BOZmail – 11th MAY

BOZmail update

Well, those BOZfables at the end of 2019 were designed to warn us of an incoming Government administration that would decide to allow golf courses to re-open on Wednesday whilst forgetting to inform the R&A of the fact!

Talk about control freaks. Devious,secretive control freaks to boot and it now looks set that the BHA’s plan to restart UK horse racing (in line with the rest of the world albeit four days behind France and in acknowledgement that the enlightened common sense of the Australians has enabled them to keep the whole show on the road throughout) on May 15th has also been kiboshed by hidden agendas and that we aficionados must endure further starvation of our life blood. Might now be as late as July 1st we hear so that summer jumping will be able to also become part of the new off course, socially distanced (hopefully not cartoon inspired) version of the sport.

No on course bookmakers (a convenient extra point scored toward the efforts to create a cashless society). No crowds. A chance to get the fan base used to the idea of a cyber controlled, artificial intelligence influenced human/equine sporting interraction. One they can watch and bet on in their bedrooms paying commission instead of tax on their earnings thus streamlining the system and making the horrors of money laundering and tax evasion a thing of the past!

All terribly convenient if you ask me. Incumbent now upon horseracing folk (or the green welly brigade as my wife calls them – having been brought up amongst the grassroots Cheltenham crowd) to play the part of John Lydon and his warbling anti-christ anthem of the 1970s anti-Thatcher era and invent a rebellion akin to punkrock to save our glorious sport from the clutches of the control freaks in number 10. Can you see the Wellies sporting their green Mohicans on the slope at Sedgefield running a Rules meeting in defiance of the kowtowing BHA?  Or will the BHA be in synch with them (don’t hold your breath. The BHA may, like the NHS managerial departments and schools, all now be of the do as the Government tell us ilk). Watch this space. The Boz will be out in any protest meetings that get held in the coming weeks. Getting my old PVC drainpipes out of their mothballs especially for the occasion. One way or another, we’ll get us back in that club that was only formed so that it could be the sort of club we wouldn’t want to join because it was prepared to have us as a member!

Meanwhile, the BOZmail faces the possibility of another two and a half months of inactivity on top of the excruciating two months we’ve already endured. And then the possibility that a resumption will be unrecognisable and need a complete rethink and consolidation period before it can be safely played. This whole year might be designed to put LIM to sleep. It’s a worst case scenario and I might be guilty of my ethnic Black Country pessimism but it is already something I am preparing for. You’ll get the 12 month cycle you paid for. Of that I remain sure. When you’ll get it looks unclear. Anybody doing anything in 2025?

For now, a short precis of what I’ve been doing since I spoke to you last. You knew already that I was getting up early every morning to watch Australian dog racing. Well, I started mixing in the five hours you get on SkySports between 2am and 7am UK time of live coverage Australian horse racing. Including the never before witnessed spectacle of Australian jump racing from Warrnambool. That was a treat.

Betfair always been keen on the country so the full programme has carried on throughout behind closed doors and with exemplary live exchange coverage including inplay betting on the horse racing – something you can’t get with German (or today’s French) coverage due to Betfair’s failure to ingratiate themselves in those countries.

Of course you do have to go to bed at 7pm every day in order to be fresh for the 2am kick off unless you are like the Queen who reportedly gets her valet to prerecord the SkySports action so she can watch it with her cornflakes. Once I work out how you link that to exchange betting I’ll be in touch!

So Boz has been trading live in Oz horse racing for a few weeks now and here to report that I’ve been doing better there than I can in US racing (not hard perhaps as you saw in April). No sign yet of being able to tip in Oz racing although I don’t rule it out in the long term as I become more and more familiar with the scene. The back knowledge won’t be the lifelong one I can bring to UK racing but I have adapted quicker to its UK influenced style than I ever have with US racing which I’ve been trying with for a few years now. Predominantly turf racing might be the difference although I have to say I nearly fell out of bed when I saw the Grand Annual Steeplechase using starting stalls to ensure a fair line for the off. How long before that becomes the norm at UK NH tracks?

The principles I’ve been using for my trading of Oz racing are no different to my basic UK model. I have learned the nuance of jockey influence which is more pronounced than here in the UK. Same need to sort out the wheat from the chaff and I’ve got my list of strong jockeys to have on your side now – some of which I’ve already shared in Penza-Pike-Egan-Bowman et al – but the trend here is for those jocks to go on strong winning sequences (or blowing hot as we call it here) much more frequently than is the norm in the UK. Bowman daily four timers happen regularly with outsiders amongst  so future BOZmails may have jockey inspired Lucky 15 elements therein based on what I’ve observed so far. That’s quite exciting and positive for how the BOZmail may evolve in view of the current UK Government’s influence.

