as well as the gen on Olly Murphy’s Southwell stats he did me the morale boosting talk you sometimes need in this game. He gets the credit for the double lay aspect as I was initially fighting shy of taking on Adjutant as well. Tigray, however, all my own work and never a more welcome first winner of the new cycle. Trainer/jockey aspect was the key as Appleby remains a master when he’s got his horse back to mark and Curtis in the top two or three jockeys riding on the flat at the moment. The Boz will admit to some juicy shouting him home as I wasn’t looking forward to logging another minus day!

Was that BOZmailer late money that shortened the price on the off I wonder? Was basking in getting my 6.4 when I saw the late plunge happening. So a good market watch for me too. Well over half a million traded on the race. Hope that wasn’t all us! Got 3.04 lay on Princess Harley when the rag withdrew at 8-30am this morning so stood fairly neatly on the play. Only thing that didn’t go right was the forecast but we weren’t too far out on that.

And three of the four crap days corrected. Year back in plus and a chance to consolidate and move on instead of the rearguard action that threatened. Belief and hard work rewarded as ever. Didn’t enjoy that spectre of the losing run mind! Getting too old for that! New Year’s Resolution to make that the last time we have one of those this year!  The double lay. A very useful new tool in the long term armoury. You’ll see it again before the year is out!

Was thinking of calling Thursday a no bet day in light of abandonments at Fontwell and Kelso again and not looking forward particularly to staying on the all weather. But that was when I was in damage limitation mode. Now I’m in consolidating the reprieve mode and keen to press on especially as NH looks set to return at Leicester. Amen to that! 

A very competitive Mares Handicap Chase where Venetia Williams ambitiously sends her Novice Quick Wave under the Stewardship of Brian Hughes and the early 

tissue makes her favourite and one for us to take on. She ran well on British Chasing debut at Warwick in November clocking a decent time and the form has been reasonably franked by Evidence De Thaix who beat her by jumping better. Quick Wave stuttered quite a lot when the pace was upped and lost it on jumping, hanging right and slowing into a fence nervously at a crucial point. May have learned from that but will need to have done for this step up in class. Looks a French Chaser to me likely to take time to adjust to English fences. I’m a Dame Du Soir fan and her form at Hereford has been franked by Colarado Doc and she ran a cracker herself up in class to get close behind King of May. Everlanes also on a good form line behind Annie Mc who has won herself since and then there’s topweight Got Away who if reproducing Cheltenham form behind Mr Whitaker will munch these. Not fired yet this year in better company and had a wind op. If that has worked, 12st 6lb won’t stop her. Outofthis world is also a good one so I’d say Quick Wave has a lot on her plate.Good race in prospect and some gen for the to follow maybe.

Not going daft obviously after Wednesday’s hard won recovery. Keen simply to get the forward momentum of the first few days back on track. 

Recommendations:

0.1pt LAY on QUICK WAVE (around 3.3 : upper value parameter 3.8)

 LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 5/8 = 62.5%  Backs: 1/4 = 25%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for FEBRUARY:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.3

2nd: +0.147 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.28

3rd: +0.196 (+0.539) Lay @ 2.9

4th:  NO BET DAY

5th: NO BET DAY

6th: +0.097 (+0.636) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 15.0

7th: -0.288 (+0.348) Lay @ 1.96

8th:   -0.2 (+0.148) Back @ 2.56

9th: RACING ABANDONED

10th: -0.21 (-0.062) Lay @ 2.4

11th: -0.191 (-0.253) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 14.0

12th: +0.6223 (+0.3693) Lays @ 2.64 & 3.04 : Back @ 6.4

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle & Mares Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Wenceslaus* 

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano – Entered for Ascot (Feb 15)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication 

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Fakenham (Feb 14) Ballymore (Mar 11) & Albert Bart (Mar 13)

Welsh Saint* – Entered for Haydock (Feb 15) & Exeter (Feb 16)

Normandy Soldier* – Entered for Ascot (Feb 15)

Jatiluwih 

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for Navan (Feb 16) &Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco – Entered for Ascot&Wincanton(Feb 15) & Exeter (Feb 16) &

                                    the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

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ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted. 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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