BOZmail – 13th APRIL

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY APRIL 13th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 22.9362 points (temporarily suspended)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 10.4606 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.90 points

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BOZmail 2020 cycle current overall profit = +5.2968 points

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LESS IS MORE: (temporarily suspended)

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 23/36 = 63.88%  Backs: 9/26 = 34.61%

MONDAY play in Crisis Corner

7-15 WILL ROGERS DOWNS

OK, So the BOZ is feeling a load better and thanks again to all who have mailed in with good wishes. It helped and I’m back a few days earlier than the doctor recommended because this race has a form line we took part in on March 30th and can maybe benefit from again now.

Tiago’s Song was odds on fav that day and finished 3rd with Proud Mari a length in front in 2nd and Staunch Elaborator a length back in 4th. We won by laying the fav and backing the outsider which looks exactly the same way to play again. No reason to suspect Proud Mari will finish differently with weights and jockeys same. Distance the only slight variable over half a furlong less. That may help Tiago hang on this time as he starts fav again. He did lead and fail to stay home but I see nothing to suggest the odds should be the way they are. In general, those two look set to finish same order whilst our boy – the Obed Sanchez ridden Staunch Elaborator – has good reason to suggest he could sail past both at odds in double figures again. We got 20/1 last time and 15/1 on the tissue again here. Get the best price you can.

He crept out the stalls last time out and will need to not do that again because he made up ground and finished suggesting he could well have won had he not given five lengths at the start. He was also noticeable for hanging right in the stretch in the manner of a reluctant horse before being gotten hold of by Sanchez and coaxed to a gaining run again in the last half furlong. Still learning. Sanchez works hard on these sort and I scent a possible price winner at last here.

Recommendations:

£3 LAY on TIAGO’S SONG

£1 BACK on STAUNCH ELABORATOR

Get the best prices that you can.

I also reproduce the dog racing system from the BOZmails on 23rd and 24th of March with the news that I have carried on trialling every day since (with a three day break in deference to my doctor) using first UK dog racing, one day of Irish dog racing before it also ceased and the Australian Dog racing ever since. Two losing days in that time but 14 winning days and a healthy overall profit. It does continue to look a robust approach to me. How have you been doing? Anyone following the lead? Feel free to send me your scores. I’ll be very interested to hear. I had doubted that it would work in Australian dogs but it seems to hold there just as elsewhere if careful to stay out of top class races,handicaps and hurdles races and any races where the fav is not boxed next to a main market rival. I’m very encouraged so far. Couple more months of it before I am totally convinced but so far so good.

BOZ

The Boz’s April US  Racing LIM results: (£100 bank)

1st:  -£4-85  (-£4-85) Lay @ 2.54 : Back @ 44.0

2nd:  NO BET

3rd: +£0-96  (-£3-89) Lay @ 2.3 : Back @ 8.7

4th: – £2-20  (-£6-09) Lay @ 1.6 : Back @ 14.0

5th: +£0-48  (-£5-61) Lay @ 2.16 : Back @ 5.15

6th: -£2-88   (-£8-49) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 13.0

7th: +1-45    (-£7-04) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 12.0

8th:  +0.98   (-£6-06) Lay @ 2.3 : Back @ 25.0

9th-12th: NO PLAY DUE TO ILLNESS

13th:

Crisis Corner LIM Strike Rates: Lays 11/17 = 64.7% : Backs 0/9 = 0%

Good luck with your bets.

BOZ

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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The thing about dog racing is………….

(part one)

Six runners a race. Around a hundred BAGS races a day – even during a pandemic when social distancing isn’t exactly being practised by dog handlers when loading the boxes – you’d have thought it was an open invitation to LIM disciples to achieve in one day what the current BOZ led horse racing one race a day version takes 100 days to achieve. And if race reading BAGS races was as easy as race reading UK horse racing, it would be. UK horse race reading easy? I’ve had a few of you recently telling me that 50 years of watching UK horse racing hasn’t made race reading any easier for you. That would only be that you ain’t read your Braddock and then done 20 odd years practice like what I have. Fastest horse does win the race in general. There are other factors of course but in US racing – on similar same way round tracks – and UK dog racing with six runners every race – it had ought to be easier than UK horse racing. I hit on that about five years ago but five years down the line, attempts to emulate LIM scores in US horse and UK dog racing trials have largely ended in failure. Bozmailers who remember the January 2018 dog racing trials will testify.

A shambles one member called them. From a tipping point of view they were.

