BOZmail – 11th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THURSDAY JULY 11th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stood at 43.0503 points after month 6

Stands at 48.248 points after month 7

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS POT TO PLAY WITH AT WIMBLEDON:

Current Total      = +8.8313 points

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Not playing in the semi-finals. If there was a bet there now it would be Strycova as she is the other grass courter left and if she makes final she could win. Fairly big if. She won’t beat Serena in current mode unless Serena catches malaria! She can play through Strycova. Simple as that. She played through Bruno Soares on occasion tonight. Barbora will have shoulders out of their sockets if she goes for all the stuff Serena can hit at her. Unless Serena has an off day and misses lines. She has to have two consecutive off days now to lose the crown she craves. Could happen. Not taking the chance having rescued it once. Might play the final if she loses semi!  

My outrights portfolio for Wimbledon 

My personal position is thus:

Serena Williams: 0.75pt LAY @ 7.8 : 0.2pt BACK @ 17.0 : 0.45pt @ 6.6 

= Current P/L :  +0.02

Rest of The Field: + 0.75 points – 0.6 points – 0.2 points -0.45 points 

= Current P/L:  -0.5

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LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

4-25 DONCASTER

Sorry this is coming a bit later than usual but I went out early to pick the brains of a tipster colleague as I thought Masar might be a lay tomorrow and my bogey horse Dashing Willoughby is the outsider against him (bogey because he wins when I don’t back him) but colleague said he had no opinion on the race so I let him buy the drinks instead and he was charming enough not to mind so now I’m running late! Can’t decide myself if Masar is vulnerable and Dashing Willoughby only wins when I don’t back him so I’ve come back to Doncaster but Corncrake was odds on when I went out and now he’s 5/4. Am less keen taking him on at odds against but he steps up in class and carries his penalty and does look less of a stamina horse than Felix on time figures and breeding.Didn’t beat much LTO and might also not appreciate the quicker ground like Felix should. Felix ran on heavy LTO and that looks form to put a line through. So I’m on Felix but am less keen than I was earlier when prices favoured us more. Good news is Racing Post is napping Corncrake so we may get odds on again if we are patient. I don’t see him as thrown in at the weights. I see a question mark over whether he can carry the penalty against classier and higher rated beasts. My stake recommendation is conservative because of prices now. Be bolder if it goes odds on.

Recommendations:

0.25pt LAY on CORNCRAKE (around 2.3 : no greater than 2.7)

0.15pt BACK on FELIX 

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This month plays so far:

1st:  +1.005 (+1.005) Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 8.6

2nd: -0.636 (+0.369)  Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 4.5

3rd:  +0.145(+0.514)  Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

4th:   +0.145(+0.659) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @11.0

5th:    -0.4 (+0.259) Lay @ 3.0

6th:    +0.88 (+1.139) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.2

7th:   +0.643(+1.782) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 3.0

8th:   +0.932(+2.714) Lay @ 1.33 : Back @ 6.4

9th:   – 0.645(+2.069) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 7.0

10th: +0.196(+2.265) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @6.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 124/185 = 67.02% :   BACKS: 35/124 = 28.22%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate 

Commodore Barry

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Goodwood Cup (July 30)

Sir Dragonet – Entered for the QIPCO (September 14)&Irish St Leger (Sep 15) 

Raise You

Charl Brune

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered in the Juddmonte (Aug 21)

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick

Light Up Our Stars 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.0 points.

Staggered acca number 14: (LEG 1)

Will shout when the next opportunity emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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