BOZmail – 12th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

TUESDAY FEBRUARY 12th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stands at 25.83 points after month 2

 

LESS IS MORE: MONDAY US RACING PLAY (11.2.19)

20-53 TURF PARADISE

Hopefully that goes some way to redeeming my reputation with US Racing. I do know a fair bit about it, honest! Have been successfully trading on a daily basis there for 3 years now but I have had problems LIM tipping with it before. I must confine myself to just those tracks where UK odds are widespread and thus tissue is reliable. That rules Parx out I think (although Betfair Sportsbook has it up tonight which may be because of sparsity of today’s fare) which is a shame as that is the best race by race trading track simply because of the low incidence of winning favs on the UK version of the market. Still, you know that now. If you are interested, practice and pursue.

I did have to post yesterday quite close to off time so I hope I gave everyone time to get on. Been able to project ahead tonight. That chance to give the market time to form on Betfair is important though so don’t necessarily feel that you have to post early with this.So much of the LIM process is price and market related. As much as 50% these days. Use the opportunity to watch this market develop. I have enclosed price parameter guidance again to assist in making the bet or no bet decision.

I got some 13/2 on Zitman after I’d posted yesterday. How far would he have won by if he hadn’t jumped at the start? Had to admit that I feared deja vu when I saw him do that but the race time sectionals actually suggest he clocked a normal time. More that Thulean was not at his best I’d say.

And we wipe 50% of the LIM monthly deficit off in one swipe. You see the importance of cautious play and not letting losses mount.I always stake down these days if I feel my pick has been achieved outside the optimum bubble. Yesterday was a thorough bubble job (another reason it arrived late in the day). If I can replicate that here, we’ll be facing a clean slate for when the UK starts back up which is looking increasingly like Wednesday.

Stevie Nicks fans might baulk at laying Go your own way not to win but this is a jockey inspired shortie again and worth taking on at around evens as it is not certain he fully stays the mile. Arrieta is the topjock in this field and he’ll presumably go from the front again. The horse has speed and won its race over 4f but couldn’t see it out last time on mile debut with Blakes Lucky Star just behind. That one was ridden well off the pace and may try to sit up closer this time to benefit from stamina pouncing possibilities in the stretch. 5lb claiming rider is a bit of a rookie but comes from jock stock and rode ok LTO. I’m quite hopeful of a form reverse here. Others in with a shout include fellow four year olds Cash Pilot and Daniel Run. Both have won at the distance so have that edge and Cash Pilot is a give all sort so that he has a strong shout if close enough in the stretch. Indy Outlaw can also be given a shout but is a bit exposed these days whilst Egoista might be slightly preferred as the sort yet to show best and also on that LTO form with the fav and just behind Blake’s Lucky Star.

Wouldn’t say this is as strong a bubble pick as last night’s with the Arrieta presence meaning the fav could just lead all the way here if that stamina lasts out. The doubt about stamina however does make him opposable at around even money and Blake’s Lucky Star my back to try and sort the February deficit out in one low risk bash.

 

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on GO YOUR OWN WAY(around 2.0 and no greater than 2.75)

0.1pt BACK on BLAKE’S LUCKY STAR (around 6.0)

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 44/60 = 73.33% :   BACKS: 8/40 = 20%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 14.5375 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Ryanair Chase (Mar 14)

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 12) & JLT (Mar 14)  

Itchy Feet * – Entered for Supreme Novices (Mar 12)

Frodon * – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14) & Gold Cup (Mar 15)

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12) & Queen Mother (Mar 13)

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Benatar

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  – Entered for Punchestown (Feb 10) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication * – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Valtor – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14),Magners & Gold Cup (Mar 15)&National (Apr 6)

Ruby Yeats

Lostintranslation* – Entered in JLT (Mar 14)

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12)

Happy Diva

Elegant Escape – Entered for Gold Cup (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Kaiser Black

Le Richebourg* – Entered for the Arkle (Mar 12) & JLT (Mar 14)

Parlour Maid

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.75 points.

Staggered acca number 5: (LEG 3)

Awaiting next weapons grade selection. Will shout when it appears.

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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