BOZmail – 13th APRIL

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

SATURDAY APRIL 13th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stands at 36.0395 points after month 4

LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

4-50 THIRSK

Change of tactics did indeed stop the rot although you did have to get on early at the parameters. I played second half of my stake outside the parameters. Important one for me psychologically to break the run against and I was confident hence the stake up. Don’t worry if it was a missed win for you. You will make it up and the psychological pressure less intense for you. You’ll see that when you get out there doing your own LIM programme in the future (once you’ve learned the ropes and assuming you haven’t already started!). Handling the psychological discipline is a biggie when you are doing the selecting as well as the getting the stake on at the right price. I put a lot of store in breaking that downturn after the National and likewise on the continuing recovery on Saturday. It continues that dodgy form time between start and end of codes and Saturday throws up just one LIM possible. Always harder but I think I’ve nailed it. We shall see.

You could argue Aeolus was the value in the race but I won’t be backing again and he looks to prefer six furlongs anyway so the winner for me comes from the top three in the betting – all of whom are back after long break.

It is tight between the three and betting could go any way between them but Muntadab is my chosen lay as having to overcome a turn round of 13lb with So Beloved at this distance and 4lb when they met LTO over the furlong further and on softer ground ( neither of which suited So Beloved). Both might in any case finish behind Vanbrugh who is harder to assess on French form on debut for the Hills yard – which is running 80% to form in past fortnight – on transfer from the Andre Fabre yard where he won twice in times that outstrip both the other two. He is tissue fav at 9/4 and may attract money to go shorter so it is probably time to get on early again. Not quite so confident as yesterday but a hard play again to eradicate minus and will not be afraid to go outside parameters to get stake on if needs be. Working from some bookmaker bolster as we are now.

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on MUNTADAB (around 3.5 : no greater than 4.0)

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This month plays so far:

1st: NON RUNNER  

2nd:   +0.355 (+0.355) LAY @ 1.9 : BACK @ 2.6

3rd:     -0.6 (- 0.245) LAY @  2.5 : BACK @ 10.0

4th:     +0.24 (- 0.005) LAY @  3.8

5th:     +0.044(+0.039) LAY @ 3.5 : BACK @ 3.5

6th:     +0.343(+0.382) LAY @ 2.2

7th:     +0.39 (+0.772) LAY @ 2.52 : BACK @ 12.0

8th:     – 0.52 (+0.252) LAYS @ 3.6 & 4.7 : BACK @ 9.2

9th:     – 0.26 (- 0.008) LAY @ 1.8 : BACK @ 8.0

10th:   – 0.276(- 0.284) LAY @ 1.88 : BACK @ 22.0

11th:   – 0.34 (- 0.624) LAY @ 2.2  : BACK @ 10.5

12th:   +0.343 (- 0.281) LAY @ 3.2

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 81/117 = 69.23% :   BACKS: 18/76 = 23.68%

NH HORSES OF INTEREST TO TRADE NEXT TIME OUT:

Southfield Vic – Entered for Wincanton Sunday

Tokaramore

Tiffin Top – Entered for Wincanton Sunday

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 8.75 points.

Staggered acca number 9: (LEG 1)

Will shout when the next weapons grade starter comes along.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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