BOZmail – 12th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY OCTOBER 12th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.666 points after month 9 (+37.666 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +13.2887 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +58.536 points

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LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY 

3-55 CHEPSTOW

Friday was an LIM perfection race with Lisnagar Oscar never jumping that great so any back I would have had would have lost (staggered acca was considered) whereas my cover horse was held on the flat but this is jump racing and Ardlethen pinged him at the last and managed to hold on. The lay was well trounced and let’s hope I’m on a run with them now because this is the time of year as jump racing starts getting classy. You will need to keep getting the lays on early as I’m targeting the tissue errors and although I’m good at it, I’m not the only one and they are getting corrected if you leave your lay too late.

Might apply on this rather tasty Novice Chase on Saturday as well. Reserve Tank is the pick on form and times and ground (owners and stable had a good winner Friday too) although it’s a smart race and Jarvey’s Plate is not out of it if the ground doesn’t worsen but the forecast is for more consistent showery rain. I also am a big fan of Nicholls’ Posh Trish who may be a non-runner being entered for Newton Abbot on Sunday (shortlist publishing day). Young potential so I’ll want him as cover in this and am thus laying Secret Investor to pay for bets. Another smart horse but got to give weight all round here and least likely to prefer the ground. The way Torpillo won it was soft and getting softer! Secret Investor also wasn’t without his jumping mistakes last year so despite the other three being chase debutantes, I won’t be surprised if he jumps least well of all. Just waiting for prices before I determine staking levels.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on SECRET INVESTOR (around 3.2 : No greater than 3.6)

0.2pt BACK on RESERVE TANK

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 172/262 = 65.64% :   BACKS: 49/175 = 28.0%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    -0.838 (-0.838) Lay @ 2.68 : Back @ 3.3

2nd:   -0.216 (-1.054) Lay @ 2.08

3rd:    +0.245(-0.809) Lay @ 1.66

4th:    +0.144(-0.665) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

5th:    +0.294 (-0.371) Lay @2.62

6th:    +0.145 (-0.226) Lay @ 4.09 : Back @ 5.0

7th:    -0.408 (-0.634) Lay @ 1.88 : Back @ 13.0

8th:    +0.558(-0.076) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 2.76

9th:    +0.196(+0.12) Lay @ 3.75

10th:  +0.49 (+0.61) Lay @ 1.76

11th:  +0.343(+0.953) Lay @ 3.0

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.41 points. 

Will shout as soon as third leg emerges.

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

La Bague au Roi

Unwin VC

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Raya Time

Tea Clipper

Nube Negra

Ballymoy

Verdana Blue

Maire Banrigh

Wenceslaus

Tokaramore 

Flic Ou Voyou

Thyme Hill

The Hobbs horse gets on the list for his win on hurdles debut in the Persian War. Attritional ground and showed excellent attitude under the redoubtable champ. Beat several good ones in so doing and what’s more, he did a dump at the start! Gets on two lists because of that. Sure to be aimed high from here in.

Having a watch and see on Tokaramore Saturday. Wouldn’t want heavy ground.

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WINTER ALL WEATHER HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

The Grey Goat

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Deirdre – Entered at Ascot(Oct 19)

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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