BOZmail – 12th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

FRIDAY DECEMBER 13th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 64.8785 points after month 12 (+44.8785 points profit)

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STAGGERED ACCA FINAL 2019 P/L SCORE:

= -0.6points

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +16.5652 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +68.425 points

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LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

1-00 BANGOR

It wouldn’t be an out and out shock if Bob Ford won this after the way he trounced a moderate field at Uttoxeter LTO and the 5lb claim that Harry Teal gets will help shoulder the 7lb penalty where it was not a factor in the conditional jockey’s event LTO. That said, two of the main rivals here – Rocco and King Uther – also have good claimers on board and whilst Rocco has a mark to defy and King Uther a fall on chase debut to over come, both look to have Bob Ford’s measure on recent times and old Bob is a twelve year old now and old horses always have a struggle to back their wins up but this boy even more so on the formbook as his wins have always come when fresh and after a lay off as indeed the Uttoxeter win was. All points to him finding it tough to win again here in this better race against hardier types who to a man can outpoint him on times. Knockoura does come out similarly in that respect but has youth and improvement very much in his favour whilst the horse I might have been backing in this at the prices is Serosevsky – a former to follow horse from his time over hurdles behind Francky Du Berlais. That form hasn’t worked out especially well and it may prove to have been better looking at the time than it later proved to be but that said, Serosevsky did win an impressive handicap hurdle for us in ostensibly a similar class of race to this. Second time after wind op here and he always looked more a chasing type but in truth he has looked far from happy over big fences so far added to which this ground wouldn’t be his ground on what he has shown so far. He is also still working off the penalty for that hurdle win but getting there slowly and were he to run a good one here, he could get back on for the future. Just the jumping that needs to impress. If it improves, he could beat Bob Ford who I think will be a market drifter too so likely to be a get on early bet.

You will be aware by now of BOZmail rule number six and my mentioning one but not (on balance) backing him has often been an invitation to Murphys Law in the past! 

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on BOB FORD (around 2.8 : upper value parameter 3.3)

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 209/316 = 66.13% :   BACKS: 56/211 = 26.54%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:   +0.245 (+0.245) Lay @ 2.5 

2nd:  -0.36   (-0.115) Lay @ 2.44

3rd:   +0.096 (-0.019) Lay @ 3.1 : Back @ 9.0

4th:   NON RUNNER

5th:   +0.144 (+0.125) Lay @ 2.0 : Backs @ 4.5 & 21.0

6th:   -0.081 (+0.044) Lays @ 2.2 & 5.6 : Back @ 6.0

7th:   +0.898 (+0.942) Lay @ 3.13 : Back @ 7.04

8th:    -0.526 (+0.418) Lay @ 2.88 : Back @ 4.1

9th:    -0.2275(+0.1905) Lay @ 1.91

10th:   +0.245 (+0.4355) Lay @3.35

11th:    +0.047 (+0.4825) Lay @ 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

12th:    NON RUNNER

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC 

Kaizer* 

Tea Clipper* – Entered for Ascot (Dec 21)

Nube Negra 

Black Op – Entered for Stayers Hurdle (Mar 12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* 

Wenceslaus* – Entered for Lingfield (Dec 17)

Flic Ou Voyou 

Thyme Hill* 

Nordano 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Floressa* 

Vinndication –Entered for Ascot (Dec 21) + King George & Gold Cup!

Lostintranslation* – Entered for King George,Ryanair & Gold Cup

Cat Tiger – Entered for Lingfield (Dec 17)

Welsh Saint* – Entered for Bangor (Dec 13)

Normandy Soldier – Entered for Hereford (Dec 14)

Ribble Valley* 

Kid Commando 

Jatiluwih

Soaring Glory

Esprit Du Large

HORSE TO FOLLOW AT WARWICK on THURSDAY:

12-50 – WELSH SAINT @ 7/4 – 0.25pt BACK – WON

(Backed @ 2.65 : Hedged in running @ 1.16) = +0.3725 points

That went as it should with a fantastic ride given by Nico who was always confident he’d pick the Skelton horse up even six lengths behind on the turn in as he saw numpty jockey Harry Skelton going for home way too soon. We may perhaps have been granted a favour with Maire Banrigh being a non-runner although to be fair to him, Harry is good on strength. Just a shilling short in the brains department! He might have been on the best horse here but we shan’t know from that ride. 

My nerve on the trading front did break a tad as Major Dundee started staying on before the last and I covered the possibility of Welsh Saint falling or tying up although to be fair neither looked likely.

Look a bit of a twit when you do that kind of caution and it romps in or the one you’re worried about falls at the last (as happened here) but it has saved the day for me a few times and it only takes a few to pay for the 0.04points (£4) that it cost me here. It’s me being me. But another one to you if you stayed off the trade! 

Welsh Saint stays on the list and that’s a boost to the Cat Tiger  (and Up The Straight) form for next week. I have introduced an asterix upsides now all those To Follow horses that have won for us on the list this year. Been a few past couple of weeks. Worth noting an asterix horse because it means it impressed even more in winning, and thus staying on the list, than the race which got it on in the first place.

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PLANS for the 2020 BOZmail:

The main development for next year is an annual subscription service only which will become available for purchase from December 1st 2019 and will be limited to first 150 purchasers. Membership will be closed when that number is reached or on January 31st 2020. Activity will begin on 1st February 2020.

The 2020 service will not be covering horseracing during January 2020 nor September 2020 as statistics have shown these to be negative months for LIM.

The 2020 BOZmail cycle will thus be a 10 month cycle completing on December 31st 2020.

The reason for annual subscription membership only is so that all members will be at same bank management level throughout. This enables The Boz to practice greater profit reinvestment in his staking levels (thus increasing overall profitability). Something that has not been possible in the 2019 cycle where new members were joining all the time and members were thus at varying bank levels throughout – leading The Boz to be more cautious in his staking levels than was ideal.

Membership of the 2020 BOZmail is recommended for those with some experience of how the service works (at least a month to six weeks)  although new members will be admitted up to the subscription closing date on January 31st 2020 if places are still available. First chance to purchase subscription however will be made to current members only. The service will only be advertised to non members after December 31st 2019 if some places are still available. The capping of numbers for the service is hopefully self explanatory to those who have experience of the service.

There will be some changes to content although the main focus will remain on the daily LIM service and the to follow trading advices in UK horse racing. Tennis coverage of the women’s Grand Slams will be limited to Wimbledon and the French Open only in 2020. There will be ad hoc accumulator advices throughout the cycle as they arise. The staggered acca approach practised in 2019 however will be discontinued. Simply hasn’t been as successful as hoped.

Never afraid to cull its dead wood is the BOZmail!

There are plans to introduce a paddock watching element to the service and to organise various days at the races during the year for those interested in advancing paddock watching skills and using these as an enhancement to their punting profitability generally. Details of these days will be available to BOZmail annual subscriber members only and will come at no extra charge (other than responsibility for paying own course entrance fee). The Boz is also publishing a guide to UK paddock watching in 2020 and will thus be in attendance at all UK racecourses at some point during the year collecting material for the book.

If you have any questions or queries about 2020 BOZmail annual membership at this stage, please feel free to contact The BOZ direct as always via email (garyboswell@hotmail.com). TGH Trading will be in touch in the coming weeks with personal invites to all current members to purchase first chance 2020 membership detailing cost etc. Opening date for purchasing 2020 membership will be December 1st 2019. First come,first served. 

With thanks to all who have supported the service in 2019 and here’s to a highly profitable and enjoyable 2020!

Cheers

THE BOZ

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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