BOZmail – 12th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 12th 2018

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

 

LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

1-50 HEXHAM

An appealing six runner handicap chase once more where I had expected Inchcolm to perhaps be odds on and if so, I was contemplating a biggish lay. 11/8 stays my hand a bit as the horse is in fine form, likes the track and has best Northern jockey Brian Hughes on his back. Stable also in fine fettle with a 40% SR over the past fortnight. There is plenty to take him on with however and the double penalty for the last couple of wins does make him vulnerable. The step back in trip also a negative as he only ran Alto Des Mottes down at the business end LTO and meets that opponent on same terms here where the distance and ground favours ADM. Soft ground not great in Inchcolm’s back form.

The downside for Alto – who would munch him on old form – is stable, albeit small and thus few runners, hasn’t had a winner in 3 months. Puts me off the back at a smallish price but LTO was best run in a long time so hope that ADM is coming back to himself by degrees. Dick Darsie and Onderun have both been running in better races than this and the former holds Inchcolm on form from last Boxing Day. That was last time he ran a good race however but he also is coming in to his time of year. Then there’s McGinty’s Dream who is out of the handicap and gets a shed load of weight ( a stone off Inchcolm) and was only 5 and a quarter lengths behind at level weights three runs ago at Hexham. A possible at a big price.

No firm idea which might dethrone Inchcolm but percentage chance someone will and worthy still of taking on to half of stake I was contemplating had he been odds on.

 

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on INCHCOLM

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 10/11 = 90.90%

                                                          BACKS: 1/7 = 14.28%

 

Please note that due to personal circumstances LESS IS MORE will not be posted until early morning for Thursday’s racing

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

 

Redditch post mortem completed and manager Paul Smith stated his firm belief that was Redditch’s worst performance since he took over. They started well enough and should have been two up after twenty minutes with a crossbar denying them but then fell foul of switching off. All three goals conceded were poor with the first a result of Jamie Ashmore’s absence at right back and the other two attributable to goalkeeper Francis’ aversion to coming for his crosses. Good shotstopper. Not keen on aerial dominance in his box. That remains Redditch’s Achilles. They did shade the first half but lost their way second half – first time the half time team talk hasn’t seen them come out re-energised since Smith arrived. Missed an open goal in the 94th minute with the game gone and that summed them up. There was also a discipline fracas in the centre circle at 1-1 after which they seemed to lose focus. Might also be an issue.

Bottom line they should have won but didn’t so The Boz lays off them for time being to see how they handle the Xmas period. I would expect a bounceback but not a given now and certainly no longer grade A bet after that. We had landed previous seven bets on the Bozmail however so no complaints and the good run had to end somewhere. Just shouldn’t have been there.

 

STAGGERED ACCA NUMBER 2:

(remember that stake of successful first leg bet is always returned directly to bank and that stake for leg two is simply the winnings from leg one.)

 

Starting a new Staggered acca this week on an occasional betting medium of mine.The PDC World Championship Darts kicks off with the serious stuff on Thursday. Meets my number one criteria on the golden rules below.

It’s a back to lay in the outrights on Joe Cullen at 100/1. Staking just 0.1pt and expect him to sail through his first match and will plan a hedge back at some point to be advised in the days thereafter. Take the price now with the bookmakers and get ready to hedge as advised on the exchanges.

 

Those who like to follow the darts might also be interested in two other outsiders I’ve had recommended at tasty prices – namely  Krzysztof Ratajski and Rob Cross. The former is 200/1 as I write and it was a toss up which I plumped for but my analysis of the draw brings me down marginally in favour of Joe Cullen who is in the slightly less demanding quarter and has excellent current form coming in.

 

Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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