BOZmail – 11th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 11th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.0715 points after month 9 (+37.0715 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +11.8667 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +56.5195 points

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LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

4-20 UTTOXETER

Market knew more than me again on Tuesday and more September turnaround factor involved with the requisite upping of guesswork that comes at this time of year in races where code form is challenged. It has caused me to suspend LIM throughout September in the past and I thought I’d come armed with better ammo this year after a decent score last year but not being born out at the moment. Just going to have to be stronger in my choice of races (fought shy of opposing Beau Sancy but that was a mistake) and more circumspect with staking. Not in the mood for any kind of extended losing streak to kick in. 

This handicap chase is interesting and I’ve got a handle on it and have been waiting for odds to emerge before I decide how to play. For three in Midnight Maestro,Elkstone & Beni Light and against three in Greybougg (needs softer) Still Believing (needs further) and Samson (on too high a mark).

Beni Light is very interesting returning as a dual easy winner from the point field under the handling of an impressive in form trainer. I’d want double figure odds but that couple of stone weight allowance makes him a distinct possible if he handles the return to Rules. Midnight Maestro is the class and has had form franked by TopoftheCotswolds. Seemed to be coming back to himself in that race. Elkstone carries lightweight and is a longish price and is on a mark. Stable one I like and jockey booking good but no winners from last 49 runners and very quiet in runners front at the moment so I’d sort of want to see the form return to the stable but am not against a risk if the price is right. Prices just come in.

Recommendations:

0.25pt LAY on SANSOM ( around 3.5 : no greater than 3.8)

0.15pt BACK on MIDNIGHT MAESTRO

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This month plays so far:

1st:    -0.24 (-0.24)  Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 34.0  

2nd:   -0.25 (-0.49)  Back @ 2.2

3rd:    NO PLAY DAY 

4th:    +0.49 (+0.0) Lay @ 1.9  

5th:    -0.44 (-0.44) Lay @ 1.88    

6th:    -0.19 (-0.63) Lay @ 1.38

7th:    -0.542(-1.172) Lay @ 2.12 : Back @ 9.0

8th:     -0.6 (-1.772) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 12.0

9th:     +0.34(-1.432) Lay @ 1.75 : Backs @ 11.0 & 18.0

10th:   -0.483(-1.915) Lay @ 2.38

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 155/237 = 65.40% :   BACKS: 44/160 = 27.50%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points. Transferred now to starting bank for SHORTLIST SYSTEM PERMED ACCA BET which will start sometime this month.Still watch only for the time being but encouragement again at Worcester on Tuesday with the three of the last four winners and would probably have made last four but for an interference with the well punted Shanksforamillion who was left with just too much ground to makeup. Couple of good rides in the three winners and jockey bookings is a factor we have built in to the narrowing down process for the Shortlist.Uttoxeter wouldn’t be a first rank course but is on the subs bench so we watch and see again for a couple more days before making a decision what to pursue. I have been looking at the bets on offer and the daily chosen Tote Jackpot meeting is a way for us to go when conditions are right (that wouldn’t be that often as many of the system tracks are lesser tracks) and narrowing to single selections is also being considered. Placepot might come in on occasion when expected dividend would be rewarding but in general I have rejected the Quadpot as returns there don’t justify playing it with a permed acca approach. Watch and see still for a while. Been ten winners from the three days so far. Just a case of mustering those together and omitting the losers! It can be done with practice! Nap selections of the day will be featured in bold next few days.

THE BOZMAIL 2019 PERMED ACCA from the Shortlist System for 11/9/19 at Uttoxeter:

2-05 Mead Vale – His Dream – Realta Dawn

2-40* Mason Jar – Champagne Mist

3-15* Go Another One

3-45 Zubayr – He’s a Goer – Doubly Clever

4-20 Midnight Maestro – Elkstone – Still Believing

4-55 Embole – Joy’s Gift – Tingo in the Tale

THE BOZMAIL 2019 PERMED ACCA from the Shortlist System for 10/9/19 at Worcester:

2-10 Monty’s Award (2nd) – Caroline’s Charm (3rd) – Malangen (Fell) – Regulation (U)

2-40 Landsman (3rd)

3-10 Skeaping (3rd) – New Millenium (1st) – Hallings Comet (U) – Camlad Kingfisher(U)

3-40 Sunset Showdown(1st) – Danboru (2nd) – Beau Sancy (3rd)

4-10* Queens Magic (1st)

4-45 Cardy (5th) – Shanksforamillion (2nd)

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Miss Celestial – Entered at Doncaster (Sep 13) & Curragh (Sep 28)

Deirdre – Entered at Leopardstown (Sep 14)&Longchamp (Oct 6) &Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

James Watt – Entered for Ayr Gold Cup (Sep 21)

Lord of the Lodge 

Mum’s Tipple – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 14) & Newbury (Sep 21)

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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