BOZmail – 11th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

MONDAY FEBRUARY 11th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stands at 25.83 points after month 2

 

LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY US RACING PLAY (10.2.19)

18-10 TAMPA BAY (RACE 2)

Apologies for the Parx effort last night. The tissue I gleaned off a Mexican bookmaker site was hopelessly incomparable with the UK market so we got no lay and only one back on the rank outsider which was just aswell as the Mexican bookmakers did a much better race read than me and I won’t be attempting Parx as a tipping medium again. Just no UK bookmakers other than Betfair covering it so by the time the UK market is formed (more in line with the on course TAB than the obviously clued up Mexican bookmakers) no chance to do an LIM style recommendation via this portal.  The UK fav was a totally different horse.

And because the Irish racing also backfired over the weekend, those that decided to take the six day sabbatical look the wise ones now!

The Boz isn’t a quitter though so I go to Tampa for one more tonight with the express proviso that if I muck this up, I also take a two day sabbatical until UK racing returns. No wish to do irreparable damage to the February LIM score.

I do like the look of this race. Competitive with all but Jiffy Josh in with a squeak and yet Thulean a very short price fav (should get offered some odds on) because of jockey booking. Close on a formline with Zitman from LTO but Zitman was given too much to do that day and has won since in a time that suggests he’ll be bang on the premises again today. His 11/2 with Bet 365 looks a value price with the horse winning well at higher grade since then.

My other back is jockey inspired. Peppi The Hunter has been round the block a few times and hasn’t won for three years now but has run some mighty fine races and holds a sectional time plus that makes the booking of American Legend Mike Allen very interesting. Not that Allen rides that many winners these days but over 2k in his career. Never ridden Peppi before. 5/1 could be a very interesting price on him.

 

Recommendation:

0.45pt LAY on THULEAN (around 2.0 and no greater than 2.75)

0.1pt BACK on PEPPI THE HUNTER (around 6.0)

0.1pt BACK on ZITMAN (around 6.5)

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 43/59 = 72.88% :   BACKS: 7/39 = 17.94%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 14.5375 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing

and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear

with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list

that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel

confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way.

I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Ryanair Chase (Mar 14)

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 12) & JLT (Mar 14)  

Itchy Feet * – Entered for Supreme Novices (Mar 12)

Frodon * – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14) & Gold Cup (Mar 15)

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12) & Queen Mother (Mar 13)

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Benatar

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  – Entered for Punchestown (Feb 10) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication * – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Valtor – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14),Magners & Gold Cup (Mar 15)&National (Apr 6)

Ruby Yeats

Lostintranslation* – Entered in JLT (Mar 14)

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12)

Happy Diva

Elegant Escape – Entered for Gold Cup (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Kaiser Black

Le Richebourg* – Entered for the Arkle (Mar 12) & JLT (Mar 14)

Parlour Maid

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.75 points.

Staggered acca number 5: (LEG 3)

Awaiting next weapons grade selection. Will shout when it appears.

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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