BOZmail – 11th JANUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

FRIDAY JANUARY 11th 2019

  • SATURDAY JANUARY 12th

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

 

LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

2-30 HUNTINGDON

No regrets over the slightly left field play yesterday as The Steward kiboshed his chance with a sloppy jump but  Snowed In did us proud going down just half a length to the screaming red hot Jimmy Rabbitte making him work all the way to the line. I got some 40/1 on the exchanges (in a four horse race!) and hedged out at 3/1 in the protracted battle up the run in so no damage done to my pot and no great damage if you took fixed odds. You certainly got your money’s worth and the pot took only a minor dent. The Boz’s unbeaten lay run also preserved and we go for number 18 on Friday at Huntingdon in the juvenile hurdle with business back to normal.

The fav is disputed in the tissues and likely to be tight between Fret D’Estruval and Beat the Judge but I am clearly against the Alan King horse who looks to me to need soft ground which is unlikely to get on Friday. Beat the Judge will act as useful cover but my back is on Charlie Mann’s Prabeni who gets an 8lb turnaround for 6 and a bit lengths LTO and looks likely to be the one best suited to the faster ground as a previous winner on the flat.

There is a dark horse in the race too in the shape of Westbrook Bertie from Mick Channon’s yard who has been competing at lesser level and might also want the softer ground but had his LTO winning form at Fontwell massively boosted by a stablemate at Hereford last week and the Channon yard at the moment can do little wrong.

So quite keen to oppose Fret D’Estruval who ought to run better than the poor show he put up at Cheltenham LTO but I expect to find outspeeded around this fastish track in a pretty competitive affair.

 

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on FRET D’ESTRUVAL

0.1pt BACK on PRABENI

 

It is still likely that THE BOZ will be nowhere near Wifi on Friday night/Saturday morning but the bet for Saturday is detailed in the Horses to follow section below. I will post an update Friday evening if able but next official post will be Saturday evening or early Sunday morning in time for Sunday’s racing.

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 32/37 = 86.48% :   BACKS: 5/22 = 22.72%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

 

Stands at 15.00 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Willoughby Court *

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Kempton (Jan 12) & Ascot (Jan 19)

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars  

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons *

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  

Benatar *

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication *

Rockys Treasure – Entered at Warwick (Jan 12)

Valtor

Ruby Yeats

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera

 

                                       BETS FOR SATURDAY JANUARY 12th:

2-05 KEMPTON – WAITING PATIENTLY – 0.25pt WIN @ 5/2 if a declared runner.

1-50 WARWICK – ROCKY’S TREASURE – 0.25pt WIN @ 7/4

 

Likely that Waiting Patiently will be a non-runner unless there is significant rain in the Kempton area on Friday and thus saved for next weekend at Ascot. Rocky’sTreasure is a definite runner and has sidestepped the more difficult 3-00 to head the weights in this Listed affair and looks a decent bet. Looking at Thursday’s declarations, it could also be a small field race and if under seven runners, will constitute the day’s LIM play. Going without a lay again! Will confirm this if I get chance on Friday but back to advised stake whatever and remember to get best price you can.

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.75 points.

 

Staggered acca number 4: (LEG 1)

1-00 DONCASTER – TALKISCHEAP – 0.5pt WIN – WON @ 1/2

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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