BOZmail 13th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THURSDAY AUGUST 13th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 22.1628 points (+2.1628 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 14.5927 points (+6.5927 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.705 points (-0.295 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.53 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +7.4615 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +11.7491 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 40/51 = 78.43%  Backs : 7/24 = 29.16%

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LESS IS MORE:

Won’t need to say much about Lady Bowes! The thunder storm came for her (we had a real doozy at Cartmel night before. Just like a WW2 blitz with lightning reaching 80 flashes a minute.And meteorological ack ack. Morecambe Bay was surreal) and Jimmy was there to support her. She mucked about hanging here and there. But less than usual. And don’t forget. I put her up as the winner of the Grand National in 2023 over a year ago now. Get yer ante-post on. That was the back to back LIM I’d been looking for. Just that weird scenario now of having to wait until Sunday before we go properly again. But I do think 2020 might finally be underway. 

Wednesday’s Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on KING FRANKEL (around 3.25 to be hedged as and when appropriate and preferential odds are offered. Preferably before the off)

Laid @ 3.75 : Hedged 0.06pt @ 5.9 : P/L = + 0.0392pts

What a strange race that was and I wouldn’t have picked the winner. Market was your guide as is the case with much on the flat now. My laying favs is getting better and down to you whether you trade from now on. I’m still doing so for a while more yet.

But a slight change for Thursday.

BATH 6-00

I bring the trade on Waseem Faris into LIM as he is my play of the day and no longer on the to follow. Start out by backing but not necessarily early as his price has been drifting considerably in races up to now. But like most flat racing at the minute, the market is your guide and if they do expect a win, you’ll see a move for him at some point. Milton Harris had two winners last week and his stable hit peak so good chance he’ll be going all out for this one. Senior jock up.

If you find he doesn’t drift in toward the off, you could wait to hedge in running as he has been finishing his races out well. I’d expect a bouncier start if he is up for this one. 

Or you could just back it and forget the trade if you’ve been following the past few days and want to play up your winnings. Your call. In normal years I would be doing that but the market is your main form pointer at the moment so on the flat especially, trading does make more sense. To me anyways. If you have time for it. I’m starting stake small so you can safely play either way.

Recommendation:

0.1pt BACK on WASEEM FARIS (around 9.0. Get the best price you can. Could well be considerably longer if you exercise patience and keep your eye on. Hedge when appropriate at preferential odds as they are offered if like me, you are sticking to trades on the flat for the time being)

LIM scores for August:

1st :  NO BET

2nd : +0.0886  (+0.0886) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   +0.0245  (+0.1131) Lay @ 3.75

4th:   +0.385    (+0.4981) Lays @ 3.75 & 3.3 :Backs @ 15.0 & 3.75

5th:   +0.0671 (+0.5652) Lay @ 2.38 & 14.0 : Backs @ 19.0 & 4.0

6th:    NON RUNNER

7th:    +0.049  (+0.6142) Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 7.0

8th:    -0.475 (+0.1392) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.4

9th:    NO BET

10th:  +0.441 (+0.5802) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 8.0

11th:  +0.686 (+1.2662) Back @ 6.6

12th:  +0.0392 (+1.3054) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 5.9 

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Ransom

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way 

Battleground – Entered for  Curragh (Aug 22&Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar – Entered at Chepstow(Aug 14)

Custard The Dragon

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Lord Condi 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo 

Pisgah Pike

El Presente

Hiconic

Young Wolf

Sirobbie

Little Jessture

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour

Samsons Reach

Leoncavallo – Entered at Pontefract (Aug 14)

Longhouse Sale

Oscar Rose

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  (+2.7744points)

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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