BOZmail – 13th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY AUGUST 13th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 55.451 points after month 8 (+35.451 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +4.7952 points

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LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

5-45 CARLISLE

Not soft enough for Fillydelphia to get involved. Ground drying out and the front two outclassed her but at least we got that right (just) and well done to those who got some of the 84.0 on FillyD on Betfair. That’s what we like to see. We’ll land one of them before too long again now. I can feel it in the water. No run this time but good practice at getting best price nevertheless. Pays to stay on the ball.

My LIM rejected acca would have gone down first leg in the first race. Couldn’t have picked that 20/1 shock winner. So good move also to spend more time before launching that! Would have been on the fav!

On to Tuesday and the careful grind to get the month back on the up. Beautiful weather in Cumbria now and if it stays so, The Boz will be up to Carlisle to paddock watch this one which looks suitably open with the ability to be against the two LTO winners going up in class – Fox Hill & Bedtime Bella. Ground going to be Carlisle heavy (not as bad as Haydock Heavy) but worth looking at fitness and knee actions on the way down. I’ll be looking at Blank Canvas who makes handicap debut so is not huge value but has a good weight swing with Bedtime Bella. If his knee bends,I’m interested in him as a back and want him on my side on paper.

Likely one of interest on paper and pre race value is Forever a Lady with jockey of the moment C Y Ho in the plate. Has a time I like in relation to the tissue fav Fox Hill isn’t likely to like the ground whereas Forever a Lady carried a small penalty in it well LTO. Definitely the value. Got a plus question mark by Supaulette too if it looks good in the paddock and might play the CSF if my three backs all shine in the prelims! 

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on FOX HILL ( around 3.8 : no greater than 4.3)

0.1pt BACK on FOREVER A LADY ( around 7.0 or bigger)

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This month plays so far:

1st:       +1.244(+1.244) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.8

2nd:      -0.5465(+0.6975) Lay @ 1.99 : Back @ 3.3

3rd:       -0.024 (+0.6735) Lays @2.08 & 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

4th:       +0.045(+0.7185) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 11.0

5th:       +0.196(+0.9145) Lay @ 2.08

6th:        -0.48 (+0.4345) Lay @ 3.4

7th:        +0.39 (+0.8245) Lay @ 1.69 : Back @ 11.0

8th:        -0.4425(+0.382)  Lay @ 1.55 : Backs @ 6.4 & 4.1

9th:        +0.245 (+0.627) Lay @ 2.2

10th:       -0.655 (-0.028)  Lay @ 1.71 : Back @ 5.6

11th:       +0.147(+0.119) Lay @ 4.4

12th:       +0.145(+0.264) Lay @ 1.73 : Back @ 55.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 144/214 = 67.28% :   BACKS: 42/146 = 28.76%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Qipco Cup at Ascot (Oct 19)

Sir Dragonet – Entered for Curragh (Aug 16) & York(Aug 21) 

Raise You 

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman 

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick 

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in the Hungerford,Newbury (Aug 17) & Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7)

Miss Celestial 

Deirdre – Entered for the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)

Piedita

James Watt

Lord of the Lodge – Entered in the Gimcrack at York (Aug 23)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.22 points.

Staggered acca number 17: (LEG 1)

Will shout when the final staggered acca first leg emerges. Have an alternative approach use of the bank lined up to start in the Autumn. Never afraid to admit defeat.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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