BOZmail – 13th DECEMBER

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Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

THURSDAY DECEMBER 13th 2018

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

 

LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

1-55 WARWICK

Unlucky with Inchcolm who looked held over the last but got an inspired ride from Hughes and sneaked up the rail (was allowed to sadly) to claim it on the hill as the game rag wobbled. No regrets. Staking caution justified so no great damage done and one we took on and nearly got beat. Name of the game sometimes. Defeats do have to be factored in.

Bank management kicks in Thursday now to repair and recover asap without knee jerk reaction. I intend to play tactically in this 1-55 Warwick as there looks a possible value back worth pursuing in Muckle Roe. Course and distance horse who has been trawling in better races to get back down to his winning mark and comes now to the scene of his regular successes to try and get back in the winning groove. Does look laid out for him.

The favourite Barbrook Star is a potential fly in the ointment under the champion jockey who takes over from Tom O’Brien who rode a promising debut chase at Chepstow. That novice status does bring with it question marks however about competency to jump at what is a testing track and 15/8 would be too short a price to tempt me to back whilst not really wanting to risk too much in taking him on.

He is a possible winner if he passes the jumping test and has able assistance so to do. His time at Chepstow reads well. I do take him on however in a dutched lay with Jarlath who I think has a mountain to climb to win at this distance after his LTO win here over shorter. O’Brien gets this mount but the mark is a prohibitive one for him on form giving weight to all the others over a distance he is patently unsuited to both on form and breeding. Out there to get his mark down now. Priced accordingly so wouldn’t want to over stake the risk factor in the event of falls etc but happy to take him on small with strong sense that he is an unlikely winner.

Both Gold Patrol and Quarenta have unquantifiable potential to win in the if finding improvement category. The latter is very interesting for his run LTO behind Barbrook Star but on balance, being a Jonjo, I am inclined to want to give him more time to improve and am thus clearly in the Muckle Roe back camp.

So that today is all about getting tactical staking right.

 

Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on BARBROOK STAR

0.4pt LAY on JARLATH

0.2pt BACK on MUCKLE ROE

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 10/12 = 83.33%

                                                         BACKS: 1/7 = 14.28%

 

**************************************************************************************************

 

STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

 

STAGGERED ACCA NUMBER 2:

(remember that stake of successful first leg bet is always returned directly to bank and that stake for leg two is simply the winnings from leg one.)

 

Joe Cullen available to lay at 80.0 this morning on Betfair so those that do like to play risk free and got the 100/1 I was recommending can hedge out now for a free bet over the Xmas period. I personally will be hanging on until after first game played – which I expect him to win –  with a view to hedging out with profit to use on the second leg of the staggered acca.

 

Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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