BOZmail 12th NOVEMBER

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Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

THURSDAY NOVEMBER 12th  2020

Reacting to a bit of feedback that said my P/L scores are not that relevant and would I mind shifting them to the bottom of the sheet to save having to scroll through to get at the required info each day, I have taken the point and agree with the sentiment (the only P/L scores that matter are the ones you post) so have shifted them southwards! If you have any comments on that, feel free to mail them in. If they are of no interest to readers, they will perhaps disappear all together in the near future. Streamlining the service very much on my mind at the moment.  BOZ

LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 106/145 = 73.10%  Backs : 29/92 = 31.52%

1-57 SEDGEFIELD

From two runners on Tuesday to three runners on Thursday and enough in Jack Devine and Prime Venture getting weight and with good stable/jockey connections to take on Monbeg Theatre under penalty for his LTO win. That was a decent effort  by the Snowden inmate but more to do here and without the jockey claim benefitted from LTO. Not value at odds on to my eyes. Pushed to pick a winner, I plump for the form of the Rose Dobbin stable and the second time after a wind op Jack Devine back over fences after a recent spin over hurdles and on a reduced mark from the handicapper.

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on MONBEG THEATRE (around 1.96)

0.1pt BACK on JACK DEVINE (around 4.0)

Those who were with the BOZmail on the BLWM service last year may remember my largely unsuccessful efforts to get the staggered acca bet motoring. Basically that’s a bet that relies on a winning streak and seeks to invest the winnings from Leg one on future legs of the acca whilst banking the original stake from leg one if and when it is successful so that the bet doesn’t show a loss if it goes down at a later stage in the sequence. All cumulative winnings after leg one are used as a stake for the following leg of the sequence. I have never used it much as part of LIM but with identifying favs to lay being my main strength, several of you have hinted that I should attempt it here. With two winning sequences notched in recent weeks. One thirteen legs long and the current one standing at nine (before Wednesday’s result), it has got me thinking and getting the calculator out, I compute that a £100 starting stake for the current eight leg winning sequence in November led to £1397-93 profit prior to yesterday. That of course against a £178-11 return playing the way I have advised on here. That’s £178-11 more than we would have returned had any of those eight legs gone down of course! As they didn’t, well, like I say, it has got me thinking. This time of year is a good time of year for winning LIM sequences and with the current state of the sheet, I am contemplating giving it a go in the days ahead. Your thoughts welcomed. You don’t have to follow it of course. You can just stick to the standard LIM format as you prefer. 

The slight staying of my hand as ever is Murphys Law. Sort of thing that happens when I propose changes to a system that isn’t broken! Has taken me nearly six months to get LIM purring again.Perhaps asking for trouble to start changing things but I am on the case and a prior notice you have just received. There is a version where we use a small increment of the daily advised stake for the acca purpose. That might be the version I give birth to in 2020!

And there goes Murphys Law with Robbie Power having heard my comments yesterday showing his better side on Fiddlerontheroof and rode a serious strong finish to end my winning sequence having gone on about it above! I ought to know better!

You know what’s coming next though. Settled as a loser on the sheet but looked beat at the last and traded as high as 7.8 in running. I got my hedge at 3.85 when I saw something was wrong with Sporting John. Found nothing. Be a great shame if he has lost his way as the run at the Cheltenham Festival suggested maybe the case. He traded at 1.36 in running which shows you how these markets work and why you trade them if you’re wise. 

That said, the Staggered acca approach would have had £1397-93 running on getting Fiddlerontheroof beat. Of course we could have traded that out too. Well done if you did. Makes you a trader. Hard cheese if you didn’t. Gambler for you!  

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Wild Polly

Straw Fan Jack 

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike – Entered @ Cheltenham (Nov 15)

Young Wolf

Sirobbie    

Soldier of Love (3m 2f)

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive 

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Mrs Hyde 

Return Ticket(flat track)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething – Entered @ Newcastle (Nov 13)

Boothill

Al Dancer – Entered@ Cheltenham (Nov 14) & King George (Dec 26)

Onemorefortheroad – Entered@ Taunton (Nov 12)

Eldorado Allen

For Pleasure

Fidelio Vallis (softish ground)

Ucanaver

Ribble Valley

Shan Blue

Snow Leopardess

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy)

Summerville Boy

Ga Law

Hitman

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on WEDNESDAY:

12-35 AYR – She’s A Rocca @ 11/2 – 0.25pt BACK – UNPLACED

Backed @ 10.5 : Hedged @ 9.0 : P/L = 0

Got a good price with some 13.0 in it but never any stable money so I came out before the off at 8/1 leaving me a smidgeon to play with if she got involved in the finish but although moving nicely up into fourth, still jumping stickily and then fell away suggesting possible didn’t stay. Disappointing. Tempted to drop her off the list for that but will have a think and maybe see how formline does before deciding. Stable obviously weren’t expecting anything.

1-20 BANGOR – Stormy Ireland @ 8/13 -2nd

Never a bet and jumped very novicey and found one to beat it again so also goes off the list until having learned to jump! Casts a slight cloud over the form of Eldorado Allen also now under query on the list.

1 x 0.05pt WIN DOUBLE – LOST

NH HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on THURSDAY:

1-30 Taunton – OneMorefortheroad – @ 5/1 – 0.25pt BACK

Get the best price you can and hedge as appropriate and/or when preferential odds are on offer.

An each way chance on my race read and that dependent on decent jumping first time out. Diocletian looks a good recruit from the flat and should prevail if taking to jumping but as you know, that’s always an if. I was very impressed with this Neil King inmate LTO and Newton Abbot bumper winners have been fruitful ground for the to follow list over the years so very much a horse of interest and should get good jump handling from Ms Frost so could easily go on and win if others trip up. Don’t fancy the Nicholls and Skelton horses much. So same strategy as of recent days. Definitely a trade because of the hurdles debut but aim for a highish back price and if you get it, hedge to give yourself a chance at the in running finish strategy because won’t be a total surprise to me to see Bryony getting involved in that. 

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

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LIM Scores for November:

1st: +0.049 (+0.049) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 8.8

2nd: NO BET

3rd: +0.1543 (+0.2033) Back @ 2.05

4th:  NO BET

5th:  +0.098   (+0.3013) Lay @ 1.98 : Backs @ 9.0 & 51.0

6th:  +0.4312 (+0.7325) Lay @ 3.4 : Backs @ 6.8 & 13.5

7th:  +0.196   (+0.9285) Lays @ 4.0 & 3.35

8th:  +0.098   (+1.0265) Lay @2.1 : Back @ 8.4

9th:  +0.4606 (+1.4871) Lay @ 3.7 : Back @ 4.2

10th: +0.294 (+1.7811) Lay @ 2.04

11th: – 0.364  (+1.4171) Lay @ 2.04

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +44.7932 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 29.3199 points (+9.3199 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 45.2238 points (+37.2238 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.3985 points (-0.6015 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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