The reason being that both US horse races and UK dog races aren’t as easy to race read as they ought to be. I’m still working on why that is in US racing (lack of back data and back knowledge is my main theory there at the moment) but that doesn’t hold in UK dog racing. I’ve been into UK dog racing even longer than I’ve been into the horses. Grew up on horse racecourses courtesy of my Dad who was a bookie with no interest in dogs meaning I was grounded in horses during my formative years but I wasn’t that fussed about betting in those days. The click for that was 1981 when I went with some student pals to Hanley dog track in Stoke-on-Trent for a night on the tiles. I picked a 25/1 winner in a six dog race purely on the fact it boasted the fastest recorded time and have never lost my basic love of watching and betting the sport ever since.

But have I ever made any money at it? Short term many times. Three and six month spells have been common but with dog racing I will always come to that losing streak that I have largely eradicated in UK horse racing thanks to LIM. Why one and not the other has been driving me bonkers these past five years. The 2018 trial was a concerted effort to prove the LIM model worked in dog racing too and I poured a huge amount of time and effort into tipping one race every day. As I say, shambles. Loss not profit. Quickly abandoned whilst loss was small and no time to do the proper post mortem because I went straight back into making up for things by winning with LIM on the horses for those who had followed the dogs with me. One BOZmailer made me promise never to go down the dogs route again!

I stopped tipping them. Never stopped betting them and past two years? Well I haven’t been losing but I can’t say I’ve been winning either. Several excellent spells dogged by the destructive losing streak as ever. 

But I had an epiphany about three months ago and have been tentatively following ever since and then ran the 100 race a day trial Saturday 21st March 2020 courtesy of there being next to no horse racing to watch. The results were very good. And I’ve made it into a system now that looks set to work. Not a tipping system though. A betting system.  Reasons for that are similar to what makes US racing hard to tip in and for those of you new to LIM, what also takes a while to make LIM work excellently in UK horse racing.

The epiphany was that it’s not about race reading in UK dog racing. It is about market reading.I’d always assumed it was a bit of both as it is in UK LIM horse racing but I’ve finally accepted that you can pack attempts to race read up completely with the vast majority of BAGS greyhound racing in the UK. You are wasting your time. The fastest greyhound does win the race but unlike horse racing there is no pilot to ensure the clear passage and to guide the animal to sit in its best place throughout the race to ensure it gets its clear run at the right moment. Always known that and there are some dogs that develop, what they call in dog racing, ‘track craft’ i.e. the ability to do that sort of stuff without a pilot on board. Those would be the intelligent dogs and they all end up in the better quality dog races. The open races as called. The betting system I’ve developed doesn’t play in those dog races which take place mostly of an evening.

We play in the graded races in mornings and afternoons with the also rans because that is where the market favours us. Especially the exchange market. Betfair prices on dogs can be astronomically inflated. Let me run Sunday’s key race past you. It was the 11-46 at Doncaster where the betting market formed as per usual – in the twenty minutes before the race bearing little or no relation to the tissue (another reason why my 2018 tipping trial was a shambles):

Trap 1 :  19.0

Trap 2 :  21.0

Trap 3 :  13.0

Trap 4 :    2.4

Trap 5 :    4.2

Trap 6 :    5.8

I didn’t bother with a race read until afterwards. I only did it then because I was planning writing this and wanted to see if I would have given the winner any chance.

I wouldn’t have done.  It had won 5 of its starts at a 10% strike rate but times made it clear it was outclassed by the 4 and the 5 dog. The market was formed thus. 

So how did the Boz play? You can probably guess. 

(I’ll leave you dangling with your guess there and publish part two tomorrow)

(part two)

Same as LIM small field horse races, I seek to lay the vulnerable fav and part of the epiphany has been the realisation that what makes a BAGS graded dog race fav vulnerable to defeat is nothing to do with its form. It is simply whether or not it is trapping out of a box next door to the main market/form rival in the race. The reason this matters is because many BAGS graded races are decided in the trapping and the run to the first bend. The dog who gets round the first bend best and unscathed without being checked or impeded is the dog who dictates the race from thereon. Doesn’t always go on to win but over 50% of the time does. If that dog ain’t the fav that’s half the LIM job done.

