BOZmail – 11th MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service 

AT THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL (DAY TWO) 

including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY MARCH 11th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 21.5706 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 9.9461 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 5.02 points

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LESS IS MORE: Wednesday play

3-30 CHELTENHAM

Altior’s defection makes the Champion Chase the LIM of the day although I did say I’d never lay Defi Du Seuil again! Very short here however and not ahead of Chacun Pour Soir on times whilst the Paul Nicholls pair look very long priced for their chance.

Dynamite Dollars has always promised (previous to follow horse for the BOZmail) and Harry Cobden chooses him while how come Harry Skelton (Boo Hiss) rides Politologue I know not. STD is at the meeting. Very strange. Some dastardly plan from Ditcheat perhaps and the old boy has always been unlucky at Cheltenham. Second to Altior last year and only a length down on Defi here in November giving 3lbs.Strictly speaking, that could turn things. Were it not for the attitude of Defi and the ride he gets from the Geraghty man, I’d be tempted to go strong here. Bank management also says risk not worth taking.

A play though nevertheless. This time the value appears at Prestbury Park with market eyes all very much on the front two. Market watch advised on the backs here.

Should be good value about on the exchanges for both Politologue and DD.

Recommendations:

0.25pt LAY on DEFI DU SEUIL (around 2.1 or less if it gets offered)

0.1pt BACK on DYNAMITE DOLLARS (13.0 or greater)

0.05pt BACK on POLITOLOGUE (17.0 or greater) 

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 18/30 = 60%  Backs: 7/23 = 30.43%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for MARCH:

1st:    +0.196 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.2

2nd:   -0.04   (+0.156) Lay @ 1.4

3rd:    +0.047 (+0.203) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 7.4

4th:    +0.146 (+0.349) Lay @ 2.1 : Back @ 5.2

5th:    -0.435 (-0.086)  Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 34.0

6th:    +0.735 (+0.649) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 12.0

7th:     -0.34 (+0.309) Lays @ 4.9 & 1.66 : Backs @ 9.0 & 24.0

8th:     +0.22 (+0.529) Lay not matched : Back @ 3.2

9th:     -0.208 (+0.321) Lay @ 1.79 : Back @ 4.1

10th:   -0.1 (+0.221) Back @ 12.0

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op 

Verdana Blue 

Maire Banrigh*  

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Albert Bartlett(Mar 13)

Nordano* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication 

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 12 & 13) & Kempton (Mar 14)               

Welsh Saint* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 12) & Kempton (Mar 14)

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 12) & Kempton (Mar 14)

Esprit Du Large 

Magic of Light* – Entered for Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco*Entered for the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ – Entered for the Champion Bumper (Mar 11)

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

Quick Wave 

It’safreebee – Entered for Fakenham (Mar 13)

Sporting John – Entered for the Ballymore at Cheltenham(Mar 11)

Captain Zebo

Ellens Way

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CHELTENHAM TO FOLLOWS/TRADES & ACCAS for DAY ONE:

2-10 – MAIRE BANRIGH – 0.15pt BACK @ 12/1 – FELL

(Backed @ 24.0 : Hedged @ 13.0) = P/L = 0

           ESPRIT DU LARGE – 0.1pt BACK @ 14/1 – FELL

(Backed @ 18.0 : Hedged 0.2pt @ 6.0) = P/L = +0.098

2-50 – VINNDICATION – 0.05pt BACK @ 6/1 – 4th

(Backed @ 8.0 : Hedged 0.1pt @ 2.0) = P/L = +0.049pts

Nobody talking about Maire Banrigh so she was an easy trade done in reverse. Laid early at 13.0 and backed in the lead up to the off at 24.0. So an 11/1 free bet and I was actually getting excited because I thought she was jumping and travelling tremendously. But then whammo. Inexperience of the Cheltenham fences and jockey’s mediocrity in not putting her right taking off way too early on one. Cheltenham never forgives that. Feel sorry for Dan Skelton. It was his chance I’d say. My times were bullish and Notebook ran a stinker. But it’s the canny jockeys that prevail here I’m afraid. Coleman won it showing all his class. Got a nice hedge out on Esprit Du Large who never looked to me like travelling that well but did get into position for a challenge when the hedge was taken. Faded and fell. He also a victim of the brutality that is Cheltenham Championship races. You gotta be tough! 

Vinndication gave us a good run trading at odds on at the finish. Weight told and easy to lay him as I figured he’d only win if others paddled. Shortlist landed the forecast in this race.

2-10 REVERSED FORECAST: MAIRE BANRIGH & ESPRIT DU LARGE – 0.01pt unit stake – Total outlay = 0.02pts – LOST

PERMED WIN DOUBLE:

VINNDICATION & MAIRE BANRIGH – 0.01 pt – LOST

VINNDICATION & ESPRIT DU LARGE – 0.01pt – LOST

CHELTENHAM TO FOLLOWS/TRADES & ACCAS for DAY TWO:

1-30 – SPORTING JOHN – 0.15pt BACK @ 7/2

5-30 – ISRAEL CHAMP – 0.1pt BACK @ 12/1

Usual advice. Take the best price you can and hedge when offered preferential odds either before the off or in running.

Also taking a 0.01pt WIN DOUBLE on the two as my acca play of the day.

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WIN YANKEE FOR THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 11/2 (Gold Cup,Friday)

Sporting John @ 3/1 (Ballymore,Wednesday)

Marie Banrigh @ 12/1 (Arkle,Tuesday) – FELL

Thyme Hill @ 4/1 (Albert Bartlett,Friday)

0.01pt WIN YANKEE : Total Stake = 0.11points 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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