BOZmail – 11th MAY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

SATURDAY MAY 11th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stands at 40.8925 points after month 5

LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

2-50 ASCOT

Not calling this a strong enough advice to include on the staggered acca and another difficult day for me to feel bullish about and so the wise thing is to sit on my hands and my pocket a while longer to wait for the tide to turn.

Have given this my treatment however to keep me oiled,and to prevent going rusty, I do consider Barsanti the lay despite holding Salouen in this race last year on firm ground. Barsanti is a clear firm ground horse whereas Salouen used the benefit of this race last year to run a cracker in the Coronation on soft and that form should see him win this. The slight doubt is whether he comes out of the lay off less impressively than Barsanti which is my reasoning for going modest and staying out of the next leg of the acca. A watch and see day which applies to my Derby outsider also. See below.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on BARSANTI (around 2.7; not greater than 3.0)

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This month plays so far:

1st:   -0.455 (-0.455) LAY @ 2.82

2nd:  -0.3    (-0.755) LAY @ 1.6

3rd:   -0.628 (-1.383) LAY @ 2.76 : BACK @ 34.0

4th:   -0.8    (-2.183) LAY @ 3.4 : BACK @ 7.0

5th:   +0.095 (-2.088) LAY @ 1.95 : BACK @ 9.0

6th:   -0.3    (-2.388) LAY @ 2.2

7th:   +0.095 (-2.293) LAY @ 1.94 : BACK @ 5.1

8th:   +0.19  (-2.103) BACK @ 1.95

9th:   -0.825  (-2.928) LAY @ 3.25 : BACK @ 8.4

10th: NO PLAY DAY

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 98/142 = 69.01% :   BACKS: 23/92 = 25%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

King of Comedy – Entered for St James Palace,Ascot (June 18)

Land of Legends – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Edaraat

Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for the Yorkshire Cup (May 17) & Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Hiroshima – Entered for the Lingfield Derby Trial(May 11) Derby (June 1) & Irish Derby

Sir Dragonet

TO FOLLOW INTEREST ON SATURDAY:

2-30 LINGFIELD – HIROSHIMA – BACK @ 100/1 or greater – 0.05pt each way

And you can decide for yourself whether you trade in running. I probably shan’t. After not going official tip on my Grand National Tricast, I am following my Derby hunch as a reparation despite the current form I’m in.

And this really is one of those that might be spectacularly right but more likely hopelessly wrong. On paper, Hiroshima is clearly tenth best of ten which the ratings confirm. Thing about Derby hopefuls however is that on paper form isn’t worth an awful amount. You are better going with one who impressed the eye and I’ve won at big odds before simply sticking to that adage of going with the one who sticks his neck out two furlongs out and does all his best stuff from then on. Needs to improve on that Southwell run. Goes without saying. Might do. Might be one of those in this field who benefits from the slower ground too. Has credible breeding as a Nathaniel who was the sire responsible for Enable (some speed in the dam’s side aswell which is always a bonus). I’ve seen a couple of others I like in this field on paper but am not getting into that. Just having my modest bit of fun trying to bring a stonker home in the biggie. No feeling quite like that in racing. If you already have some 700/1+ for the Derby as I know a few of you have, you might want to just watch this. If it runs above market expectation, you’ll have a mega tradable ante-post voucher to do as you will with.I’m also going a rare each way for me with this. Hardly ever go each way but a place in this will also be an achievement so be silly not to cover to prevent the possibility of another Murphys strike. A fiver each way feels right. Watch and enjoy!  

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.8478 points.

Staggered acca number 10: (LEG 3)

Will shout soon as next leg emerges

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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