BOZmail 13th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

SUNDAY DECEMBER 13th  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 121/172 = 70.34%  Backs : 34/107 = 31.77%

2-10 CARLISLE

Going in to my bet of the year on the back foot again which is a great shame. Saturday was a poor day. Fallers besetting me once more and almost all the LIMs I rejected came good whilst the selected one didn’t. Only way is up!

This is a hot race at Carlisle and all seven can be considered possible winners. I’m on my second favourite horse of the moment however who has an on paper good chance, gets the 7lb weight advantage from his not untalented jockey/trainer and has been a minor revelation since the transition from Ireland. Obviously didn’t like it there! His good bumper win was in Wales and he is 5/5 on the UK mainland with his LTO in a handicap hurdle impressive beyond measure. I half expected him to go to Cheltenham from there but John remains patient and steps him up in trip here which is the only question mark for me. Not proven over this trip but I agree that his double St Leger breeding form (sire was the legendary Brian Boru and dam’s sire also won the St Leger!) does suggest he may well stay. The flat speed he gets from them is what makes him deadly. Long absence not a negative as he has won fresh twice before and ground also ideal. But for Saturday, I might have been staking a point or half a point but bank management does rear its head again in light of Saturday’s reverse. Captain Zebo can reputedly be a bit fragile and at the moment so are we!

He wins this however and he gets the deserved moniker of Captain Fantastic!

Recommendation:

0.15pt BACK on Captain Zebo (around 5.0)

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Parramount

Tamar Bridge

Wild Polly 

Straw Fan Jack 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Young Wolf 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive – Entered for Ayr (Dec 14)

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Boothill 

Lilly Pedlar

Getaway Luv

Across The Line

For Pleasure 

Shan Blue – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Shang Tang

Snow Leopardess 

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy) 

Ga Law – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16,17 & 18)

First Flow 

Get Your Own

Thyme Hill – Entered for Ascot (Dec 19) & Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Floressa – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16)

Cheddleton

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NH TO FOLLOW/TRADE HORSES for SATURDAY:

12-20 DONCASTER – DEFI SCARE @ 9/2 – 0.2pt BACK -3rd

Backed @ 6.0 : hedged @ 4.7 : P/L = 0

1-50 CHELTENHAM – AL DANCER @ 13/2 – 0.2pt BACK

Backed @ 8.6 : hedged @ 6.8 : P/L = 0

1-22 HEREFORD – PRETTYLITTLETHING @ 14/1 – 0.1pt BACK – Fell

Backed @ 65.0 : hedged 0.15pt @ 34.0 : P/L = +0.049 points

The more I looked, the more competitive the Doncaster race became (so I went for the 100% hedge with some for at the death which obviously never materialised) and I think the plan for Defi Sacre now will be the step up in trip. Seemed to lack confidence in his jumping too which is natural enough after LTO and I’ll give him a rest from the list for now until he has his mojo back. That Newbury race has I think set this season’s chance at improvement back a step.

No arguments with Prettylittlething whose prices were spectacular again and trade profit was easy enough. Not looking much of a win prospect however so also off the list for now.

Likewise Al Dancer who won’t win the King George running like that!

0.01pt WIN ACCA – LOST

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)

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LIM Scores for December:

1st:   +0.098   (+0.098) Lay @ 3.2

2nd:  +0.098 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.04 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   NO BET

4th:    -0.16    (+0.036) Lay @ 1.8

5th:    -0.308  (-0.272) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 8.0

6th:    +0.147 (-0.125) Lay @ 2.66

7th:    +0.147 (+0.022) Lay @ 2.24 : Back @ 8.0

8th:    -0.374   (-0.352) Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 9.0

9th:   +0.7056 (+0.3536) Back @ 7.0

10th:  +0.049  (+0.4026) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @ 9.4

11th:  +0.098  (+0.5006) Lay @ 4.5

12th:   -0.225   (+0.2756) Lay @ 2.5

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +52.8946points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 32.6464 points (+12.6464 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 50.1987 points (+42.1987 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.1985 points (-0.8015 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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