BOZmail – 12th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 12th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.0715 points after month 9 (+37.0715 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +11.8667 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +56.5195 points

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LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

8-20 CHELMSFORD

This might have made a staggered acca starter were the trial phase not still been ongoing for the way forward on the acca. Pretty sweet on Sauchiehall Street who is the shortlist system nap of the day at Chelmsford with Tony Martin’s Moonmeister coming over from Ireland to make the market for the Noel Williams charge who ticks all my selection boxes and holds Moonmeister on comparable times. Conkering Hero is actually my idea of value in the race and a serious danger to the topweight and the pair of them score well on current stable form whereas Moonmeister does not but does have the jockey booking to keep him at the head of the market. All in all, an LIM race without question and were I not in my losing streak, I’d be pretty bullish about this. On the question of losing streaks, I have dug out my old Learning to Lose article which I like to re-read and update at times like these. Reproduced below for the benefit of new subscribers and those who have not read it before. A key aspect ofthe annual claw toward profit.

I do believe I nearly tipped a winner on Wednesday! One of these days. Tip would have been Beni Light if his price had been 20/1 as I was hoping. Was some 7/1 but the market knew again and smashed him in. Started pretty much joint fav. An encouraging race read nevertheless (a nice £61Trifecta for those that played it) and with the shortlist system naps to help, here’s hoping the corner is now turned for September! Apologies by the way for getting my Kenny Sansoms and my Samson and Delilahs mixed up in the copy yesterday! Yet another sample of the dementia that lurks in my not too distant future!

STOP PRESS: Just heard that Moonmeister is a non-runner for tomorrow so a slight change to staking. No lay for the day now and a small rev forecast added on the two fancied.

Recommendations:

0.15pt BACK on SAUCHIEHALL STREET

0.1pt BACK on CONKERING HERO   

0.05pt REVERSED FORECAST  

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This month plays so far:

1st:    -0.24 (-0.24)  Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 34.0  

2nd:   -0.25 (-0.49)  Back @ 2.2

3rd:    NO PLAY DAY 

4th:    +0.49 (+0.0) Lay @ 1.9  

5th:    -0.44 (-0.44) Lay @ 1.88    

6th:    -0.19 (-0.63) Lay @ 1.38

7th:    -0.542(-1.172) Lay @ 2.12 : Back @ 9.0

8th:     -0.6 (-1.772) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 12.0

9th:     +0.34(-1.432) Lay @ 1.75 : Backs @ 11.0 & 18.0

10th:   -0.483(-1.915) Lay @ 2.38

11th:   +0.095(-1.82) Lay @ 3.6 : Back @ 4.4

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 156/238 = 65.54% :   BACKS: 44/161 = 27.32%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points. Transferred now to starting bank for SHORTLIST SYSTEM PERMED ACCA BET which will start sometime this month.Still watch only for the time being but some encouragement again at Uttoxeter on Wednesday. Nap selections of the day will be featured in bold. Four out of four this week now. Archimento,Sizing Tara, Sunset Showdown and Champagne Mist. That would have made a good staggered acca! Looks likely to be the way to take it forward in the absence of the Betfair permed acca template. 

THE BOZMAIL 2019 PERMED ACCA from the Shortlist System for 12/9/19 at Chelmsford:

5-20* Last Surprise

5-50* Mitty’s Smile – Silver Samurai

6-20 Lovin – Across The Sea

6-50 Commander Cole – Akvavera

7-20 Royal Birth – Encore D’Or – Sunsprite

7-50 Brasca – Withoutdestination

8-20 Sauchiehall Street – Conkering Hero – Sir Gnet

THE BOZMAIL 2019 PERMED ACCA from the Shortlist System for 11/9/19 at Uttoxeter:

2-05 Mead Vale(BD) – His Dream(PU) – Realta Dawn (U)

2-40* Mason Jar (2nd) – Champagne Mist (1st)

3-15* Go Another One (2nd)

3-45 Zubayr(NR) – He’s a Goer(U) – Doubly Clever (2nd)

4-20 Midnight Maestro (2nd) – Elkstone (3rd) – Still Believing (U)

4-55 Embole – Joy’s Gift – Tingo in the Tale

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Miss Celestial – Entered at Doncaster (Sep 13) & Curragh (Sep 28)

Deirdre – Entered at Leopardstown (Sep 14)&Longchamp (Oct 6) &Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

James Watt – Entered for Ayr Gold Cup (Sep 21)

Lord of the Lodge 

Mum’s Tipple – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 14) & Newbury (Sep 21)

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

LEARNING HOW TO LOSE (written in February 2016)

The first and perhaps the most important lesson in starting to take your gambling seriously. 

Gambleaware currently promotes the catchphrase: 

WHEN THE FUN STOPS. STOP. 

Am I being cynical in thinking a bookmaker thought that up? They know full well that their best customers – the losers – are the ones having fun with betting. Not taking it seriously. By implication, the above catchphrase says when you start taking it seriously, stop betting.Or perhaps they are saying when you start taking it seriously, we'll stop your account! When did they ever stop the account of someone who was just in it for fun? 

The Boz rewrites the gambleaware catchphrase: 

WHEN THE FUN STARTS. STOP. 

You should only be allowed to bet if you are going to take it seriously and at the very least try your damnedest to show an overall profit. If you want some mindless fun,can I suggest you take up golf?! 

