BOZmail 11th DECEMBER

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Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

FRIDAY DECEMBER 11th  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 120/170 = 70.58%  Backs : 34/107 = 31.77%

12-05 CHELTENHAM

Shaughnessy was mighty disappointing. Ran very flat and Hughes kept looking behind as if expecting our lay to be his main challenger. Backed and initially ridden like they were expecting a win but went out like a light. Might be a horse to put a line through for the future. Did get the lay right though. Ground stopped that one who looked dangerous turning in.

So we inch forward for now and same again Friday where I haven’t found much to take on. Hold the Note in this novice chase would be the best in on that form behind Imperial Aura and Galvin but no sign of that in two runs so far this season including the time behind Shan Blue and Snow Leopardess. Went out like a light in both races and I don’t see the extra distance helping here. All the other four can be fancied against him with Fabulous Saga very interesting if he’s fit and ready FTO for Paul Nicholls and The Mighty Don my idea of value in the race. Happygolucky and L’Air du Vent are good quality second favs to take the lay on. Price on Mick Channon’s charge is 7/2 as I write but that’s a bit long and it might pay to delay the bet on this one with several tipsters on him because of that Cheltenham form. The booking of Tom Scudamore and application of the visor might also encourage punters so I’ll be hopeful of laying around 3.4 or lower if poss. Not a huge or strong play again however so bank management in play as I wait patiently for better fare over the weekend. My old mate Captain Zebo entered for Sunday. Been waiting for him!

Super horse who loves it up here in Carlisle!

Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on HOLD THE NOTE (Get the shortest price you can. I’d be hopeful of 3.4 or thereabouts. Up to 4.5 would be acceptable)

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Parramount

Tamar Bridge

Wild Polly 

Straw Fan Jack 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Young Wolf 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo – Entered for Carlisle (Dec 13)

Defi Sacre – Entered for Doncaster (Dec 12)

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive – Entered for Ayr (Dec 14)

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Prettylittlething – Entered for Hereford (Dec 12)

Boothill 

Lilly Pedlar

Getaway Luv

Across The Line

Al Dancer – Entered for Cheltenham(Dec 12)&KingGeorge(Dec 26)

For Pleasure 

Shan Blue – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Shang Tang

Snow Leopardess 

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy) 

Ga Law – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16,17 & 18)

First Flow – Entered for Cheltenham (Dec 12)

Get Your Own

Thyme Hill – Entered for Ascot (Dec 19) & Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Floressa – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16)

Cheddleton

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NH TO FOLLOW/TRADE HORSE for THURSDAY:

1-10 TAUNTON – BOOTHILL @ 5/2 – 0.25pt BACK – WON

Backed @ 3.5 : hedged 0.4pts @ 1.73 : P/L = +0.3263points

You can basically fill your boots every time this fella runs. The gen was spot on and he travelled with the engine of a Ferrari and jumped smart too for a novice. Totally top drawer. Had most of the field off the bridle three or four furlongs out. I shall be studying the form of the three who finished behind in 2nd, 3rd and 4th and all likely to make the to follow list. This was a top drawer race and will provide many winners for the future.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)

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LIM Scores for December:

1st:   +0.098   (+0.098) Lay @ 3.2

2nd:  +0.098 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.04 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   NO BET

4th:    -0.16    (+0.036) Lay @ 1.8

5th:    -0.308  (-0.272) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 8.0

6th:    +0.147 (-0.125) Lay @ 2.66

7th:    +0.147 (+0.022) Lay @ 2.24 : Back @ 8.0

8th:    -0.374   (-0.352) Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 9.0

9th:   +0.7056 (+0.3536) Back @ 7.0

10th:  +0.049  (+0.4026) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @ 9.4

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +52.9826points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 32.7734 points (+12.7734 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 50.1497 points (+42.1497 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.2085 points (-0.7915 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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