BOZmail 11th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 


SATURDAY JULY 11th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 20.2972 points (+0.2972 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 13.9263 points (+5.9263 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.485 points (-0.515 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +5.2395 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +9.5271 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 17/24 = 70.83%  Backs : 2/10 = 20%

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LESS IS MORE: 

8-00 NEWCASTLE

Well that was a satisfactory test back into LIM normality and race reading. Two lockdown factor runners in Day of Roses and Robin Des People who both failed to run as fit animals and so we are not perfectly back at pre lockdown expectation levels but enough to give the race read a chance. That Compadre would beat Mistercobar which he did and that there were a couple of cover horses carrying lower weights who could be competitive which they were. Market suggested Phoenix Rock wouldn’t win which he didn’t (nearly did) and that Pride of Parish was the value in the race as the outsider most likely to stay if he was anywhere near fit which couldn’t possibly be guessed at (although market pointed as he reduced from 12/1 to 9/1) after such a long lay off. From a race reading point of view, I’d say the first four home performed as my read said they would (or might well) whilst the only negative was that I didn’t approach it as I might have with bookmakers moolah in the bank at this point in an annual cycle. With confidence, I’d have backed the value outsider (and chanced his fitness) as LIM demands, I only didn’t because of the doubt the three and a half month lay off from NH racing has created. Never been a three and a half month lay off since summer jumping came into force (can’t remember how many years that is. Maybe at least 30) and certainly never in the lifetime of the practice of the LIM approach. So we are still in uncharted territory but I must admit I feel a lot better about it after that. That went as it should.I got the main bit right. I can be more adventurous with the back as we go on now.Just first to get that happening regularly!

Not necessarily every day for a while though. No NH fixtures again on Saturday but if there is something good to come from this past six week post lockdown period, it is the arrival of the trade version of the LIM to play on the flat whilst confidence in flat racing remains affected by lockdown factor. Performance at Bath of the shortlist system Friday does suggest that volatility still in evidence there. Still so many races where that incidence of horses performing in totally unpredictable ways is just happening. Hands in pockets at such times really.

And in such large fields. Very hard to narrow down. So I remain of the mind that we do stick to trading on Flat only days until such time as confidence in results and race reads comes back there. And the 0.1pt+ profit we made on traditional play on Friday has been replicated on the good days with the trade only approach. At least it keeps daily tick over of profit accumulation occurring.  That’s important from now on I think.

So Saturday is a simple straight forward trade LIM recommendation. The 8-00 at Newcastle is fiendishly tight between all runners especially the top four but Cosmelli and Anyonecanhaveitall’s Plate form from LTO holds sway for me and the one with most negatives and thus the trade lay is Charlie D. Stable and jockey don’t inspire and no form at the track, carrying penalty off lifetime high mark over distance arguably too far on the all weather. Take at lowest you can get beneath 3/1 and hedging at bigger price should be easy enough.

Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on CHARLIE D (around 4.0 and as low as you can get to be hedged when appropriate and preferential odds offered)

 LIM Scores in July:

1st:  +0.1054   (+0.1054) Lays @ 2.22 & 2.4 : Backs @ 3.1 & 2.56

2nd: -0.126      (-0.0206) Lay @ 1.48 : Backs @ 16.0 & 40.0

3rd:  +0.0232   (+0.0026) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 1.96

4th:   +0.1313  (+0.1339) Lay @ 2.76 : Back @ 4.0

5th:   -0.1         (+0.0339) Back @ 3.0

6th:   NO BET

7th:   +0.098   (+0.1319) Lay @ 2.5

8th & 9th: NO BET

10th: +0.1225 (+0.2544) Lay@ 3.05 : Back @ 5.5

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru 

English King 

Ransom

Virgin Snow 

Collinsbay – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for Newbury(July 19)&York(Aug 20)&Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way 

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10) & Curragh(Sep13)

Sharp Reply 

Waseem Faris 

Little Chance

Samwell (FR)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Aleatoric

Check My Pulse

Ginstrelli 

Balagan 

Perle Rose

Ashutor

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat

Beholden

TO FOLLOW/TRADE HORSE FOR FRIDAY:

6-05 BATH – WASEEM FARIS @ 20/1 – 0.2pt BACK

Backed @ 34.0 (averaged) : Hedged @ 11.5 : P/L =  0

That never came off and he ran no better than last time whilst not terrible again. Dead easy trade for a free bet though and more if you wanted. I let it run as a freebie and will do so again if he turns out again tomorrow. One to follow til he springs it!

TO FOLLOW/TRADE HORSES FOR SATURDAY:

4-35 SALISBURY – WASEEM FARIS @ 20/1 – 0.2pt BACK

8-45 SALISBURY – SHARP REPLY @ 14/1 – 0.2pt BACK

Take the best price you can get and hedge as appropriate when preferential odds are offered.

Waseem is obviously a likely non runner after Friday nights exploits but we play again if he does show. Same execution. Likewise for Sharp Reply who is a longshot I spotted staying on takingly LTO under the care of new stable and jockey who may be bringing an old monkey to fruition. Both very clear trades and both best greened out before the off unless you see evidence to suggest the in running gamble can be risked. 

TO FOLLOW/TRADE HORSE FOR SUNDAY:

3-25 DEAUVILLE – MALOTRU @ 33/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Take the best price you can get and hedge as appropriate when preferential odds are offered.

Same criteria for this. Huge step up into top class French racing and a biggish ask to beat Pinatubo et al but not beyond the bounds. Has improvement to find but is a class horse with black type form and was unlucky to meet trouble in running LTO and accelerated in the manner of a top class horse. You might get seriously astronomical odds for your back on this on the exchanges. Hedge for a freebie and shout the boy home. These sorts are definitely coming in in the current climate!

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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