BOZmail 12th FEBRUARY(part two)

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 12th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 19.747 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 8.1029 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.99 points

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LESS IS MORE: Wednesday play

1-45 SOUTHWELL

The trouble with when you want one to come good in this game is that the betting gods work hard to defy you so the emotion has to come out and you must stay rational and accepting of your situation and philosophic that no matter how bad it looks, there is always another day and if you stick to your methods, the tide will surely turn. Badpatchville just has to be endured and the most important aspect is to remain cautious staking wise and do no more damage than is necessary. Losing can always feel worse than it actually is and past four days for me have been mostly a case of seconditis and that’s just one of those recurring traits in racing you have to get used to. The horses you want to win love to run second!

I’ve often said the bit I like most about the every day aspect of LIM is the attritional grind required to keep things on an even keel when things are going against. And so it is. Sleeves have been rolled up past 18 hours since Tuesday’s loser and I’ve worked this race at Southwell inside out not knowing whether I’d be allowed to jump it and get back to my greater comfort zone of NH racing. In the end, Hereford doesn’t look any easier so I’ve kept focus and looked the bones out of this race and decided to put my faith in it despite the element of basement racing that it engenders. What my Dad with his black country humour called ‘dogmeat racing’. Don’t tell the horse welfare guys that one and it is comment more on how you could run this race five times over the next five days and get a different winner each time. Much depends on which horse feels like it.

Such races are always best played from a market value point of view and it being Southwell means that you have to stick with those most likely to be suited by the track and surface. That brings in second favourite Princess Harley but I started selecting this race because I could see the negatives with her. From the same owner/trainer base as yesterday’s pick which ran well, Princess Harley will have her followers as a standing dish round here and a trier on her day but, like many a horse at this level, just as capable of running a stinker as a good one and that would usually be when the price is low.

My main reasons for opposing however are the penalty being carried for winning LTO. Whilst that still leaves her on a mark she has been able to win at in the past,she has clearly developed a love for the basement class 6 grade and this is up from that. Her recent record at class 5 does not inspire and additionally she has also started to run her best races when Southwell surface is classed Standard/Slow and looks unlikely to get that today. Also held on a line through Cold Harbour by Seven Clans and whilst that sort of thing doesn’t hold all that much sway at Southwell and the five different winners on different days theory, it is just another negative for me. I cast Princess Harley aside. Which ought to leave the way clear for the favourite Adjutant and on the face of it, jump trainer of the moment Olly Murphy wouldn’t be bringing her here if it didn’t have a big chance. But neither Murphy nor the horse have record at Southwell to make you comfortable about the price and the recent jumps form the NH maestro has conjured came via a wind op and a visit to the Eunuch doctor and the question is will that improvement translate back to the flat where only all weather win was in basement grade at Wolverhampton and there is a distinct dislike of headgear and cheekpieces on record. The horse is a monkey. Hence the booking of strongman Luke Morris to muscle him round and whilst all that may work to get him to show his class, it is a stab in the dark and so at 13/8 fav, he wouldn’t be a back for me. Murphy has no record of note here either so despite the current form of the yard, 13/8 is very short.Which leaves the front two potentially gettable and thus the ideal LIM race especially if any kind of case can be made for the middle rankers.  

And I like both of them. Seven Clans has that line over Princess Harley through Cold Harbour and runs a solid race round Southwell but I like Tigray’s chance even greater. Top Jock Ben Curtis booked, this is a classic Mick Appleby sort who has been gradually worked back down to his winning mark. Here at Southwell over this distance. Current form doesn’t inspire and doesn’t win often but that’s how we get the value price. He’s an on paper pic but he’ll do for me as I go strategic and double lay to try and buck the downturn. It has worked for me before.

And before I get too gung ho and convincing myself of my invincibility, basement stakes! This is still horse racing in February and it is still dogmeat racing at Southwell!!

Recommendations:

0.15pt LAY on ADJUTANT (around 2.64 : upper value parameter 2.8)

0.1pt LAY on PRINCESS HARLEY (around 3.6 : upper value parameter 3.9)

0.075pt BACK on TIGRAY (around 5.5 or better)

0.01pt REVERSED FORECAST TIGRAY & SEVEN CLANS 

 LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 4/7 = 57.14%  Backs: 0/3 = 0%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for FEBRUARY:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.3

2nd: +0.147 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.28

3rd: +0.196 (+0.539) Lay @ 2.9

4th:  NO BET DAY

5th: NO BET DAY

6th: +0.097 (+0.636) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 15.0

7th: -0.288 (+0.348) Lay @ 1.96

8th:   -0.2 (+0.148) Back @ 2.56

9th: RACING ABANDONED

10th: -0.21 (-0.062) Lay @ 2.4

11th: -0.191 (-0.253) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 14.0

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle & Mares Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Wenceslaus* 

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano – 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication 

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Fakenham (Feb 14) Ballymore (Mar 11) & Albert Bart (Mar 13)

Welsh Saint* 

Normandy Soldier* –

Jatiluwih 

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco – Entered for the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

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ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted. 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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