BOZmail 12th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet & 

THE BOZmail at the Socially distanced US Open!

SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 12th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +15.7986 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 24.9978 points (+4.9978 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 19.7863 points (+11.7863 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 5.1635 points (+0.1635 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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US OPEN FINAL thoughts:

Serena has showed her bottle a fair bit in this tourney and never more so than turning round the match against Pironkova who was imperious first set and gave us a good hedging chance at 14.0 whilst still leaving her as a big winner should she go on and prevail. At 1-0 second set, it did look on but Serena took over from there. Pironkova’s class dipped a tad but mainly it was Serena finding her consistency and cutting out the mistakes. I hadn’t wanted to oppose her in this one and the way she’s played, I’m fairly chuffed to have +0.6pt on her plus on all five of the remaining players. Very inclined to leave it at that now with no strong idea of likely outright winner. Probably Serena or Osaka. Both seem at the top of their game but I guess neither a cert.

Writing this of course before Azarenka v Mertens and before the semis…..

And Azarenka not only completely blitzed Mertens but she recovered a set down v Serena in the semi and set up her final with Osaka. Wouldn’t have predicted that! But Azarenka is of course a past slam champ herself and very much on a mission and playing the tennis of her life. As was Brady in her semi. Both matches were big gun matches so my outsider approach wasn’t going to achieve the whammy win this time.

You see however, because of how I play, it doesn’t lose either. A small contribution to the annual profits. Four times a year in a normal year with the whammy win happening reasonably frequently too. Way to go.

And we’ve got the French Open starting in a fortnight too. Another crack at the possible whammy win. Meanwhile who wins the US Open final? I often don’t get involved in the latter stages of a slam. Especially if the winnings are already in the bank. Never get greedy. Watch it as sport instead. Just as interesting. But usually much tougher to call! I was expecting a Serena v Osaka final from the semis. Azerenka has been a surprise and surprises do tend to continue so I make her marginal fav for the final (against the book). But its not a strong call. As near to 50-50 as you can get really. A sporting event to watch and enjoy rather than bet on.     BOZ 

OUTRIGHT PORTFOLIO:

 NAOMI OSAKA   (+0.60)

SHELBY ROGERS  -eliminated

TSVETANA PIRONKOVA  -0.15pt hedge @ 14.0 – eliminated

YULIA PUTINTSEVA – eliminated

SERENA WILLIAMS – eliminated

VICTORIA AZARENKA (+0.60)

JENNIFER BRADY  -eliminated

ELISE MERTENS – eliminated

US OPEN PORTFOLIO: +0.588 points

US OPEN TRADES: +0.3213 points

US OPEN ACCAS: +0.6075 points

US OPEN TOURNAMENT FINAL SCORE : +1.5168 points

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 76/107 = 71.02%  Backs : 19/63 = 30.15%

3-25 FONTWELL

This is a proper horse race and a proper LIM race too so we have a go today! Might be only one in a while again as NH racing remains sporadic throughout September. Much more in line with normal rhythms in many ways as the jumps goes through its transition from summer jumps to proper winter jumps. Form often gets affected during this time making the game harder which is why I opt to omit September in a normal year (usually so I can have my holiday break!). But there will still be odd days in September when things are worthwhile for LIM purpose and this looks one of those days. This, on paper, is a very good race. Let’s see if we still think so after we’ve bet on it!!

The flat racing also usually goes through seasonal transition in September but I shan’t pretend to know what’s going on in flat racing at the moment and am still in general swerving it. The Phoenix ownership scandal is cause for concern amongst other things. I do however still have my specialist flat tracks for a normal year and Bath is one of those and runs on Sunday and Monday this week so I’ll peruse cards with a view to possibly playing them in the next two days. Watch this space!

Meanwhile back to Fontwell and this Class 2 Handicap Chase in which the early tissue favourite is a Novice making his Handicap Chase debut and thus would be one I’d be interested in taking on. Gary Moore’s Beat The Judge beat our to follow horse Ashutor LTO at level weights and is presumably fav here because he gets weight this time with Ashutor having gone on to win twice in the meantime – the most recent over course and distance here. Despite the weight difference I’m with Ashutor again here as I attribute the defeat last time they met to the STD jockey factor. Poor jump at the last as the horse wasn’t put right. Harry in the plate this time so we can expect a more classy ride.

Not that the race is just about these two. The shortlist is keen on the tricast in the race and leaves Beat The Judge out and prefers Sizing Platinum and King Alfonso from the top and bottom of the weights to serve up the challenge to Ashutor. I concur with this. King Alfonso might prefer softer ground but posted a very quick time LTO in soft ground at Cartmel and gets a stone and a half off Sizing Platinum which I’d say gives him a fantastic chance despite the Tizzard horse being the proven class in the race. SP does have an extended lay off to overcome and may need the race at the death.

Three other decent sorts in McGroarty,Ballywood and Chesterfield make it a very open affair really so one where the main bet is taking on BeatThe Judge. But I do think I’m quite keen on keeping up the to follow on Ashutor and will be playing him from the to follow bank (see below). I do also fancy a very small play on the straight tricast also which I’ll include here and stake from my occasional acca bank.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on BEAT THE JUDGE (around 3.0. Get the best price that you can) 

0.001pt STRAIGHT TRICAST – 1st ASHUTOR – 2nd KING ALFONSO – 3rd SIZING PLATINUM (to be staked from the occasional acca bank)

LIM SCORES FOR SEPTEMBER:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.55

2nd: NO BET

3rd:  -0.345  (-0.149) Lay @ 3.3

4th: NO BET

5th: NO BET

6th:  +0.1764 (+0.0274) Lay @ 1.84

7th: NO BET

8th:  -0.1       (-0.0726) Back @ 12.0

9th:  +0.3234 (+0.2508) Back @ 3.2

10th: NO BET

11th: NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Leopardstown (Sep 12) &  Curragh (Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon 

TO FOLLOW HORSE at HAYDOCK Thursday:

4-40 Custard The Dragon @ 11/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Take the best price that you can get and hedge as appropriate and when preferential odds are offered.

Wasn’t available to play in this and so it is left alone on the sheet. I saw the result however and have watched the race since. Old Custard ran a cracker again and if you did play and want to notify me of your score, I’ll include in the stats. He didn’t win again but ran a tremendous value race in relation to his market price and stays on the list for now because the win does still look like it’s in the pipeline. 

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo 

Pisgah Pike 

Hiconic

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie 

Little Jessture 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Samsons Reach 

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10)

Longhouse Sale 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius

Calum Gilhooly

The Butcher Said

NH TO FOLLOW HORSE on SATURDAY at FONTWELL:

3-25 ASHUTOR – 0.1pt BACK @ 5/2 

No trade on this one. Straight back to win. You might get bigger price than 5/2 if you shop around. Get the best price that you can.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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