BOZmail – 12th MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service 

AT THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL (DAY THREE) 

including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THURSDAY MARCH 12th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 22.4036 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 10.0441 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 5.01 points

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LESS IS MORE: Thursday play

1-55 HEXHAM

So much to say! Firstly absolutely delighted for one of the gentleman of the game – fellow Brummie John Hales – who suffered the terrible injury to Maire Banrigh yesterday (he, like I, thought she was travelling like a winner at the time) and secondly, prepared to put Harry Skelton back on my Xmas card list! I still blame him for yesterday but I didn’t know about his long association with the Hales family and he repaid them with one of his better rides. Actually think probably more credit due to Paul Nicholls’ training achievement but fair play to Harry. Got the jumping right on this one and followed his instructions perfectly.

On the betting front, it was a classic LIM sting and classic BOZ also that I got my staking wrong way round again and forgot to mention that the forecast (£39.77) was worth covering as well. A good race for those learning the importance of LIM price watching. I gave you some heads up yesterday on the backs but it was the lays where we really scored here and well done indeed if you snaffled the lay in the 1.2s after Chacun Pour Soir’s defection was announced. Also if you increased your stake as that allowed. The main plus however that if Defi had won, calculated bank management liability would have been just 0.22 (based on the 1.28 I managed) and that is as important as being on the winner here. I always preach that winning at this game ain’t so much about picking winners. It’s about how you manage your losers and getting best lay price on a sting like that differentiates success from failure long term. Well done also if you got the 22 or 23 available on Politologue last night. That also crucial even though it was overridden by the declared non runner.

And so, despite having no luck in his ante-post Cheltenham picks, the Boz finally has his winner at Cheltenham 2020. Must admit I shed a tear when I heard that Maire Banrigh was in hospital and couldn’t have been happier to hear she’ll be ok. Politologue has been great but Maire Banrigh is a serious champion of the future. Make no mistake about that! Worth a notice that Hobbs’ horses are out of kilter too. Sporting John ran no race – same as Defi. Don’t go risking your winnings on pre festival banker Thyme Hill now. Some doubt cast over him methinks. 

On to Thursday and although I may have just had my rule one BOZmail winner for Festival week, I continue the look for one at the away meets as is my wont and quite like what I’ve found here at Hexham. Keep the River might have been an unlucky faller LTO at Musselburgh and gets to race at same weight and with a better conditional jockey on board in Danny McMenamin but there is a big unknown for him on the ground and his two decent races on form both achieved on good ground so although that LTO suggests he is in good fettle, there is no proof he was going on to win in the ground and allied to the slightly strange step back in trip for such a stout bred stayer, he comes with, if not outright negatives, then distinct question marks for me as a short priced fav. I look elsewhere. Not the strongest race in depth which is perhaps why the market goes short on Jardine’s horse but I prefer the distinct heavy ground form of Princess Mononoke and more significantly that of Lostnfound who also steps down in trip but in his case to a distance he has won at in this ground and that is thus less mysterious and more likely to play to the proven stamina in pedigree.

Stable clocking high on the in form runners over last 14 days table and Thommo very much the local lad here booking a decent conditional in Blair Campbell and on the back of a decent show LTO in a better class race at Sedgefield. Small stable so keep an eye on the exchange trading price. We might get some value there. 

Recommendations:

0.2pt LAY on KEEP THE RIVER (around 2.5)

0.1pt BACK on LOSTNFOUND

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 19/31 = 61.29%  Backs: 8/24 = 33.33%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for MARCH:

1st:    +0.196 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.2

2nd:   -0.04   (+0.156) Lay @ 1.4

3rd:    +0.047 (+0.203) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 7.4

4th:    +0.146 (+0.349) Lay @ 2.1 : Back @ 5.2

5th:    -0.435 (-0.086)  Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 34.0

6th:    +0.735 (+0.649) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 12.0

7th:     -0.34 (+0.309) Lays @ 4.9 & 1.66 : Backs @ 9.0 & 24.0

8th:     +0.22 (+0.529) Lay not matched : Back @ 3.2

9th:     -0.208 (+0.321) Lay @ 1.79 : Back @ 4.1

10th:   -0.1 (+0.221) Back @ 12.0

11th:   +0.833 (+1.054) Lay @ 1.28 : Backs @ 10.0 & 13.0

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op 

Verdana Blue 

Maire Banrigh*  

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Albert Bartlett(Mar 13)

Nordano* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar13) & Kempton (Mar 14)               

Welsh Saint* – Entered for Kempton (Mar 14)

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih – Entered for Kempton (Mar 14)

Magic of Light* – Entered for Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco*Entered for the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

Quick Wave 

It’safreebee – Entered for Fakenham (Mar 13) 

Captain Zebo

Ellens Way

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CHELTENHAM TO FOLLOWS/TRADES & ACCAS for DAY TWO:

1-30 – SPORTING JOHN – 0.15pt BACK @ 7/2

(Backed @ 8.6 : Hedged @ 6.0) = P/L = 0

5-30 – ISRAEL CHAMP – 0.1pt BACK @ 12/1

(Backed @ 15.0 : Hedged in running 0.2pt @ 6.4) = P/L = 0.098pts

Easy hedge on Sporting John again with so much money coming for Envoi Allen and a straight case of an Irish slaughter of the English. Sporting John never in it and always struggling to keep to the pace. Very disappointing. A vast gulf between Irish & English form as gets increasingly an issue at modern day Cheltenham. Also shown in a bumper that Mullins dominates these days. Wasn’t sure I fancied Israel Champ at all but he did me proud running from the front and making the profitable play an absolute doddle. Trading really is the way to play your Cheltenham fancies. I became convinced of it three years ago. 100% sure now. So many do as Israel Champ has done this season. Absolutely invincible throughout the season. Out like a light in the mega competitive arena that is Cheltenham Festival. Off the to follow list for that with profit in the bag!

Also taking a 0.01pt WIN DOUBLE on the two as my acca play of the day – LOST

CHELTENHAM TO FOLLOWS/TRADES & ACCAS for DAY THREE:

2-10 WELSH SAINT – 0.05pt BACK @ 8/1

         JATILUWIH      – 0.05pt BACK @ 20/1

Take the best price you can and hedge when offered preferential odds either before the off or in running.

Both of these in my third division of Cheltenham possible winners (hence the low starting stake) and the race is absolutely wide open. Stick to the trading consistency is the advice. Got my Cheltenham winner in the bag now and still 100% no losers on my trades. How many can say they come out of Cheltenham without a loser? It’s why I do the serious stuff as trades. The accas are more my leisure punts and as ever, they are proving quite wearisome! So not having one on Thursday!!

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WIN YANKEE FOR THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 11/2 (Gold Cup,Friday)

Sporting John @ 3/1 (Ballymore,Wednesday) – 7th

Marie Banrigh @ 12/1 (Arkle,Tuesday) – FELL

Thyme Hill @ 4/1 (Albert Bartlett,Friday)

0.01pt WIN YANKEE : Total Stake = 0.11points 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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