BOZmail – 12th MAY – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

SUNDAY MAY 12th 2019


Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stands at 40.8925 points after month 5



Weather and going yer main factor to study at the moment as we saw with Barsanti yesterday as he couldn’t even manage second. So get to Plumpton early and see whether or not the rain landed there like it did at nearby Lingfield on Saturday. If the ground changes from the currently forecast quick ground, it greatly helps the chance of getting the fav beat in this. I shall watch the early races and any sign of a quagmire and I’ll be doubling stake!

Goodthyneaway couldn’t carry its penalty to victory LTO and tries back at his trip here but both wins were at dodgy Southwell so he’s no odds on shot for me despite the paucity of the opposition. My times chart shows him gettable despite each having enough of a negative about them to stop me suggesting a back in the race. Just going to rely on one of the three doing his best and exposing the Goodthyneaway vulnerability. Hit the Highway gets a good weight allowance and ran a decent time LTO in lesser grade. Yard at home here but aren’t running in white hot mode which is the negative with him. The other two get claiming rider allowances to help the cause

and will both appreciate any rain with Mystical Knight a well thought of sort in his day and the Honeyball stable purring. Wouldn’t be a surprise to see him bring his liking for further to the fore if the ground does soften but on balance I prefer Well Smitten who gets a pound off the fav (and a 13lb turnaround with the fav from LTO when he unseated with a tired jump when beaten) and wears blinkers for the first time which might sharpen him. Stable in form and won’t be far off on paper with that aspect of suitable ground making him the one I would back if the rains were to come with the sort of hailstone vengeance that they arrived on Saturday.


0.4pt LAY on GOODTHYNEAWAY (around 1.6 : no greater than 2.0)

(0.1pt BACK on WELL SMITTEN if it comes up softish ground.)


This month plays so far:

1st:   -0.455 (-0.455) LAY @ 2.82

2nd:  -0.3    (-0.755) LAY @ 1.6

3rd:   -0.628 (-1.383) LAY @ 2.76 : BACK @ 34.0

4th:   -0.8    (-2.183) LAY @ 3.4 : BACK @ 7.0

5th:   +0.095 (-2.088) LAY @ 1.95 : BACK @ 9.0

6th:   -0.3    (-2.388) LAY @ 2.2

7th:   +0.095 (-2.293) LAY @ 1.94 : BACK @ 5.1

8th:   +0.19  (-2.103) BACK @ 1.95

9th:   -0.825  (-2.928) LAY @ 3.25 : BACK @ 8.4


11th:  +0.195 (-2.733) LAY @ 2.92

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 99/143 = 69.23% :   BACKS: 23/92 = 25%



Get out the Gate



King of Comedy – Entered for St James Palace,Ascot (June 18)

Land of Legends – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)


Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for the Yorkshire Cup (May 17) & Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Sir Dragonet

Hiroshima beat two home and was 10 lengths off the winner so not a hopeless

case but not going to be winning the Derby either you wouldn’t have thought. Didn’t

really do the pace of the race and the time was 8 seconds quicker than he would

have liked which tells you his sights will be lowered now. There’ll be more wins

in him and I may well come back to him at the lower levels as he stayed ok and

wasn’t disgraced. Just not top drawer! Hey ho. Always worth a try. Back to the day

to day grind of getting the profits back rolling!  



Stands at 10.8478 points.

Staggered acca number 10: (LEG 3)

Will shout soon as next leg emerges


Good Luck with your bets.


The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz


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