The reason being boxed next to your main rival matters is just that. You are destined for a scrap at the first bend which you might win but 50% of the time you won’t and when you add that to the 50% of leaders that don’t go on to win, you have favs that only win 25% of the time. In graded races where all dogs have a chance (that’s what graded races means – all dogs in together who are of similar ability). So a dog has a 5/1 chance of winning  on pure odds in a six dog graded race. Form has pointed it to having the time edge making it fav at much less than 5/1 (2.4 for Unknown Doll in Trap 4 above) but if boxed next to its market rival and thus the second best dog in the race it only has a 50% chance of getting round the first bend in front (making it a 10/1 chance on pure odds) and then can on occasion fail to turn its lead into victory (getting heels clipped or running wide at final bend or simply not being as far clear of its rivals as the market expected – just three of several reasons why graded races can still be lost by race leaders) making it a 20/1 chance(this is not a mathematical assertion I hasten to add just The Boz practising his blarney) . The same as the 2 dog in the above example. He started at 20/1 on the exchanges. Did he win? No, the race was won by Lutton Meghan – a 19.0 chance on the exchanges and returned at an ISP of 10/1.

Time of race win last time it won was 29.61. Trap 4 was clocking regular 29.1 or 29.2.

This race was run in 29.51. Trap 1 led pretty much all the way. 6 and 4 got out the boxes but having to jostle past the 5 meant they reached first bend behind trap 1 and weren’t good enough to claw back in a slowly run race. Trap 5 was the dog finishing at the end and registered runner up (Trap 4 was third). 5 had trapped slowly but the jostle with 4 & 6 kept him back early. Trap 6 blew his chance running wide final bend as trap 6s often do. Trap 4? Didn’t do anything visibly wrong. But something took speed from his legs so that he never accelerated and was wilting to the line and got pipped for second by the 5. That jostle out of the boxes from main market rival affected him. My stats on favs who don’t win when boxed next to main market rival suggest it.

How did the Boz bet the race? LIM principles only even more as the bookmaker than when I tip on the sheet. That’s why it’s a betting system not a tipping system (that and the market only forming in the 20 minutes before the race which you play without a race read). £2 back on traps 1,2,3 & 6 as the value in the race (no idea which of them might win). £9 lay on the fav and thus a £1 profit on the unbet Trap 5 as LIM cover. £20-60 liability on the trap 4 (on a 20/1 shot according to my weird logic above) and £38.22 winnings after commission on the result.

I played like that in over 60 races on Saturday 21st (sat out of around 40 where the fav was not boxed next to market rival(s)) with only 8 losing races where the fav won (and of course the fav does win some of the time) but turned a £300 bank into over £500 by the end of the day and similar again on Sunday.

I think it is a way to go. Watch it for a bit and see what you think. The fav in a box next to a market rival is the crux. Leave alone all races where that is not the case. And watch graded races only. Forget open races where the market is very accurate nearly 90% of the time. Also forget handicaps and hurdles races. Always back the value and pay for it with a lay on the vulnerable fav using second fav as LIM cover in general.

And let me know what you think. If I’ve discovered a system that requires no race reading, I think maybe I’ve done myself out of a job! It has to be better than the slog I’m having with US racing again! 

BOZ

P.S. Will be trialling now everyday that there is no horse racing to watch. Am working from the same bank and setting myself a target £40+ profit each day. Will be stopping when achieved and I’m still very much invoking less is more in that and resisting the temptation to simply sit playing it all day. Important that I always feel. Took me nine races on Monday to achieve target and the schedule detailed below from my Betfair account. You see I started with a chunky loser and that can of course happen. Nerve has to be held then and system stuck to. Fortunately corrected it quickly here. Played just under an hour and missed out seven of the races playable during that spell. Looking always for a fav that was boxed up against a market rival and missing the play out if that element not in evidence. 

 
 



Greyhound RacingShowing 1 – 9 of 9 markets
MarketStart timeSettled dateProfit/loss (£)
Greyhound Racing / CPark 23rd Mar:A6 480m23-Mar-20 12:0123-Mar-20 12:03 18.23
Greyhound Racing / PBarr 23rd Mar : D5 275m23-Mar-20 11:4823-Mar-20 11:55 -9.76
Greyhound Racing / CPark 23rd Mar:D3 265m23-Mar-20 11:4623-Mar-20 11:48 20.38
Greyhound Racing / Henl 23rd Mar : A10 460m23-Mar-20 11:3923-Mar-20 11:42 1.96
Greyhound Racing / CPark 23rd Mar : A5 480m23-Mar-20 11:3123-Mar-20 11:37 0.98
Greyhound Racing / PBarr 23rd Mar : D3 275m23-Mar-20 11:1923-Mar-20 11:27 3.92
Greyhound Racing / Henl 23rd Mar : A9 460m23-Mar-20 11:2423-Mar-20 11:25 33.38
Greyhound Racing / Swin 23rd Mar : A9 476m23-Mar-20 11:1123-Mar-20 11:19 -27.00
Greyhound Racing / CPark 23rd Mar : D2 265m23-Mar-20 11:1623-Mar-20 11:18 0.98

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