Meantime I practice my philosophy of not trying to pick winners in races (not having a full enough handle on form study here to so do in any case) but instead look for favourites to take on as per LIM teaching using the winnings therefrom for a stab at possible winners of same races at exceptional value prices. As the exchanges allow.

Almost always bigger fields than LIM preaches (hence my doubt about whether I’ll ever be able to successfully tip here) so form study too arduous a task each day and the market only approach I’ve been using successfully at the dogs at work here too.

With the edge I’ve got there in adjacent box favs being engendered in horses with the Betfair’s Timeform write up on each race proving so far very successful in helping sort out which favs have question marks about them and which longshots are worthy of a back. Cross referencing always with the exchange market before my eyes. Fast moving as ever and seemingly not that influenced by the Timeform precis given I suppose that that is only seen by the UK players?? I might be wrong about that but Timeform write ups have a big influence on UK exchange betting which I have watched since the inception. My time at Betfair crossed briefly with the Timeform acquisition. I was leaving as they were coming in. I don’t follow Timeform in the UK because I have my own painstakingly compiled methods to work from here but it is invaluable to be able to read their race previews every race everyday to help me arrive in the markets where my study has disagreed with their assessment. I refer you to Defi Du Seuil at Cheltenham as my evidence. Good as they are, Timeform wouldn’t have him beat hence his meagre price (given that Timeform are actually good overall but well worth opposing if you have good reason!) and the whopping value on my two against him. Both of whom beat him to a pulp. My figures said they would.

So in OZ, I’m working with Timeform for now rather than against them but that’s ok.

Like I say, they are excellent race readers in general (nearly as good as me!!) and may not be being taken that much notice of by the OZ punting fraternity who might think they know their sport a bit better. Like I say, market watching for the past three weeks has tended to suggest that might well be the case giving us a distinct trading edge.

So to precis, in playing Australian horse race markets, the BOZ adheres to the following general principles:

1/ Look for races where the fav (shorter the better) has negatives attached (trying new distance,carrying penalty over previous winning mark,on wrong ground, ridden by inferior or out of form jockey – all the usual caveats). Sometimes the Timeform precis throws these negatives up. Lay the fav to pay for a punt at

2/ Exchange longshot pricers who have been given the Timeform tip up as possible winners. Sometimes as many as five in a race – such are the big fields that typify OZ horseracing.

3/ Compile a jockey list of strong and weak jockeys and pay attention to current form. Jockeys on a hot streak and riding an outsider can be backed. Jockeys from the chaff or on a cold streak on a fav are a distinct negative.

4/ Draw bias does play a big part at some tracks as does race pace more akin to US than UK racing so that winning runs from the rear are commonplace (speciality of Hugh Bowmans) so in running plays at whopping odds following strong jockeys are coming in regularly. Likewise favs outside of the box seat draw can be a huge negative to be aware of. Sometimes my lays on favs are left until after the off in order to see what draw bias unfurls. Laid a few odds on shots successfully who looked nailed on on paper only to look beat after the way they came out of the gate and how the draw bias has manifested. A good thing to watch for.

I’ve started with a £500 bank and take the general back stake of £2 and the general race liability of between £25 and £30 (5 or 6% of starting bank) and have also been utilizing that £40 per day average target winnings/losings  that I also use at the dogs. That’s a personal discipline of mine to ensure I don’t play for too long each day and don’t get involved in the ‘invincibility’ trapdoor or the ‘chasing losses phenomena’ that are the downfall of many an over eager punter. Never be greedy. Deal with the losing days. Stop when you have won or lost enough for the day. Start afresh tomorrow. Build steadily.

All the usual cautious BOZ stuff. Been at it as a pro gambler/trader now since Sept 16 2019 and the period of best profits has been……surprise,surprise during lockdown. March 17 – May 11. Up 15.69% on the previous six months ROI!!

Sometimes being a slave and compiler of LIM can mean taking the Less is More philosophy too far perhaps??

I like Australians. For the past five years I have played in the World Cities League internet chess. I play for Perth Western Australia and during this lockdown as well as making decent cash and nearly dying twice, I have also been crowned the 2020 Perth Chess Club champion (over 1600 grade) from over 400 club members. I was proud to receive the Black Swan Cup this very morning.

There’s a silver lining in everything. Undoubtedly the most shite-arse British Government of my lifetime whose systematic undermining of the NHS for the past ten years (without even getting started on Brexit) has just cost thousands of British citizens their life and now has us locked in a situation where there is no visible horse racing for us to enjoy on the medium to long term horizon.

Yet their policies meant I was able to stay in bed every morning after the Sky Sports OZ racing had finished in order to study my chess. Hence my best tournament result since 1978 when I was runner up in the NatWest Bank Employees closed tournament. Still the strongest event I ever competed in!

Take care. Stay Safe. Play Golf to stay sane and see ya when the anarchists finally get the message and help us restart the country!

BOZ

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