BOZmail – 12th JUNE

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

WEDNESDAY JUNE 12th  2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stands at 43.0503 points after month 6

LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

3-40 FONTWELL

BOZmail rule number six came into play on Tuesday! Whenever the BOZ says a horse has absolutely no chance, time to lump on!! At least I managed to stay off suggesting a back on Agent Basterfield (who has an apt name!) and obviously the withdrawal meant a no play LIM day and a serious line can be drawn through the whole affair!!

Plenty of runners about still on Wednesday so tough for LIM six runner or less rule and although there are a couple of trappy qualifiers at Haydock and Punchestown, I have decided to break my own rule and head to the Handicap Chase at Fontwell – a specialism area of mine bar none.

Not that this is an easy LIM race really and before tissue appeared, I was looking at laying topweights West Wizard –  who won’t be suited by the distance – or to a lesser extent Our Reward who has yet to win a chase and has a rookie claimer on here. Yet to convince with his jumping and does better over hurdles but I did see him run a decent race at Cartmel last year and a reproduction of that form means I’m not over keen to lay him. But ok because although this promises to be a volatile market race and Our Reward or several others might start fav once trading begins in earnest, the tissue has Bermeo at the head of affairs and whilst his price means I don’t want to go in heavy, I am happy to take him on largely because his form over course and distance with Findusatgorcombe in November suggests there could easily be a turnaround there this time out with the Frost horse eight pound better off (including jockey allowances last time) for nine lengths and having improved somewhat since.

The fascinating fact there is that Bryony Frost could presumably have ridden for her Dad but has instead chosen Riddlestown on whom she won two races back but flopped badly LTO carrying the penalty. Back down in the weights here and as a front runner on which Bryony is master, I call the Caroline Fryer horse the value in the race. A fascinating race for plenty of factors because Caroline is a small trainer who does well here but Lawney Hill and Diana Grissell do even better. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mickieblueeyes win despite a complete lack of credible form. Don’t forget that rule six though because he did win a hurdle at Plumpton last year and with Diana Grissell at Fontwell you can take nothing for granted. If you like the price and, like me, will be considering making a market on the race and backing a few of the value possibles to win, I can’t put you off. And I’m not tipping it here! So remember rule 6! (see below if you ain’t clocked it yet. Long term BOZmailers live by that rule!).

I tip Riddlestown because it has travelled a long way for this and has the times and the crack jockey to win and FindusatGorcombe who lives next door and is the form pick and the Bryony booking could be a deflector.

My fear in the race is Mickeyblueeyes who also has a very interesting jockey booking! Watch with interest!!

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on BERMEO (around 4.0; preferably shorter and definitely no greater than 4.5)

0.15pt BACK on RIDDLESTOWN

0.1pt BACK on FINDUSATGORCOMBE

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This month plays so far:

8th:      -0.1 (-0.1) Back @ 4.8

9th:   +1.691(+1.591) Lay @ 2.82 : Back @ 6.0

10th: +0.095(+1.686) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 3.1

11th:  NON-RUNNER NO PLAY

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 109/162 = 67.28% :   BACKS: 28/104 = 26.92%

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Using the 2.74 profit I posted on the French Open Portfolio (without picking the winner until final stage!) as a pot to play in the Wimbledon warm up events – Nottingham,Edgbaston and Eastbourne. Will be attending for a day at each. Usual portfolio approach on a smaller scale. Outrights only. Starting this week with two in the bottom half of the Nottingham draw.

NOTTINGHAM 2019 OUTRIGHTS PORTFOLIO:

0.25point BACK on MAGDALENA RYBARIKOVA @ 9/1

0.25point BACK on DONNA VEKIC @ 7.6 on Betfair exchange

No play so far at Nottingham due to the weather.

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

Commodore Barry

Nietzsche

Caius Marcius

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Moonlight Spirit

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Sir Dragonet- Entered for Irish Derby (June 29) & King Edward (June 21)

Raise You

Charl Brune

Barney Roy – Entered for Queen Anne(June 18) & Prince of Wales (June 19)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points.

Staggered acca number 11: (LEG 1)

Will shout when I’m ready to start another go at the acca

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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