BOZmail 12th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY AUGUST 12th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 21.4376 points (+1.4376 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 14.5927 points (+6.5927 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.705 points (-0.295 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.53 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +6.7363 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +11.0239 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 39/50 = 78%  Backs : 6/23 = 26.08%

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LESS IS MORE:

4-05 WOLVERHAMPTON

Start of the quieter second half of the week as forecast but I aim to keep trickling some trade profits in via LIM until we get back to the traditional approach again over jumps on Sunday. That remains my modus operandi this month. Take no chances on the flat. Start playing a bit harder over jumps.

I select King Frankel in this as an initial lay. The Johnston Chase that Dream has the experience and looks to me to be the stable preferred but I also actually fancy Envega for the race.

Small early lay on the fav which I then take on in increments if they come for him early as I think they may. Hedged out when appropriate. Modest gains only is the aim here.

Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on KING FRANKEL (around 3.25 to be hedged as and when appropriate and preferential odds are offered. Preferably before the off)

8-10 PERTH (race not run when published)

Welcome relief from the gloom on Monday. Didn’t get the prices I wanted but on a winner is the main thing. Well done those who also worked out the forecast. That will be part of my second half of the year recovery programme once the NH consistency kicks in ( not quite there yet. Still a few steps forward and a bit of a step back!). Also picked up on another big tool for the NH recovery programme which is the jockeys Mick Fitzgerald coaches. Our TV pundit friend is bringing on a seriously good school of claimers now and is a very good coach and a good exponent of the importance of self belief if you saw him talking after our winner on Monday. Good advice to us all.

So LIM gets a quick repair job. Fingers crossed we can still do that August boost exercise I mentioned. Looks like it won’t be achieved by playing every day but I intend to be selective for a few weeks now to give it a chance. The NH action is getting closer to consistency. Sadly the fall of Croco Bay in the race highlights the downside still. A horse running at his wrong course by necessity I feel. Sad news for connections on such a good old servant and condolences to all concerned there.

We move on to Tuesday night at Perth.

I did look long and hard at the Novice Chase at 5-05 as the only official LIM qualifier at the meet and without another bet to go at, I would have gone there. Taking the fav on involves some risk (long distance traveller – is that a positive or a necessity at the moment? – hard to say) but I quite like the play and Dr Hooves is a possible back.

But I still want to stay tight at this stage and see a back to back success to convince me NH consistency is not far away before I take too many risks. For that I’ll stand by my long term investment in Lady Bowes. Not really an LIM race being a bumper again and one where the fav is the main and a strong danger on form (given that there are also horses involved it is impossible to assess) so stake has been the main wrestle having decided that I’m with LB as part of my long term investment plan. With more in the pot, I’d be tempted to go strong but on balance this is a belief bet more than anything. The belief being that she’ll land me a mighty prize at some point if I keep the faith. That I intend to do.

There are some good portents. Ground is currently good to soft and more thundery showers forecast between now and the off which should suit. Not so obviously a plus for Headscarf Lil – the main danger. They are fairly evenly matched on what form we’ve got – LB’s run at Carlisle versus Lil’s at Wetherby favours us slightly. Lil however does have a smart run at Musselburgh behind Zakharova on good ground on her record and Hughes on board makes her dangerous and a worthy odds on shot perhaps.Not laying that to keep my liability down. I’m happy to see Charlotte on LB. Quite apart from the 7lb claim she brings, it means the stable are serious. She is their number one now and the ride she gave on Lough Kent last week when stable money was down was decent. Just bumped into one there and was unlucky and the 16/1 down to 11/2 was mainly each way money anyway I’m told. LB is probably an each way play too really but I’ll not bother with that at the prices. I believe in her (flighty madame though she can be and will need Charlotte to teach her a thing or two here perhaps. Tendency to go on and off bit needs addressing) and stable/jockey likewise. I also believe in my ability to spot one and I’m sure the way she stayed on at Hexham and Carlisle makes her one of them. The more rain we get the better. She has big feet! So prayers and rain dances will all help!

And enjoy the ride. This game is long term. For me. Patience required and discipline when things get tough as they’ve got this year. I’m not going daft betting wise on balance. I shall enjoy roaring her in though if she runs well!

Recommendation:

0.125pt BACK on LADY BOWES (around 3.8 or better if you can get it)  

LIM scores for August:

1st :  NO BET

2nd : +0.0886  (+0.0886) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   +0.0245  (+0.1131) Lay @ 3.75

4th:   +0.385    (+0.4981) Lays @ 3.75 & 3.3 :Backs @ 15.0 & 3.75

5th:   +0.0671 (+0.5652) Lay @ 2.38 & 14.0 : Backs @ 19.0 & 4.0

6th:    NON RUNNER

7th:    +0.049  (+0.6142) Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 7.0

8th:    -0.475 (+0.1392) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.4

9th:    NO BET

10th:  +0.441 (+0.5802) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 8.0

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Ransom

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way 

Battleground – Entered for  Curragh (Aug 22&Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar – Entered at Chepstow(Aug 14)

Custard The Dragon

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Lord Condi 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo 

Pisgah Pike

El Presente

Hiconic

Young Wolf

Sirobbie

Little Jessture

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour

Samsons Reach

Leoncavallo – Entered at Pontefract (Aug 14)

Longhouse Sale

Oscar Rose

NH TO FOLLOW TRADE on the flat FOR TUESDAY

5-30 HAYDOCK – LEONCAVALLO @ 5/1 – 0.15pt BACK

Backed at 4.4 (averaged) : Hedged 0.25pt @ 2.52 (averaged) : P/L = +0.1274pts

Was a bit slow out the blocks on this one and may have left it too long before publishing but I did get the popularity with punters bit right so the hedgeback was indeed a doddle. The 5/1 was long gone when I got to it and I didn’t average out at 4/1 either although I did try. It moved very fast through that spell as it sometimes does. 

Was down to 7/4 within the half hour. How it can go sometimes. Well done if you got one of the bigger back prices. 6/1 briefly on offer with the fixed odds guys if you scan them. I didn’t see that. 5/1 lasted up to about the time I published but not much long after given that exact times you receive and I dispatch can sometimes be an hour apart. 

End of the day, we get what odds we get and content with profit made as best we can.

Not always perfect! And then there was the race itself…… what made you of that???

He stays on the National Hunt to follow list!! Oscar Rose joins him.We are still in strange times!

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  (+2.7744points)

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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