BOZmail 12th DECEMBER

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Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

SATURDAY DECEMBER 12th  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 121/171 = 70.76%  Backs : 34/107 = 31.77%

1-57 HEREFORD

Been tough choosing the play for Saturday despite several LIM qualifiers and I remain in bank management mode to reflect my less than confident decision that I’ve got it right at all choosing to play when finding a winner to back has been thwarted.

This is a race more to lay the fav in. Le Patriote has the experience of fences but has to give weight to two classy hurdlers who can be expected to take advantage if they jump ok on chase debut. That weight is tempered by the claim of Charlie Hammond but Elixir De Nutz would still look to have enough to take advantage if taking to the game. Not staking up however as both that one and Nicholls’ Fast Buck do also have the question mark of long absences to overcome. That issue can always go either way. So not a strong play day once more.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on LE PATRIOTE (around 2.5)

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Parramount

Tamar Bridge

Wild Polly 

Straw Fan Jack 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Young Wolf 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo – Entered for Carlisle (Dec 13)

Defi Sacre 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive – Entered for Ayr (Dec 14)

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Prettylittlething 

Boothill 

Lilly Pedlar

Getaway Luv

Across The Line

Al Dancer – Entered for KingGeorge(Dec 26)

For Pleasure 

Shan Blue – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Shang Tang

Snow Leopardess 

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy) 

Ga Law – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16,17 & 18)

First Flow 

Get Your Own

Thyme Hill – Entered for Ascot (Dec 19) & Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Floressa – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16)

Cheddleton

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NH TO FOLLOW/TRADE HORSES for SATURDAY:

12-20 DONCASTER – DEFI SCARE @ 9/2 – 0.2pt BACK

1-50 CHELTENHAM – AL DANCER @ 13/2 – 0.2pt BACK

1-22 HEREFORD – PRETTYLITTLETHING @ 14/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Get the best prices you can and hedge as appropriate and/or when preferential prices are offered.

Defi Sacre would be my nap of these three and I leave it to you whether you gamble or trade him. I tend toward the latter but am happy to use my 50% hedge before the off on him with the proviso to hedge further in play and also go for the Profit at the Death options (1.1 and 1.01 lay) if they look likely to be appropriate to what I see. There will be a keen eye on his jumping after the fall LTO that may well lean toward caution.

Mega competitive as you’d expect at Cheltenham and although I’d fancy Al Dancer a bit, he’s short in the betting and realistically would be seen as having a sound each way chance. So a clear trade before the off for me in the way I do things now taking as short as I can in my hedge leaving some for the 1.1 or 1.01 Profit at the Death play if STD has him in there coming over the last. Remember that ITV coverage is roughly 8 seconds delayed compared to fast internet speed TV coverage if you are leaving your profit at the death decisions until the final moments of the race.

Prettylittlething is only a small fancy as she does like this track but has been overall disappointing this season and this constitutes her last chance to score a win on the list. One I will again be seeking to hedge before the off at the best hedge price I can get.

0.01pt WIN ACCA on the three just in case and because it’s nearly XMAS!! Might be hedging that if it’s still going strong after leg 2!

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)

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LIM Scores for December:

1st:   +0.098   (+0.098) Lay @ 3.2

2nd:  +0.098 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.04 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   NO BET

4th:    -0.16    (+0.036) Lay @ 1.8

5th:    -0.308  (-0.272) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 8.0

6th:    +0.147 (-0.125) Lay @ 2.66

7th:    +0.147 (+0.022) Lay @ 2.24 : Back @ 8.0

8th:    -0.374   (-0.352) Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 9.0

9th:   +0.7056 (+0.3536) Back @ 7.0

10th:  +0.049  (+0.4026) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @ 9.4

11th:  +0.098  (+0.5006) Lay @ 4.5

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +53.0806points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 32.8714 points (+12.8714 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 50.1497 points (+42.1497 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.2085 points (-0.7915 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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