BOZmail 11th NOVEMBER

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Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 11th  2020

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +45.2072 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 29.6839 points (+9.6839 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 45.2238 points (+37.2238 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.4485 points (-0.5515 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 106/144 = 73.61%  Backs : 29/92 = 31.52%

3-10 EXETER

I’m not saying Master Tommytucker is a relaxing watch but I think I got the class angle right again (class jockey likewise – there is seriously a lot to like about the way Harry Cobden goes about his business) which also makes Al Dancer an interesting ante-post bet for the King George. You read it here as my winning streak makes nine again. All systems go for a second ten out of ten in recent weeks!

My angle for Wednesday is jockey centric again as I’ve struggled to find a rock solid candidate for my ten out of ten despite numerous LIM qualifiers. The landscape is certainly improving in that quarter generally but we are also into prime NH form time as well now so odds compilers are also getting sharper and a lot of races are being won by the designated fav.

Fiddlerontheroof does look a tough nut to crack here as the one with the chase experience and a recent run but his form did take a bit of a knock at the weekend with the defeat of If The Cap Fits and he does take on two pretty serious rivals here under the stewardship of Messrs Johnson and De Boinville. You’ll have noted that Fiddlerontheroof gets the services of Mr half asleep at the start Robbie Power who I don’t usually have many issues with. A very strong jockey who rides a good finish but perhaps carrying a slightly distracted mind at the moment – working away from his wife and kids as he is – and in any case not quite the sharp cookie that Messrs Johnson,Cobden and De Boinville are. He might get out thunk again in this one if he isn’t totally on top of his game. Sporting John in any case is a horse I greatly admire and of more than equal match albeit that he has Chase debut and lay off to overcome. Class again though belongs to him on my figures and with a few credible LIM covers in this race too, I consider it a similar play to Tuesday’s with perhaps a smidgeon more in the way of confidence.

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on FIDDLERONTHEROOF (around 2.25 or as low as you can get)

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LIM Scores for November:

1st: +0.049 (+0.049) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 8.8

2nd: NO BET

3rd: +0.1543 (+0.2033) Back @ 2.05

4th:  NO BET

5th:  +0.098   (+0.3013) Lay @ 1.98 : Backs @ 9.0 & 51.0

6th:  +0.4312 (+0.7325) Lay @ 3.4 : Backs @ 6.8 & 13.5

7th:  +0.196   (+0.9285) Lays @ 4.0 & 3.35

8th:  +0.098   (+1.0265) Lay @2.1 : Back @ 8.4

9th:  +0.4606 (+1.4871) Lay @ 3.7 : Back @ 4.2

10th: +0.294 (+1.7811) Lay @ 2.04

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Wild Polly

Straw Fan Jack 

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike – Entered @ Cheltenham (Nov 15)

Young Wolf

Sirobbie    

Soldier of Love (3m 2f)

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy) – Entered @ Ayr (Nov 11)

Charm Offensive 

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Mrs Hyde 

Return Ticket(flat track)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething – Entered @ Newcastle (Nov 13)

Boothill

Al Dancer – Entered@ Cheltenham (Nov 14) & King George (Dec 26)

Onemorefortheroad – Entered@ Taunton (Nov 12)

Stormy Ireland -Entered for Bangor (Nov 11)

Eldorado Allen

For Pleasure

Fidelio Vallis (softish ground)

Ucanaver

Ribble Valley

Shan Blue

Snow Leopardess

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy)

Summerville Boy

Ga Law

Hitman

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on WEDNESDAY:

12-35 AYR – She’s A Rocca @ 11/2 – 0.25pt BACK

1-20 BANGOR – Stormy Ireland @ 8/13

Get the best prices that you can and hedge as appropriate and/or when preferential prices are offered.

As with the weekend’s pairing, I fancy Stormy Ireland will be too short a price to make trading worthwhile and it’s a small fixed odds double to include him only unless the price should go out to evens and beyond. Don’t expect that in the light of the form Messrs Nicholls and Cobden are showing.

She’s a Rocca can be traded at a reasonable price. Handicap debut so never a great time to bet only and conditions aren’t all ideal with ground probably not testing enough and a decent favourite to have to try and beat. Jockey booking and course form are in her favour however and she has been improving steadily since she started jumping and I have no doubt the inaugural hurdling win is not far away now. Not a hefty expectation that it’ll be here though so trading for me. As with Defi Sacre at the weekend, I shall angle to get a favourably long initial price to give scope for some decent either way profit and a go at in running trade as well if the portents look positive. Certainly any sign of significant rain in between now and race time gets me starting to think the win here could become possible. I certainly expect a good run.

1 x 0.05pt WIN DOUBLE

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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