BOZmail – 11th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY AUGUST 11th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 55.451 points after month 8 (+35.451 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +4.7952 points

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LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

4-20 LEICESTER

August inconsistency persists and Haydock heavy gets the blame. Weather got so bad here Friday night that I shelved my plan to paddock watch and switched back to reining in and caution mode on the staking front whilst still being hopeful he’d run his race. Then Andrew Balding came on the box casting doubt over ability to stay the distance in the conditions. I used to live by Haydock. As I said yesterday, when it gets heavy there you’re talking meat pie heavy and form can be discarded. 

He had his chance and got his ride and was suitably smashed in the market but his trainer knows his horse.Didn’t do the conditions. I saved myself some stakes but the sheet takes the hit and I gotta go into recovery mode now which is unfortunate in the middle of summer. But when was August last part of a British Summer? World’s a changing!

Not much appetite for Sunday’s fare. Not much of it and unsettling weather still about.

Absolute minimum stakes for my pick which is aimed at just getting the month back in the black so we can attack next week afresh. Silkstone has a couple of positives in course and distance form and conditions but some strong negatives too in stable/jockey form and the fact of more penalty to carry for not winning LTO and having to shoulder topweight. Fallon and Tudhope in opposition so plenty to get him beat with.Bottom weight Kermouster might be my idea of value. Modest play and fingers crossed again!

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on SILKSTONE (around 4.0 : no greater than 4.4)

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This month plays so far:

1st:       +1.244(+1.244) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.8

2nd:      -0.5465(+0.6975) Lay @ 1.99 : Back @ 3.3

3rd:       -0.024 (+0.6735) Lays @2.08 & 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

4th:       +0.045(+0.7185) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 11.0

5th:       +0.196(+0.9145) Lay @ 2.08

6th:        -0.48 (+0.4345) Lay @ 3.4

7th:        +0.39 (+0.8245) Lay @ 1.69 : Back @ 11.0

8th:        -0.4425(+0.382)  Lay @ 1.55 : Backs @ 6.4 & 4.1

9th:        +0.245 (+0.627) Lay @ 2.2

10th:       -0.655 (-0.028)  Lay @ 1.71 : Back @ 5.6

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 142/212 = 66.98% :   BACKS: 42/145 = 28.96%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Qipco Cup at Ascot (Oct 19)

Sir Dragonet – Entered for Curragh (Aug 16) & York(Aug 21) 

Raise You 

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman 

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick 

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in the Hungerford,Newbury (Aug 17) &  Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7)

Miss Celestial 

Deirdre – Entered for the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)

Piedita

James Watt

Lord of the Lodge – Entered in the Gimcrack at York (Aug 23)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.22 points.

Staggered acca number 17: (LEG 1)

0.5pt REDDITCH UNITED to beat BANBURY in Southern Premier Central @ 20/21 (0-0)

Only nil-nil in the league. Did say the draw was value.Always back value.Didn’t cover it. Seriously bad day at the office.

Will shout when the final staggered acca first leg emerges. Have an alternative approach use of the bank lined up to start in the Autumn. Never afraid to admit defeat.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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