I write of course as a gambler with an addictive personality (that's 50% of us if national stats are to be believed. I also play chess obsessively and watch endless re-runs of my favourite sitcoms). For years I chain smoked and when I cured myself of that for health reasons, I knew I could also cure addictive gambling tendencies. I did that by stopping gambling for fun. I started taking it seriously. Writing and tipping and doing it for a living. Might sound like a strange way to cure gambling addiction and it was a while ago now but it worked. I'm no less obsessed now than I ever was (more so my wife would say) but now I show an annual profit. Without fail. The year I don't is the year I retire. 

Learning how to lose is the big one. I had to learn it as a chess player too and if you already got it licked, you can skip the next couple of pages and go straight back to tomorrow’s LIM!   

And not just learning how to lose but how to handle the losing streak. Are you good with those? I've met them of course. The guys who say losing streaks don't happen to them. My Dad used to seek those guys out and lay their bets hard! 

You're too good at it? Too savvy? You follow Nick Hardman's tips? Well, yeh I'll allow you that one although even Nick Hardman has losing streaks. They happen to everyone. Serious and fun gamblers alike. It ain't pleasant and it must be managed. And cured like you cure an illness. Dealt with like you have to deal with a nasty letter from the bank. With intelligence, coolness and perseverance. Quick fixes are not impossible but they are dangerous to seek out and more often than not, they make things worse. There is only one real way out of the losing streak and that is to heed the advice of Corporal Jones and ‘Don't Panic'. Stick to your principles. Bide your time. Work your way out. You know you can rely on your methods. You simply have to give them time. 

I'm just out of a 21 day losing streak with the Less is More system I trialled before Xmas. That's 21 days and 21 backs that didn't win. You'll remember that the bet is designed to give you 2 chances of success (or rather one and half a one!) and so I was still managing to lay over 50% of my dodgy favs successfully but I couldn't find a winner for love nor money. And that's from races with not many runners don't forget. How frustrating that gets when you already know for 100% certain in your own mind that the method works. And it's that frustration I always have to battle. No co-incidence that I regularly play a bet that gives me half a winner even when I fail to back the first past the post. The frustration lessened by the knowledge that at least I got half the race read right!You'll see that fact on my top tips list below and it's the one that applies most to me. I can handle any amount of losing so long as something is also going right!  

Less is More works but it doesn't win all the time. Ergo, by the universal law of averages, it will go through some long periods of non-stop winning and some periods of non-stop losing and everything in between before emerging with a rock solid guaranteed annual profit. Do I know that or just believe it? Well, all the research evidence and actual practice of the past several years shows it so it is evidential knowledge but like all these things, the only proof is in the doing it so you could argue that it is a belief. Either way, it still only works if you don't panic when it starts to go awry. 

The Boz's top ten tips for keeping the ship steady during such times: 

  1. Stick to your tried and tested methods. It is human nature to want to ditch them when they start malfunctioning. Fix them by all means but never ditch them. You must maintain belief whether it is the method you yourself have devised or one devised by someone you know that you can trust 
  2. Avoid seeking the quick fix. This includes increasing stakes,backing unlikely longshots etc. The temptation to blast your way out of trouble grows the longer the streak goes on but if the quick fix has ever worked for you, you've been lucky that time and next time chances are it will ruin you. Slow and steady. Trust your method. Be patient. 
  3. Take a day off.  Most of these work on the winning streak too especially this one. Never be afraid to take a break. The intensity reduction factor can work wonders in helping regain the clarity of vision you may have lost.  
  4. Look to colleagues for help. In my case this time it was a particular horse that I know personally. He talked me through the race that broke my losing streak. His name is Morning Royalty and he lives next door and I kid you not. 
  5. Talk the problem out. Don't bottle it up. This is linked to 4 of course but some I know don't have colleagues and work very much alone. I encouraged one such to talk to herself and play the role of the colleague giving advice. She actually used her cat to focus the conversation and played the role of a listening and advising cat to herself. Whatever works for you! 
  6. Keep your discipline. Obvious and hackneyed in gambling advice columns but critical and can never be repeated enough. 
  7. Keep your chin up. Another obvious one but equally critical. And linked to number 8 for me personally. 
  8. Build in to your daily practice strategies to stop the losing streak from starting. This might sound obvious too but in a big way, that is what the Less is More approach is for me and what I was alluding to before. 21 days of losers is depressing but I was still having minor successes in some of the same races by getting the fav beat and showing a small profit whilst picking another loser. This might sound trivial but the comfort to ego and confidence this gives cannot be underestimated. Any small plus  helps dilute the accumulative negative that is daily building as a big black depressing cloud. Just that feeling that I got something right helps me to adhere to the other points above and is very much a daily strategy for me to ensure the serious losing streak never even starts. 
  9. Be born in the Black Country! It is a regional trait that losing and coming last is built into the DNA of those from my part of the world. It starts at school and with our football teams and we learn to cope by laughing at adversity. Try it. Laugh every time you have a loser. It takes some doing but I assure you it works! 
  10. Remember always that losses make the winners sweeter
  11. Yep, there is a bonus number 11 and that is stolen from the Murphys Law tea towel I just bought for my youngest son’s 21st birthday present. It says: If everything seems to be going well, you obviously don’t know what the hell is going on! In betting, as in life, Murphys Law lurks round every corner ready to ensnare us or make us laugh!

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