BOZmail 11th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet &

Daily coverage of The 2020 French Open Women’s Tennis tournament @ ROLAND GARROS (Live on ITV 4)

SUNDAY OCTOBER 11th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +31.1974 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 25.3261 points (+5.3261 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 35.0568 points (+27.0568 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.9635 points (-0.0365 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 86/122 = 70.49%  Backs : 22/75 = 29.33%

2-45 NEWTON ABBOT

Whilst the tennis and the Cesarewitch delivered, the LIM was a farce again with both favs withdrawn and Longhouse Sale jumping like a toilet brush. One day soon, we will have a proper day again!

Might not be Sunday as this is a toughy sort of race to play in but nothing better on offer once more. I’d be in the Al Dancer camp as a good when fresh horse rather than the Master Tommytucker camp as he has seriously clumsy feet for a chaser. Trouble is if he does put in a fault free round, Nicholls’ horse is a justifiable fav on times and form and probably class too. Wouldn’t back him at 11/10 however with three falls in six outings. Just a minimum stakes day for me in terms of risk management however as the business continues to be elsewhere on the sheet and LIM is forced to go into recovery and profit protection again just to be able to hold its head up! Very frustrating. Patience must be shown. Its day came on Friday and presumably will again. The lack of consistency this year has been most unusual and wearing on the nerves.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on MASTER TOMMYTUCKER (around 2.1 or lower)

0.05pt BACK on AL DANCER (around 3.75 early price with BET365)

LIM SCORES FOR OCTOBER:

1st: NO BET

2nd: +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 4.1

3rd:  -0.18     (+0.016) Lay @ 2.2

4th:  +0.147  (+0.163) Lay @ 4.4

5th: NO BET

6th: NO BET

7th:  -0.54     (-0.377) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 16.5

8th:  -0.392  (-0.769) Lay @ 2.12

9th: +0.441  (-0.328) Lay @ 1.25 : Back @ 8.0

10th: -0.1     (-0.428) Back @ 2.4

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Iga was exceptional once more and despite a slight blip letting the 3-0 lead go back to 3-3 first set as Kenin brought out her fists, just five games lost in the match once more and an exemplary case of keeping her cool on the occasion. She is indeed the future of the game and the matches coming next year against Andrescu, Barty and Osaka are seriously to be savoured. She has such a big hit now as well as showing excellent court coverage and reading of the game. Magnificent talent and the Boz’s third big price winner of the French Open in the last eleven years. Still kicking myself that I didn’t have any 150.0 before the off though! I blame the lack of a layable fav for my reticence but also of course not even I expected 6-1 6-2 v Halep. Beyond even my visionary power that! Seven matches without losing a set and never more than five games lost each match. At nineteen years of age. Unprecedented. 

And so the French Open betting haul ain’t massive but in the context of a really weird year, it sits well alongside the US Open plus to play its part in trying to make the 2020 BOZmail score respectable!

FRENCH OPEN ACCAS =   -0.4pts

FRENCH OPEN TRADES = +1.3121pts

FRENCH OPEN OUTRIGHTS PORTFOLIO = +1.8014pts

FRENCH OPEN OVERALL SCORE = + 2.7135pts

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Oct 24)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Plainchant(FR)

Aramhes(FR)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou – Entered @ Newton Abbot (Oct 11) – NO BET

Soaring Glory

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike – Entered @ Fakenham (Oct 16)

Young Wolf – Entered @ Fakenham (Oct 16)

Sirobbie      – Entered @ Uttoxeter (Oct 16)

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo 

Oscar Rose – Entered @ Hereford (Oct 13) & Fakenham (Oct 16)

She’s a Rocca(heavy) – Entered @ Carlisle (Oct 15)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius 

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Leapaway  

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Redford Road

Not That Fuisse(good/good to soft)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething

Wenceslaus

NH HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY:

3-35 NEWMARKET – LEONCAVALLO @ 10/1 – 0.25pt BACK – 6th

Backed @ 21.0 : hedged 0.125pt @ 15.5 : 0.5pt @ 6.0 in play : P/L = +0.3675pts

Well, the starting price on the exchanges (some 26.0 before the off) and the way he ran made for an excellent trade opportunity and in my case, with half hedged before the off, I got much the same as those who backed each way with a payout on the 6th  offers. There was a moment two furlongs out where he looked like he might be the one to stay and grit it out on the softish ground as he kept finding for Mullen but then the fav swang in to the picture along with a few others and it became clear the ground wasn’t that soft and he was out of the 1.01 frame (I had him posted though just in case!) and left to grit it out to keep 6th. Decent showing I thought. The fav obviously the work of the new training maestro – Mr Mullins. Leon hopefully goes back over jumps now for the rest of the winter campaign. He has more races to win there and stays on the list. Longhouse Sale I think comes off after today. Poor round of jumping in another decimated line up race mucking LIM about once more. He has done his winning for now you feel and can come off the list for a spell.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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