BOZmail – 11th NOVEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY NOVEMBER 11th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 60.481 points after month 11 (+40.481 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +14.6057 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +62.668 points

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LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

3-15 KEMPTON

Wrong again Sunday I’m afraid. Newtide’s class told despite Secret Reprieve doing as it said on the tin and improving over distance and running up to form and value in the race.But not winning! Have to take that with LIM sometimes. Just a shame it happened here as we were developing November momentum. On the back foot a bit again now. Need to stop the slide now but a trickyish day again on Monday with my two to follow horses both odds on and thus no value. I had expected to play in the 1-20 Carlisle but Ballymoy is very short given how he jumped LTO so I’ve consigned that to a small To Follow bet and come instead to this competitive Mares Chase where Definitelyanoscar is a decent fav but can be taken on at around 13/8. Her chase debut at Huntingdon was run lickety spit and she was off the pace for most of it but got a good ride, put in a decent round of jumping and was staying on past tired horses at the end, Looks sure to be stronger up in trip but is competitive here given that you can make a case for all six and thus she is very much a candidate for value lay at 13/8.

The Kings Baby is my idea of the winner with the booking of the champ looking significant and Harry Whittington’s string coming into form over the past seven days with a 50% in running to form percentage and a winner at Ffos Las on Sunday. Ratings have her ahead of Oscar and my time figures – whilst nip and tuck – also have her marginally ahead. Could be close and Oscar was the better hurdler so that speed could come into play here but chase experience firmly in the Kings Baby’s favour and that more likely to be the decider over Kempton’s obstacles. The quicker ground also more likely to favour the Whittington horse. 3lb weight received also helps.

Molly Carew could be involved if fit and up for it after the lay off but I am working on value forecast advices at the moment with a colleague and the one for that if Definitelyanoscar’s jumping is not up to scratch or the ground too quick is Kentford Mallard who jumped violently right LTO and should do better going right handed here and wouldn’t be far away with a clear round receiving a stone from the fav.  

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on DEFINITELY OSCAR (around 2.5: no greater than 2.8)

0.1pt BACK on THE KINGS BABY

0.01pt STRAIGHT FORECAST – THE KINGS BABY to beat KENTFORD MALLARD

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 189/287 = 65.85% :   BACKS: 52/191 = 27.22%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    +0.343 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.6

2nd:   +0.245 (+0.588) Lay @ 2.62

3rd:    +0.098 (+0.656) Lay @ 4.2

4th:    NO PLAY DAY

5th:    +0.096 (+0.752) Lay @4.4 : Back @ 3.85

6th:    +0.147 (+0.899) Lay @ 1.75

7th:    +0.196 (+1.095) Lay @ 4.2

8th:    +0.343 (+1.438) Lay @ 2.1

9th:    -0.475 (+0.963) Lay @ 2.9

10th:  -0.3425(+0.6205) Lay @ 1.97 : Back @ 5.0

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.75 points. 

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Al Dancer

La Bague au Roi – Entered for the King George & The Gold Cup!

Unwin VC 

Commodore Barry 

Kaizer 

Tea Clipper 

Nube Negra 

Black Op – Entered for Stayers Hurdle (Mar 12)

Ballymoy 

Verdana Blue

Maire Banrigh – Entered for Bangor(Nov 13)

Wenceslaus 

Tokaramore 

Flic Ou Voyou 

Thyme Hill

Nordano 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes – Entered for Ayr (Nov 13)

Floressa 

Vinndication –Entered for King George & Gold Cup!

Lostintranslation – Entered for Haydock (Nov 23),King George,Ryanair & Gold Cup

Cat Tiger – Entered for Lingfield (Nov 12)& Haydock (Nov 23)

Welsh Saint 

Normandy Soldier

Virginia Chick – Entered for Exeter(Nov 13)&Sedgefield (Nov 14)

Ribble Valley

Kid Commando

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HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on MONDAY:

12-20 KEMPTON – TEA CLIPPER

1-20 CARLISLE – BALLYMOY

Both odds on but with negatives to overcome. So no value in either single even as a trade. Tea Clipper has to concede a penalty and Ballymoy has to put last time’s sticky jumping behind him. That race has worked out well with 3rd Commanche Red running well in a group race on Saturday and Nube Negra hosing in. Windsor Avenue is a tough rival here though and Ballymoy will have to be on mettle and jumping slick. Both to follows could win though so a simple low risk 0.25pt WIN DOUBLE for the Boz.

PLANS for the 2020 BOZmail:

The main development for next year is an annual subscription service only which will become available for purchase from December 1st 2019 and will be limited to first 150 purchasers. Membership will be closed when that number is reached or on January 31st 2020. Activity will begin on 1st February 2020.

The 2020 service will not be covering horseracing during January 2020 nor September 2020 as statistics have shown these to be negative months for LIM.

The 2020 BOZmail cycle will thus be a 10 month cycle completing on December 31st 2020.

The reason for annual subscription membership only is so that all members will be at same bank management level throughout. This enables The Boz to practice greater profit reinvestment in his staking levels (thus increasing overall profitability). Something that has not been possible in the 2019 cycle where new members were joining all the time and members were thus at varying bank levels throughout – leading The Boz to be more cautious in his staking levels than was ideal.

Membership of the 2020 BOZmail is recommended for those with some experience of how the service works although new members will be admitted up to the subscription closing date on January 31st 2020 if places are still available. First chance to purchase subscription however will be made to current members only. The service will only be advertised to non members after December 31st 2019 if some places are still available. The capping of numbers for the service is hopefully self explanatory to those who have experience of the service.

There will be some changes to content although the main focus will remain on the daily LIM service and the to follow trading advices in UK horse racing. Tennis coverage of the women’s Grand Slams will be limited to Wimbledon and the French Open only in 2020. There will be ad hoc accumulator advices throughout the cycle as they arise. The staggered acca approach practised in 2019 however will be discontinued. Simply hasn’t been as successful as hoped.

Never afraid to cull its dead wood is the BOZmail!

There are plans to introduce a paddock watching element to the service and to organise various days at the races during the year for those interested in advancing paddock watching skills and using these as an enhancement to their punting profitabilty generally. Details of these days will be available to BOZmail annual subscriber members only and will come at no extra charge (other than responsibility for paying own course entrance fee). The Boz is also publishing a guide to UK paddock watching in 2020 and will thus be in attendance at all UK racecourses at some point during the year collecting material for the book.

If you have any questions or queries about 2020 BOZmail annual membership at this stage, please feel free to contact The BOZ direct as always via email (garyboswell@hotmail.com). TGH Trading will be in touch in the coming weeks with personal invites to all current members to purchase first chance 2020 membership detailing cost etc. Opening date for purchasing 2020 membership will be December 1st 2019. First come,first served. 

With thanks to all who have supported the service in 2019 and here’s to a highly profitable and enjoyable 2020!

Cheers

THE BOZ

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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