BOZmail – 11th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the two week trial of the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

TUESDAY DECEMBER 11th 2018

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

 

LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

2-10 FONTWELL

Going back a few years, I used to have a real handle on Fontwell and had my best win ever there in 2013 going through the eight race card. The system I compiled has been skewed somewhat however by the insertion of the all weather strip and the ground preference aspect of races is harder to be sure about now. Tomorrow’s forecast soft going will have a considerable stretch of not soft ground during which the dynamic of races can change.

And so I tread with more caution now, still collecting data and trying to put the old system back in place with new elements to allow for the mixed ground conditions.

Despite the negatives, I’m pretty keen on this three runner affair on paper and have a clear third best in what is a fairly tight handicap. I expect course and distance winner Bramble Brook to come in last but hold his price in the betting courtesy of previous attempts here. We saw yesterday that Tizzard’s yard is not firing as well as one might expect for this time of year and the horse is on a high mark for winning this and thus less well treated than the other two. Does have winning form on heavy but not good figures on soft and has enough negatives to be a clear lay.

Choosing between the other two isn’t easy but the value bet is clear enough and Charlie Mann’s Like the Sound gets eight pounds from the very solid fav Scoop the Pot who will take the beating but perhaps has a small chink in his chance on the soft ground which I expect Fehily to have a good go at exploiting. His mount has youth on his side and if he jumps well could easily get competitive.

Scoop The Pot is an ideal saver foil to the speculative go at getting another actual winner on the board!

 

Recommendation:

0.6pt LAY on BRAMBLE BROOK

0.1pt BACK on LIKE THE SOUND

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 9/10 = 90%

                                                         BACKS: 1/6 = 16.66%

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

(remember that stake of successful first leg bet is always returned directly to bank and that stake for leg two is simply the winnings from leg one.)

 

Next attempt at staggered acca will start as soon as appropriate selection emerges. Despite the fall at the second leg on attempt one, starting bank remains intact.

 

Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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