BOZmail 12th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 


SUNDAY JULY 12th  2020 

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 20.2972 points (+0.2972 points)

*************************************************

TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 13.9263 points (+5.9263 points)

*************************************************

OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.485 points (-0.515 points)

*************************************************

SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

******************************************

Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

*************************************************

BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +5.2395 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +9.5271 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 17/24 = 70.83%  Backs : 2/10 = 20%

************************************************************************

LESS IS MORE: 

4-15 BANGOR

Saturday’s Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on CHARLIE D (around 4.0 and as low as you can get to be hedged when appropriate and preferential odds offered)

Laid @ 4.0 : Hedged 0.075pt @5.4 : P/L = +0.0245pt or +0.0294pts 

Saturday’s trades both greened out and I’ll update stats tomorrow when results are known. Big trade in France on Sunday detailed below but the LIM was two handicap Chase qualifiers at Bangor with the one a case of taking on a Nicholls hotpot who should win if he stands up and this one which is more like Friday’s successful comeback effort with five in with a chance against Damut I’m Out who is thus a small lay at around 3.6. On a mark 7lbs higher than has won here at before and has struggled a bit from the mark and has plenty to contend with here.King’s Regulation presents the current stable form threat under a likely front running Bryony ride whilst our old friend Middlebrow has had a wind op and is on a mark he could handle if he does the extra distance ok. Keep an eye also on Sarah-Jayne Davies’ trade horse Sharp Reply at Salisbury tonight because she fields the outsider Murray Mount here and not out of it on paper if the stable start pinging. Miami Present is the three years off the track candidate this time and likely second fav suggesting stable think they have him ready. Definite chance if so. 

Simple oppose the fav day.

Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on DAMUT I’M OUT (around 3.6 or as small as you can get) 

 LIM Scores in July:

1st:  +0.1054   (+0.1054) Lays @ 2.22 & 2.4 : Backs @ 3.1 & 2.56

2nd: -0.126      (-0.0206) Lay @ 1.48 : Backs @ 16.0 & 40.0

3rd:  +0.0232   (+0.0026) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 1.96

4th:   +0.1313  (+0.1339) Lay @ 2.76 : Back @ 4.0

5th:   -0.1         (+0.0339) Back @ 3.0

6th:   NO BET

7th:   +0.098   (+0.1319) Lay @ 2.5

8th & 9th: NO BET

10th: +0.1225 (+0.2544) Lay@ 3.05 : Back @ 5.5

******************************************************************

BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru 

English King 

Ransom

Virgin Snow 

Collinsbay – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for Newbury(July 19)&York(Aug 20)&Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way 

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10) & Curragh(Sep13)

Sharp Reply 

Waseem Faris 

Little Chance

Samwell (FR)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Aleatoric

Check My Pulse

Ginstrelli 

Balagan 

Perle Rose

Ashutor

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat

Beholden

TO FOLLOW/TRADE HORSES FOR SATURDAY:

4-35 SALISBURY – WASEEM FARIS @ 20/1 – 0.2pt BACK – NON RUNNER

8-45 SALISBURY – SHARP REPLY @ 14/1 – 0.2pt BACK

Backed @ 32.0 (averaged) : Hedged 0.3pt @ 15.0 : P/L = +1.96 or +0.098pts

TO FOLLOW/TRADE HORSE FOR SUNDAY:

3-25 DEAUVILLE – MALOTRU @ 40/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Take the best price you can get and hedge as appropriate when preferential odds are offered.

Same criteria for this. Huge step up into top class French racing and a biggish ask to beat Pinatubo et al but not beyond the bounds. Has improvement to find but is a class horse with black type form and was unlucky to meet trouble in running LTO and accelerated in the manner of a top class horse. You might get seriously astronomical odds for your back on this on the exchanges. Hedge for a freebie and shout the boy home. These sorts are definitely coming in in the current climate!

**********************************************************************************

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *