BOZmail – 11th JUNE

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THURSDAY JUNE 11th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 19.7665 points (-0.2335 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = +0.085 points

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = -0.1485 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 2/3 = 66.66%  Backs : 0/2 = 0%

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LESS IS MORE: 

5-30 YARMOUTH

You had to work hard to get the 6.0 on Fizzy Feet but it was worth it as she never looked a likely winner under the weight and that’s a model we’ll see more of in this spell with the bigger fields I’m attempting now. Bigger risk liability wise but increases the chance of putting a decent winning streak together as I inch back toward old form.

No big field on Thursday though and seriously peed off now that they cancelled Bath and are running two four runners races at Yarmouth instead. I hope there’s nothing even more sinister in that than it already looks. Can make us hopeful of getting back to proper LIM sooner rather than later however so good news really albeit that this is another race with all runners coming back from a break and the fitness is guesswork again as perhaps is distance with regard to Jellystone in particular. This was 6/5 earlier in the day when I first looked and I was keen to lay at that price. Beckett had four winners and a second from five runners yesterday after a slow start post lockdown and I figure that’s why they went so short. No clues as to whether he will do distance in his form either. So still very much a lay especially as first four runners from the yard today ran poor and below form and market expectation although did land a winner in the 7-00 at Kempton. Of the front two in the betting though I much prefer Johnston’s You Owe Me who has already proven over further and has form behind my Derby hope English King – simply the most impressive horse I’ve seen out since lockdown. And I mean mega impressive.

So the lay is Jellystone but my original back on Eventful I also stay with despite his price in from 6/1 already. Might drift back out again as not touted by the press. He has run for us already this cycle you may remember finishing a decent second behind the also impressive Prince of Eagles who’ll make the to follow list if Eventful wins this. Looks a possible with distance likely to suit and still the value. Going small stakes again though. Seems wise until the deficit is erased and because of that factor of all runners not having run for over 100 days. Dunlop’s Fighting Don boasts the best stable to runners in form percentage in the field however so we can have some confidence in taking the favourite on with all three opponents having decent paper chance.

Recommendation:

0.12pt LAY on JELLYSTONE (around 2.7 and short as you can. No greater than 3.1)

0.05pt BACK on EVENTFUL (around 6.0)

LIM Scores in June:

5th:  -0.355 (-0.355) Lay @ 2.02 : Back @ 9.4

6th-8th: NO BETS

9th:  +0.048 (-0.307) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 14.0

10th: +0.0735 (-0.2335) Lay @ 6.0

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Frankly Darling – Entered for The Oaks (July 4)

Muker – Entered for York (Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Martineo

Malotru

English King – Entered for The Derby (July 4)

Ransom

Run Wild

Virgin Snow

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93  tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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