BOZmail – 12th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY AUGUST 12th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 55.451 points after month 8 (+35.451 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +4.7952 points

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LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

2-45 CATTERICK

Today’s email query of the day. “How come BOZmail selections always do better when caution is advised and tend to lose whenever the selection is harder supported.”

Answer. See BOZmail rule six. I been doing it now close to 13 years and whilst it ain’t always the case that more confident selections go awry, it is uncannily true that those I express more caution over tend to do well. No answer why that is. Some bizarre quirk of my bio chemistry maybe. How I got my nickname ‘the tortoise of the tipping world’ any road. Any attempts to blast into the profit stratosphere tend to fail whilst the slow cautious growth and the sneak back into profit tends to succeed. I’m used to it now. At the point of tipping Saturday’s strong advice, I was very bullish.By the time of the off I was looking for ways to limit damage. In Sundays, I had little interest or faith at point of tipping. By the off, it was an absolute cert. Welcome to my world!

Monday’s LIM has had a lot of thought put in to the Catterick card with six of the seven races qualifiers and I thought for a moment it was time to launch my alternative to the staggered acca which is the daily LIM rejects acca whereby I pick a selection to win from the races I’ve looked at in my LIM sift and combine in a small stake daily acca. Wouldn’t happen everyday and by the nature of it several of the selected winners will be short priced or favs – i.e. the ones I don’t want to lay in my LIM selected race.Kermouster would have been on yesterday’s one and you’ll have noticed that it happens a lot where I call the winner in a race read but don’t tip it. Time to start trying to reap the benefit of that I’d say.

It wouldn’t be every race looked at either necessarily. Only those where a clear race read has emerged. Tough races can be discarded. So with five Catterick races (plus one at Windsor) rejected to get the one I am playing LIM, you’d have thought there would be a decent LIM rejected back acca to play aswell but in fact there is not. I have only one other race on Monday where a clear race read has emerged and that’s the last race sprint at Catterick. Favourite does look vulnerable there but a ‘dogmeat’ race so the back is tough to be sure of and whilst I also considered a daily lay acca, it was the only one of those I was strong on also alongside this one. Could have done some more work once I’d settled on this one as my LIM play but there is also the desire to have one last crack at a staggered acca in the US open tennis before I switch and so, no daily acca for Monday. I’ll come back to that concept at the appropriate time.

Meanwhile, today’s LIM play which seeks to Lay tissue fav Desert Point to pay for a speculative punt on Fillydelphia. I may have lost my marbles fancying the Liam Bailey charge but at 66/1, I can’t resist giving it a go. Does have back form in the conditions and over course and distance off a mark a fair bit higher than this and also two recent runs at the course and distance that were ok so on paper not out of the question. Probably needs the front two in the betting to misfire but neither look comfortable on the advertised wet ground so that also not out of the question. Of the front two, I prefer First Flight whose stable boasts a good in running % and who won well two races back aswell as coping ok with the dire ground at Haydock on Saturday which bodes ok for his chance. He is value of the front two but of course could be a declared non runner in the morning hence me going conservative on the race, stake wise. Really just want to have a crack at FillyD but Desert Point does look a fav to take on given his profile since coming to this country. Looks to be a hurdle prospect but was clumsy at that LTO and, like I say, does look possibly suspect on the ground so very short at odds on. 4/6 in some places and thus likely to be very short if First Flight pulls out. Down in class and Tudhope in the saddle so obviously could win if the race is as bad a one as it can look with negative hat on but in a positive light  and on form, I ‘d also say a classic LIM. On that basis do I play with caution given that my current form ain’t great! 

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on DESERT POINT (around 1.92 or shorter : No greater than 2.3)

0.1pt BACK on FILLYDELPHIA ( at 67.0 or bigger) 

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This month plays so far:

1st:       +1.244(+1.244) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.8

2nd:      -0.5465(+0.6975) Lay @ 1.99 : Back @ 3.3

3rd:       -0.024 (+0.6735) Lays @2.08 & 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

4th:       +0.045(+0.7185) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 11.0

5th:       +0.196(+0.9145) Lay @ 2.08

6th:        -0.48 (+0.4345) Lay @ 3.4

7th:        +0.39 (+0.8245) Lay @ 1.69 : Back @ 11.0

8th:        -0.4425(+0.382)  Lay @ 1.55 : Backs @ 6.4 & 4.1

9th:        +0.245 (+0.627) Lay @ 2.2

10th:       -0.655 (-0.028)  Lay @ 1.71 : Back @ 5.6

11th:       +0.147(+0.119) Lay @ 4.4

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 143/213 = 67.13% :   BACKS: 42/145 = 28.96%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Qipco Cup at Ascot (Oct 19)

Sir Dragonet – Entered for Curragh (Aug 16) & York(Aug 21) 

Raise You 

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman 

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick 

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in the Hungerford,Newbury (Aug 17) & Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7)

Miss Celestial 

Deirdre – Entered for the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)

Piedita

James Watt

Lord of the Lodge – Entered in the Gimcrack at York (Aug 23)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.22 points.

Staggered acca number 17: (LEG 1)

Will shout when the final staggered acca first leg emerges. Have an alternative approach use of the bank lined up to start in the Autumn. Never afraid to admit defeat.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricastf or a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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