BOZmail – 11th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY FEBRUARY 11th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 19.938 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 8.1029 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.99 points

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LESS IS MORE: Tuesday play

3-15 CHELMSFORD

Well my NH race reading is still ok with Breaking Waves attracting a serious welter of money in a £900k traded race and then running as I’d thought he would. Like a donkey without shoes on! Backed down from 5/1 overnight to 15/8 fav. Pity my weather and market forecasting isn’t matching my NH race reading at the minute and might be guilty of going out too early on that lot. Should perhaps have waited to morning after inspection had been confirmed. Easy to see with hindsight.

No chance to put it right Tuesday as all NH meetings in UK already abandoned again. We stay on the all weather where I have to put my hands up and say I simply got Clap your hands wrong. Not what the doctored ordered at all and only saving grace is the caution exercised. Just not going my way at the moment and no excuses. Only thing to do is grit the teeth and keep working.

An official losing streak and no NH riding to my rescue so caution prevails again. I’ve been hard in to all four qualifying all weather LIMs on Tuesday and can’t say I like any of them greatly but then of course my confidence is dented so just have to keep sticking to the systems and retaining the belief. Lonely old game being a tipster some times.

Chosen this race at Chelmsford where Prince of Eagles has a hefty looking mark for his handicap debut and is another not looking an obvious one to benefit from the step up in trip. Race is also competitive and second fav Cottonopolis looks to have strong chance receiving 9lb and more obviously suited to the distance. Looking for a value back also to properly reverse the fortunes, I’ve landed on Mick Quinn’s Eventful who also looks suited on breeding to the distance, has a second run for the stable after being unlucky and hampered LTO. Brought out again quickly and the stable also scoring 100% on the form in running table at the moment. Times also look favourable and I like the Adam Kirby jockey booking.

Let’s see if that can’t change the way things have suddenly turned against. 

Recommendations:

0.15pt LAY on PRINCE OF EAGLES (around 2.1 : upper limit parameter 2.4)

0.05pt BACK on EVENTFUL (around 6.0 or better)

 LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 4/6 = 66.66%  Backs: 0/2 = 0%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for FEBRUARY:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.3

2nd: +0.147 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.28

3rd: +0.196 (+0.539) Lay @ 2.9

4th:  NO BET DAY

5th: NO BET DAY

6th: +0.097 (+0.636) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 15.0

7th: -0.288 (+0.348) Lay @ 1.96

8th:   -0.2 (+0.148) Back @ 2.56

9th: RACING ABANDONED

10th: -0.21 (-0.062) Lay @ 2.4

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle & Mares Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Wenceslaus* 

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano – 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication 

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Fakenham (Feb 14) Ballymore (Mar 11) & Albert Bart (Mar 13)

Welsh Saint* 

Normandy Soldier* –

Jatiluwih 

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco – Entered for the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

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ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted. 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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